Ready. . .or NOT

US Set to Unveil Trump Plan to End Three-Year War in Ukraine 

 

 

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

Trump's team split over how to end war in Ukraine.
The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump is split over how to end the war in Ukraine, NBC News reported on Feb. 5.

Citing U.S. and Ukrainian officials, the outlet said Trump's special envoy for Ukraine, General Keith Kellogg, and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, are pushing for the White House to use its leverage over Russia to force Russian President Vladimir Putin to back down.

Without naming individuals, NBC News said others in the administration are in favor of withdrawing military support from Kyiv in order to hasten the end of the war, effectively forcing Ukraine to capitulate.

• The U.S. does have significant leverage over Russia in economic, military, and diplomatic terms, but questions remain over its willingness to use it.

• Russia’s economy is showing signs of weakness, making Putin more vulnerable than ever to additional economic pressure like sanctions.

Ramped-up support for Ukraine on the battlefield could add to Russia’s mounting losses and further incentivize deal-making, as would uniting support among allies and squeezing Russia on the diplomatic stage.

President Volodymyr ​​Zelenskyy has repeatedly ruled out any deal that would involve ceding territory to Russia, which currently occupies around 20% of Ukraine's territory.

Some of this land was taken during Russia’s 2014 invasion, while the rest was captured following its full-scale assault in 2022.

As Ukraine faces mounting battlefield losses, pressure is growing on Zelenskyy to consider compromises.

• When asked about ceding land to Russia in exchange for peace during an interview with Fox News published Nov. 20, Zelenskyy said Ukraine "cannot legally acknowledge any occupied territory of Ukraine as Russian."

But he has acknowledged that some territories might be returned through diplomacy rather than military means. 

• He also said on Dec. 1 that if Ukraine were to join NATO, the alliance's Article 5 collective defense principle may not apply to Ukrainian territories facing active combat.

Kellogg was officially appointed into his new role on Feb. 3.

"We made a lot of progress on Russia-Ukraine," Trump reportedly said after signing the decree without providing further details.

Kellogg has praised Trump's willingness to engage with Putin, calling former U.S. President Joe Biden's refusal to work with Putin a "biggest mistake."

Trump's envoy said he believes the new U.S. president can broker a satisfactory deal for both Putin and Zelenskyy.

Kellogg told Reuters on Feb. 1 that Ukraine's presidential and parliamentary elections, suspended since the full-scale war began, "need to be done." He argued that holding elections during wartime would strengthen Ukraine's democracy.

The Trump administration is debating whether to secure a temporary ceasefire before negotiating a permanent resolution, with the election winner potentially overseeing future talks with Moscow.

Kellogg also suggested using frozen Russian assets to purchase American weapons for Ukraine, as reported by Fox News on Jan. 24.

Zelenskyy recently emphasized the need to end the war diplomatically in 2025, suggesting that a Trump administration could accelerate the process.

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====BREAK====

It is increasingly clear that retired Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg does not yet have an overall plan to end the war in Ukraine — at least not one that President Trump is willing to support.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Megyn Kelly last Friday that the Trump administration believes the war has been fought to a “stalemate,” and that “it is not going to end with the maximalist goals of either” Russia or Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin disagrees. He remains dead-set on the total destruction of Ukraine and continues to insist on its absolute submission. His advisor Nikolai Patrushev went further: “It can’t be ruled out that Ukraine will cease to exist at all in the coming year.”

Kellogg signaled previously that the US would like to see elections in Ukraine after the ceasefire. 

• In reality, this means that there will be no formal settlement between Russia and Ukraine. . .

The Kremlin believes time is now on its side, especially now that Trump has tasked Kellogg with finding a negotiated solution in 100 days or less.

A quick negotiated solution means ending the war on Putin’s terms. Moscow is still demanding Ukraine’s complete capitulation — territorial concessions, Ukrainian neutrality and unilateral disarmament.

Putin is also insisting that Ukraine would have to “give up its pursuit of NATO membership” and accept “extensive limitations on the size of its armed forces and on the kinds of weapons systems it is allowed to possess.”

Each of these is a non-starter for Ukraine.