14 August 2022

OK...So Who's Having A Lovely Weekend??


Here's wishing you well; enjoy it while you can. For those of us who like a reality check every now and then here ya go. . .


Good morning. Wishing you all a lovely weekend




These three @wsj charts highlight some key issues regarding US #inflation such as:

Headline vs core (i.e., lower energy vs more broad-based drivers of higher prices); and

Going forward, the greater influence of shelter and #wages.

Mohamed on Twitter (@elerianm)



Preliminary Results for August 2022

Aug Jul Aug M-M Y-Y

2022 2022 2021 Change Change
Index of Consumer Sentiment 55.1 51.5 70.3 +7.0% -21.6%
Current Economic Conditions 55.5 58.1 78.5 -4.5% -29.3%
Index of Consumer Expectations 54.9 47.3 65.1 +16.1% -15.7%
Featured Chart (PDF)
Next data release: Friday, August 26, 2022 for Final August data at 10am ET
Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu
Consumer sentiment moved up very slightly this month to about 5 index points above the all-time low reached in June. All components of the expectations index improved this month, particularly among low and middle income consumers for whom inflation is particularly salient. The year-ahead economic outlook rose substantially to just above its average reading from the second quarter 2022, while the two other expectations index components remain at or below their second quarter averages. At the same time, high income consumers, who generate a disproportionate share of spending, registered large declines in both their current personal finances as well as buying conditions for durables. With continued declines in energy prices, the median expected year-ahead inflation rate fell to 5.0%, its lowest reading since February but still well above the 4.6% reading from a year ago. At 3.0%, median long run inflation expectations remained within the 2.9-3.1% range seen over the past year. Uncertainty over long run inflation receded a bit, with the interquartile range in expectations falling from 4.7 last month to 3.8 this month, remaining above the 3.3 range seen last August. Still, the share of consumers blaming inflation for eroding their living standards remained near 48%.


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