Saturday, April 01, 2023

TORNADIC SUPER CELLS:

 Supercell thunderstorms are perhaps the most violent of all thunderstorm types, and are capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and weak-to-violent tornadoes.

Structure and Dynamics of Supercell Thunderstorms

They are most common during the spring across the central United States when moderate-to-strong atmospheric wind fields, vertical wind shear (change in wind direction and/or speed with height), and instability are present. The degree and vertical distribution of moisture, instability, lift, and wind fields have a profound influence on convective storm type, including supercells, multicells (including squall lines and bow echoes), ordinary/pulse storms, or a combination of storm types. Once thunderstorms form, small/convective-scale interactions also influence storm type and evolution. There are variations of supercells, including "classic," "miniature," "high precipitation (HP)," and "low precipitation (LP)" storms. In general, however, the supercell class of storms is defined by a persistent rotating updraft (i.e., mesocyclone) which promotes storm organization, maintenance, and severity. 

The streamwise vorticity associated with this low-level process usually is NOT evident in the environment (i.e., identifiable in a sounding). It is generated through the storm's interaction with the environment. Thus, marginal ambient wind shear may still support supercells and even tornadoes given the presence of mesoscale/storm-scale interactions, which can greatly increase the local wind shear, helicity, and therefore mesocyclone strength and tornado potential. Once shear is enhanced and maintained locally in the hook/weak echo region, a series of mesocyclones and tornadoes are possible in the vorticity-rich local environment.


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Prepare for a Supercell

View the U.S. Severe Weather Map

A mesocyclone (or "meso" for short) is formed when a thunderstorm updraft meets veering winds. As the air rises in the thunderstorm, the winds will begin to twist the updraft until the whole column of air is rotating. Although each storm is different, the meso is usually found in the right rear flank of the supercell and is typically 2-6 miles wide. Technically, the mesocyclone is defined as the radar signature that appears if one is present (a yellow circle on Doppler velocity products), but you can often see the rotation with your bare eyes.

Supercell Explainer

While each storm is different, most supercells usually have the following parts:

  • Mesocyclone - Strong, rotating updraft
  • Forward-Flank Downdraft - Cold, dense air descending through the front of the storm
  • Rear-Flank Downdraft - Cold, dense air descending through the back of the storm
  • Flanking Line - A line of towering cumulonimbus connected to and extending outward from the rear of the supercell
  • Rain Shaft - The area in which rain and/or hail falls to the ground
  • Overshooting Top - The area of clouds that "punch through" the jet stream into the lower stratosphere (occurs when updraft is particularly strong)
  • Anvil - The flat layer of high cirrus clouds at the top of the storm that is shaped like an anvil, formed as the jet stream shears the updraft clouds away from the core of the storm

Types of Supercells

There are three types of supercells: low precipitation, classic and high precipitation. The definitions of these types are exactly what you would expect, but they have some different consequences.

Low Precipitation (LP) Supercells

LP supercells usually form in dry regions, where there might be just enough moisture to form the storm, but not enough moisture to rain very hard. You can usually find the updraft on the rear flank (back) of the storm, and the meso will be more defined and obvious. On radar, an LP will not show up as a hook echo because there's not enough precipitation within the storm to provide the reflectivity. These storms might not look that strong, but they can pack a punch. LP supercells often produce tornadoes and large hail.

Classic Supercells

The classic, textbook supercell looks much like the figure above. The storm will have a flat updraft base and potentially a wall cloud underneath the updraft. The precipitation (rain and hail) will fall adjacent to the updraft, usually underneath the forward flank downdraft (FFD). If the conditions are right, a tornado will form underneath the wall cloud.

High Precipitation (HP) Supercells

HP supercells usually have the updraft on the forward flank (front) of the storm, and the precip surrounds the updraft, from the FFD to the rear flank downdraft (RFD). The wall cloud and potential tornado will be "rain-wrapped" (within the "bear's cage") and difficult to observe. Rain and hail is extreme in these storms, and flash flooding usually occurs. It's possible that HP supercells are the most dangerous because of their ability to hide the warning signs of an approaching tornado.

