.Scientists have confirmed that solar material released during Tuesday's powerful X1.1-class flare is heading toward Earth. The blast, known as a coronal mass ejection, or CME, is expected to disturb our planet's magnetic field on July 3.
Forecasters say the impact could trigger G1 to G2 geomagnetic storm conditions. That means minor to moderate space weather activity, with a chance of auroras reaching farther south than usual if conditions line up.
The eruption came from active sunspot region AR4479, one of the most magnetically complex areas currently facing Earth. It has already produced an X-class flare, the strongest category of solar flare, along with several M-class eruptions.
The Sun has stayed highly active. Over a 24-hour period, it fired 13 flares, including eight M-class events. Another nearby region, AR4478, produced an M8.5 flare, just below X-class strength.
What happens next depends partly on the magnetic direction of the incoming solar material. If it connects strongly with Earth's magnetic field, auroras could become brighter and visible across a wider area. If the connection is weaker, the storm may stay more limited.
A late July 2 arrival cannot be ruled out, and lingering effects may continue into July 4. But July 3 is currently the main day to watch.
For aurora chasers, that means cameras ready. Parts of Canada, Alaska, northern Europe, and the northern U.S. may have the best chance of seeing the northern lights if skies are clear.
It could be a rare holiday-week display: solar fireworks above Earth before the fireworks begin on the ground.
Learn more:
"Sun news: Confirmed! X flare sun-stuff on its way to Earth." Earthsky
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