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Investors are losing hope for a Fed pause and bracing for another interest-rate hike instead. Here's what 8 experts have predicted.
- Investors are losing hope that the Federal Reserve will pause its interest-rate hikes in June.
- They're worried stubborn inflation will spur the Fed to press on ahead with further increases.
- Here's what eight market experts have forecasted about the US central bank's next move.Investors are losing hope that the Federal Reserve will halt its campaign of interest-rate hikes, and bracing for the US central bank to raise rates once again.
For months, lawmakers have been urging the Fed to ease up on its aggressive monetary policy, especially after Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic ran into trouble during the recent banking turmoil.
The banking problems have sparked concerns that further rate hikes could turn the screws on the US economy. For example, several market experts have warned the commercial real estate industry is at risk if the Fed keeps raising borrowing costs.
However, investors are growing more and more convinced that the Fed will power ahead with more rate hikes, as fears of stubborn inflation take hold. At the time of writing, odds in the Fed funds futures market were 63% that the nation's central bank would hike benchmark rates by 25 basis points at its June meeting.
The Fed has already hiked rates from almost zero to upwards of 5% over the past year to cool inflation to its 2% target. The bank's efforts appear to be paying off, given the rate of price pressures has slowed from above 9% last summer to 4.9% in April. Yet there may be more work to be done.
Here's what eight top experts have forecasted for the Fed's next move.
Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz advisor
"I think the Fed is going to have to decide between two policy mistakes: hit the brakes too hard and risk a recession or tap the brakes in a stop-go pattern … and risk having inflation well into 2023," the top economist and former PIMCO chief said.
David Solomon, Goldman Sachs CEO
"There's no question that inflation has come off," Solomon said during CNBC's CEO Council Panel.
"I sense that it's going to be stickier. It's come off its peak, but it's going to be stickier and more resilient which is why we're expecting that while the Fed may pause and will be data dependent, you might need to see higher rates to ultimately control it some more," he added.
Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan CEO
"My simple view is that they're right to pause at this point," Dimon said, noting that he doesn't think this will be the case.
"But I do think it's possible they're going to raise a little more. Inflation is kind of stickier, I think people are coming around to that, which means rates may have to go up a little more. People should be a little prepared for that," he added.
Ed Yardeni, market veteran
"The market has been remarkably resilient, mostly because the economy has been remarkably resilient," Yardeni said in a CNBC interview.
"They didn't want to keep raising interest rates until something really seriously breaks, and then be forced to lower interest rates," he added, referring to the Fed. "So I think they're where they want to be – and I think they're going to keep it here."
Nouriel Roubini, "Dr. Doom" economist
"In equity markets, I think people think that central banks are done with raising rates and therefore they're going to cut rates to zero," Roubini told Bloomberg, referring to global central banks.
"There's still a lot of inflation around the world," the economist and NYU Stern professor said.
"The big surprise this year is going to be [that] inflation is not going to fall as much as central banks expect. Therefore, the central banks will have to make a tough choice of either raising rates [which brings] more of the risk of a hard landing and financial instability or not raising rates, but then you're going to have the anchoring of inflation and inflation expectations."
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics
"They should be done. The key here is inflation, and in my view, inflation is coming in," Mark Zandi said in a CNBC interview.
"I feel very confident that inflation is going to be closer to 3% by the end of the year, and close to the Fed's target by this time next year," he added. That's because the cost of housing services is expected to come down, while vehicle prices have declined, Zandi continued.
Pantheon Macroeconomics
"Our beef with the Fed's hawks is that we are firmly of the view that they have already done enough, and that raising rates further — actually, not cutting rates very soon — will amount to overkill," strategists wrote in a note.
They added that policymakers pushing for further rate hikes are "playing with fire."
Mark Nash, Jupiter Asset Management strategist
"It's very clear that we need higher real rates in order to get inflation down, and the Fed will not stop until that happens," Nash said. "Policy is still not tight enough."
"The Fed has to cause some damage to the economy," he continued. "If they don't cause some damage, and inflation comes down a bit, real incomes will just go back up and consumers will feel better as the cost-of-living crisis ends," Nash said.
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