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Friday, March 31, 2023

Reuters Run

 

  • Latest

    01 April 2023 Tass Reporting

     

    Young German mercenaries appear at Zaporozhye frontline, says regional official

    Vladimir Rogov also stated that that Polish speech is often heard during interceptions of radio talks at the Zaporozhye line of engagement

    MELITOPOL, April 1. /TASS/. German mercenaries were reported to appear along the Zaporozhye frontline, Vladimir Rogov, chairman of the We Are Together With Russia public movement, told TASS.

    "Germans appeared at the Zaporozhye frontline, they are young, literally 20-something years old," he said.

    Rogov also stated that that Polish speech is often heard during interceptions of radio talks at the Zaporozhye line of engagement.

    On March 27, he told TASS that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had assembled up to 75,000 people in the Zaporozhye Region following the attempted offensive on March 23 that was repelled by Russian forces, which eliminated up to 400 militants.

    Earlier, Rogov told TASS that Ukrainian forces are preparing an offensive on Melitopol in order to reach the Sea of Azov and sever the land corridor to Crimea from the supply routes for Russian forces and the population of the peninsula. According to the politician, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be ready for active operations in the Zaporozhye Region in late March or early April.

    Ukrainian Defense Minister Alexey Reznikov said in an interview with the Polish news outlet Gazeta Wyborcza that was published on March 29 that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were wrapping up preparations for several "counterstrikes," but would be unable to carry them out now partly due to weather conditions."

    tass.com

    Russian diplomat urges G7 countries to assess global damage they caused in past 25 years

    TASS
    2 minutes

    MOSCOW, February 28. /TASS/. Members of the Group of Seven (G7) need to assess the damage they caused to the world in the past 24 hours, Russian Foreing Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told the Rossiya-1 TV channel.

    When commenting on the G7’s statement that Russia would be responsible for any damage caused to Ukraine, Ukrainian nationals and international organizations, the diplomat pointed out that G7 countries should start with themselves. "It is high time the G7 assessed the damage that its members caused to the world in the past 20-25 years, and offset it with its own money rather than with someone else’s," Zakharova noted. These countries created damage "on several continents," she stressed.

    On February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a special military operation based on a request from the heads of the Donbass republics. The Russian leader stressed that Moscow had no plans to occupy Ukrainian territories and the goal was to demilitarize and denazify the country. Russia’s Defense Ministry reported later that the Russian Armed Forces were not delivering strikes against Ukrainian cities. The ministry emphasized that the Ukrainian military infrastructure was being destroyed by precision weapons and there was no threat to civilians.

    Russian forces wipe out two Ukrainian subversive groups in Kupyansk area

    The forces of the battlegroup West in the Kupyansk area used UAVs, Msta-S self-propelled howitzers as well as D-20 and D-30 howitzers to detect and then eliminate two subversive/reconnaissance groups, Western Battlegroup Spokesman Sergey Zybinsky said

    MOSCOW, April 1. /TASS/. Russian forces eliminated two Ukrainian subversive/reconnaissance groups in the Kupyansk area, Western Battlegroup Spokesman Sergey Zybinsky told TASS on Saturday.

    "The forces of the battlegroup West in the Kupyansk area used UAVs, Msta-S self-propelled howitzers as well as D-20 and D-30 howitzers to detect and then eliminate two subversive/reconnaissance groups," Zybinsky said.

    Russian center reports provocations by US troops in Syria’s Al-Hasakah province

    Rear Admiral Oleg Gurinov, Deputy Head of the Russian Center for the Reconciliation of Warring Parties in Syria, said that the Russian side had protested

    MOSCOW, March 31. /TASS/. Provocative actions by the US Armed Forces have been reported in the Syrian province of Al-Hasakah, the Russian side has voiced its protest against them, Rear Admiral Oleg Gurinov, deputy chief of the Russian Center for Reconciliation of the Opposing Parties in Syria, said on Friday.

    "Provocative actions by units of the US Armed Forces have been recorded in the Al-Hasakah Province. During joint Russian-Turkish patrols, the movement of two patrols conducted by the so-called anti-terrorist coalition were tracked along the non-deconfliction routes near Deiruna-Aga and Saramsak. The Russian side has protested to the coalition," Gurinov said.

    According to the top brass, the violation of the deconfliction agreements by the coalition jeopardizes the fragile balance of power, which has been achieved through Russia’s efforts, in the region, and also has a negative impact on the development of the situation.

