Friday, August 11, 2023

TACTICAL OPTIMISM / The Fed is done hiking rates – and could even cut early next year

Investors have cast doubt on the Fed's policy so far this year, worrying that any further rate hikes could tip the US economy into recession.
With the next policy meeting coming up in over a month's time, a majority of traders are bracing for another pause in interest rate hikes, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

The Fed is done hiking rates – and could even cut early next year, Fundstrat's Tom Lee and Mohamed El-Erian say

Zahra Tayeb
Aug 11, 2023, 1:31 AM PDT

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Market Preview: 08/08/2023 - Will US inflation convince investors that more Fed hikes are needed?

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Even after the US employment report revealed higher-than-expected wage growth for July, investors continued to believe that the Fed has already concluded its own tightening crusade. Will this week’s ...

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Perspectives

Year/year % change in CPI core services ex-housing (“supercore”) reversed higher in July … hovering in ~4% range still likely too hot for Fed

48 mins ago

Schuldensuehner

Twitter

US #inflation a tad lower than what economists expected: US July CPI accelerates to 3.2% YoY from 3% in June vs 3.3% expected, BUT the first acceleration after 12 consecutive months of decline. Core CPI slows to 4.7% YoY from 4.8% in June as expected. Shelter costs contributed to…

1 day ago

elerianm

Twitter

US #inflation came in as expected with monthly gains of 0.2% for both headline and core CPI. The annual rates are now 3.2% and 4.7%, respectively. These numbers will come as a relief to those who worried that the July data would already reflect price pass-throughs from higher…

1 day ago

NickTimiraos

Twitter

The summer of disinflation continues. The consumer price index rose 0.17% in July from June, or 3.18% from a year ago. The CPI was up 1.9% over the three months thru July at an annualized rate and up 2.6% over the last six months at an annualized rate.

1 day ago

jasonfurman

Twitter

The CPI-based Ecumenical Underlying Inflation measure for July is 2.5%, down from 2.8% last month. This measure has been plunging over the last several months.

19 hours ago

byHeatherLong

Twitter

JUST IN: Inflation rose 3.2% y/y in July, a small uptick from 3% in June that was widely expected. Shelter/rent accounted for 90% of the increase. The good news is inflation rose a modest 0.2% for the month of July alone. That’s an encouraging sign inflation is moderating.

1 day ago

Markzandi

Twitter

The July CPI report was great. It stuck mostly to script, and if anything, was on the soft side of expectations as the monthly increase in overall and core CPI came in shy of 0.2% when looking at the change to the 2nd significant digit. Yup, this is what it has come to.

23 hours ago