HSBC's Updated Research Model: OpenAI needs $200bn to continue losing money

HSBC’s updated research model, distributed to clients this week, follows OpenAI’s recent long-term cloud and compute agreements with Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle. Even under the bank’s upbeat growth assumptions, the model still leaves OpenAI with a funding gap of about $207 billion by the end of the decade, with revenues expected to reach $129 billion.

28 Nov, 2025 17:23

OpenAI needs $200bn to continue losing money – HSBC 

 

Surging computing costs could keep the maker of ChatGPT scrambling for fresh cash, a bank research report has estimated

 

OpenAI, the owner of ChatGPT, may need to raise more than $200 billion by 2030 in order to continue operating, according to HSBC research cited by several media outlets. 

The company needs the funding to continue expansion as computing costs climb amid an accelerating and increasingly frantic global AI race.

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2 days ago 
HSBC models OpenAI as an insanely capital-intensive “compute utility” that rents up to 36 GW of cloud power from Microsoft and Amazon, . . . 

 

HSBC reportedly estimated that OpenAI’s cloud rental bill could run to roughly $800 billion in total by 2030. 

• It is still projecting explosive user growth, saying ChatGPT could climb to 3 billion regular users by 2030, versus roughly 800 million last month – about 44% of adults worldwide outside China.

OpenAI has been at the center of the AI boom since ChatGPT launched three years ago, drawing huge investor interest as Big Tech pours tens of billions into data centers and advanced chips. Some analysts have warned the surge could be causing a bubble to form, with spending racing ahead of returns and raising the stakes not only for OpenAI but also for the tech giants backing its expansion.

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Tech companies are scrambling to keep pace with ChatGPT-style services that have challenged their grip on online search and pushed investment across the sector to record levels.

In October, OpenAI overtook Elon Musk’s SpaceX to become the world’s most valuable private company after a $6.6 billion employee share sale valued it at about $500 billion.