    According to Gurinov, over the past 24 hours, four cases of shelling from the positions of Jabhat al-Nusra and Turkistan Islamic Party terrorist groups (both are banned in Russia) were recorded in the Idlib de-escalation zone. He added that a Syrian soldier had been wounded in sniper fire opened against government forces.

    Tags

    Aljazeera Report 04.01.2023

     

    Keep reading

    list of 4 items
    www.aljazeera.com

    Russia protests over ‘provocative actions’ by US forces in Syria

     
    Syrian and Russian soldiers in Damascus, Syria in 2018. Russia has protested over 'provocative actions' by US forces in northeastern Syria [File: Omar Sanadiki/Reuters]

    “The extension of the George HW Bush Carrier Strike Group, inclusive of the USS Leyte Gulf, the USS Delbert D. Black, and the USNS Arctic, allows options to potentially bolster the capabilities of CENTCOM to respond to a range of contingencies in the Middle East,” US Central Command (CENTCOM) spokesperson Colonel Joe Buccino said in a statement.

    News of the extended deployment first emerged a day after the Pentagon doubled its number of US troops wounded in the drone attack in Syria to 12.

    The Pentagon estimated that eight people were killed during the retaliatory US air attacks against targets it claimed had links to Iran.

    Both the Iranian and Syrian foreign ministries slammed the US air attacks that Washington said had targeted the strategic region of Deir ez-Zor bordering Iraq.

    In a statement last week, Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanani said the US “terrorist” attacks hit civilian targets and constituted a violation of international law and Syrian sovereignty.

    “The US claims that it is present in Syria to fight Daesh [ISIL] that itself had a major role in creating is just an excuse to continue its occupation and loot Syria’s national wealth, including its energy resources and wheat,” he said.

    Kanani also said Iran only has military advisers on the ground in Syria at the request of its government.

    The Syrian foreign ministry criticised the “brutal” US attacks that it said killed several people and amounted to a violation of its territorial integrity and promised to “end the American occupation”.

    The White House has said the attacks on its forces would not force a pullback of the US from Syria.

    Al Jazeera
    5 - 6 minutes

    Russian rear Admiral Oleg Gurinov said the protest was made to the US-led coalition in Syria over actions by US troops.

    Russian forces in Syria have protested over what Moscow described as “provocative actions” by United States forces also deployed in the country, Russia’s state news agency TASS has reported.

    TASS cited a senior Russian military official on Friday saying that “provocative” incidents had occurred in Syria’s northeastern province of Hassakeh where US forces have been deployed for several years, leading a coalition of local Kurdish troops battling against ISIL (ISIS) and its remnants.

    “Provocative actions on the part of US armed forces units have been noted in Hassakeh province … the Russian side lodged a protest with the coalition,” Russian Rear Admiral Oleg Gurinov, head of the Russian Centre for Reconciliation of the Opposing Parties in Syria, told TASS.

    Gurnivo said US troops had twice been spotted by Russian forces in areas that lay outside their agreed zones of operation, without giving details of timing.

    “During joint Russian-Turkish patrols, the movement of two patrols conducted by the so-called anti-terrorist coalition were tracked along the non-deconfliction routes near Deiruna-Aga and Saramsak. The Russian side has protested to the coalition,” Gurinov said, according to TASS.

    Russia – which together with Turkey is carrying out joint patrols in northern Syria – has agreed on special zones where the US-led coalition can operate as it takes on hundreds of ISIL fighters camped in desolate areas of Syria where neither the coalition nor the Syrian army exerts full control.

    The US-led coalition has been engaged in Syria for almost eight years while Russia intervened in the Syrian Civil War in 2015, tipping the balance in President Bashar Al-Assad’s favour. Moscow has since expanded its military facilities in Syria with a permanent air and naval base.

    Russian soldiers, on armoured vehicles, patrol a street in Aleppo, Syria February 2, 2017. REUTERS/Ali Hashisho
    Russian soldiers, on armoured vehicles, patrol a street in Aleppo, Syria in 2017 [File: Ali Hashisho/Reuters]

    Last week, the US carried out multiple air attacks in Syria against what it said were Iran-aligned armed groups, which the Pentagon blamed for a previous drone attack. US officials said the attack by the armed group killed a US military contractor, injured another, and wounded about a dozen US soldiers at a coalition base in the northeast of the country near Hassakeh city.

