The Energy Department's data arm is more favorable on renewables' long-term future than it was a year ago, but its central analysis might still be badly underestimating the tech's trajectory.
Driving the news: The Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook released yesterday shows power from renewables overtaking natural gas as the nation's largest electricity source in about 15 years.
Why it matters: It's a reversal of fortune from last year's version, which projected that in 2050 natural gas would still be the biggest power source with a 39% share and renewables at 31%.
“This shift has been strongly influenced by federal and state policies that help make renewables the fastest-growing source of electricity,” EIA administrator Linda Capuano said Wednesday, per Bloomberg.
The intrigue: One thing worth keeping in mind is that EIA's "reference" case assumes a static policy landscape going forward.
Predicting the future is hard! But it's safe to assume policy won't be static.
EIA also published alternative scenarios — a high-cost case and a low-cost case in which renewable costs in 2050 are 40% lower than the reference case.
In the low-cost case, renewables have a 50% share in 2050.
But, but, but: Renewables' growth has outpaced EIA projections for many years.
"I do think that the [EIA] numbers are moving in the right direction, but still too conservative," Joshua Rhodes, an analyst with the firm Vibrant Clean Energy, tells me.
He points to the recent burst of long-term state and utility clean power plans, and he's skeptical that coal will even have close to the 13% share by 2050 that EIA projects.
The latest edition of the Energy Department's "transportation fact of the week" series shows that much of the freight moved by truck isn't traveling that far.
Why it matters: As medium and heavy-duty electric trucks enter the market, which is slowlystarting to happen, there are many use cases that don't require massive range or far-flung charging networks.
What they're saying:"Electric trucks can meet the need of a lot of freight applications today and will be ready to meet the needs of even more applications as range grows in the coming years," Jason Mathers, the Environmental Defense Fund's director for vehicles and freight strategy, tells me.