    Pro-Iranian forces in Syria warned in an online statement signed by the Iranian Advisory Committee in Syria that they would respond to the US air strikes on their positions.

    US military officials announced on Friday that the deployment of the George H W Bush carrier strike group would be extended after the drone by the Iranian-backed groups.

    The decision likely means that the US strike group and its more than 5,000 US personnel, which are currently in the European Command operational area, will not be returning to the home port as scheduled. . .

    “The extension of the George HW Bush Carrier Strike Group, inclusive of the USS Leyte Gulf, the USS Delbert D. Black, and the USNS Arctic, allows options to potentially bolster the capabilities of CENTCOM to respond to a range of contingencies in the Middle East,” US Central Command (CENTCOM) spokesperson Colonel Joe Buccino said in a statement.

    News of the extended deployment first emerged a day after the Pentagon doubled its number of US troops wounded in the drone attack in Syria to 12.

    The Pentagon estimated that eight people were killed during the retaliatory US air attacks against targets it claimed had links to Iran.

    Both the Iranian and Syrian foreign ministries slammed the US air attacks that Washington said had targeted the strategic region of Deir ez-Zor bordering Iraq.

    In a statement last week, Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanani said the US “terrorist” attacks hit civilian targets and constituted a violation of international law and Syrian sovereignty.

    “The US claims that it is present in Syria to fight Daesh [ISIL] that itself had a major role in creating is just an excuse to continue its occupation and loot Syria’s national wealth, including its energy resources and wheat,” he said.

    Kanani also said Iran only has military advisers on the ground in Syria at the request of its government.

    The Syrian foreign ministry criticised the “brutal” US attacks that it said killed several people and amounted to a violation of its territorial integrity and promised to “end the American occupation”.

    The White House has said the attacks on its forces would not force a pullback of the US from Syria." 

    READ  MORE 

    www.nbcnews.com

    Russian jets have flown over U.S. base in Syria nearly every day in March

    By Courtney Kube
    5 - 6 minutes

    Lt. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich told NBC News that Russian jets have violated the airspace of At Tanf Garrison roughly 25 times this month, including Wednesday.

    Armed Russian jets have flown over a U.S. military garrison in Syria nearly every day in March, violating a 4-year-old agreement between the U.S. and Russia and risking escalation, according to the U.S. general in charge of air operations in the region.

    Lt. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, combined forces air component commander for U.S. Central Command, told NBC News on Wednesday that the most recent Russian overflight of At Tanf Garrison (ATG) happened just a few hours earlier, and that Russian jets have violated the airspace roughly 25 times so far this month, compared to zero times in February and 14 in January.

    “It is a substantial increase,” he said, explaining that at this rate they are “on track to be double what it has been in the past.” 

    “They’re regularly flying directly overhead of our units, and I’ve defined directly overhead, as within about a mile, no more than a mile offset one side or the other, while we’ve got forces right there on the ground at ATG,” said Grynkewich. “So it’s an uncomfortable situation.”

    The Russian aircraft include Su-34 jets. Some aircraft carry air-to-air weapons and others carrying air-to-ground munitions; weapons include radar-guided and heat-seeking missiles and bombs. 

    This disclosure comes in the wake of an incident over the Black Sea last week in which two Russian Su-27 fighter jets flew aggressively around a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone, dumping fuel on the drone and eventually colliding with it, forcing the U.S. to down the drone in the water.

    Syria Headlines

    U.S. extends carrier deployment after Syria attack

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The United States has decided to extend the deployment of the George H.W. Bush carrier strike group to provide options to policymakers after last week's deadly attacks in Syria by Iran-backed forces, U.S. military officials said on Friday.

    Israeli attack kills Iranian Guards officer in Syria, Iran says

    DAMASCUS/DUBAI (Reuters) -An Israeli attack in Syria on Friday killed an officer in Iran's Revolutionary Guards, the Guards said, as the second strike near Damascus in two days pointed to intensifying Israeli efforts to counter Tehran's foothold in the country.


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