15 August 2023

Ukraine Situation Report: Spring Counteroffensive May Be Needed...

“Kyiv’s goal now is for its current offensive to culminate with sufficient gains to show Ukrainian citizens and backers in Washington, Berlin and elsewhere that their support hasn’t been misplaced—and should continue,” the Journal reported. 
  • “U.S. and other Western officials have hoped that a significant Ukrainian breakthrough could bruise Russian forces enough to bring President Vladimir Putin to a negotiating table as soon as this winter for serious talks about some kind of settlement. 
  • Chances of that happening now appear slim, diplomats say.“ 
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. . .Douglas R. Bush, assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, logistics and technology, said last week that the U.S. is currently producing new artillery rounds at a rate of 24,000 per month and is on track to produce in excess of 80,000 rounds per month over the following year.

An aerial view of the Pentagon with the Washington Monument in the background.

He said the DOD remains committed to arming Ukraine as the country defends itself against Russia's unprovoked invasion while at the same time maintaining U.S. military readiness. 
  • "The U.S. Army is committed to and will succeed at maintaining our stocks sufficient for training and readiness of the U.S. Army, while also supporting our ally, Ukraine, with what they need, working as part of an international team to make sure that happens," Bush said. 
He added that, throughout the war, U.S. equipment has remained highly effective in combat. 

"That's the result of decades of work by thousands of people to make sure our equipment is tested well and also that our industry partners produce it, critically, at a high level of quality," Bush said.

  •  "Lots of countries can produce. The United States produces the best in terms of quality. I think we are seeing that, and I think that speaks well of our industry partners."

--- Pentagon Announces $200M in Security Assistance for Ukraine

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The Pentagon on Monday announced the first round of aid packages to Ukraine using $6.2 billion in additional funds found through an accounting review earlier this year. 
The package, valued at up to $200 billion, includes mine-clearing equipment and additional munitions for the Patriot air defense system, and more Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) munitions for the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS.

In addition, package includes the following capabilities:

  • 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds; 
  • 120mm tank ammunition; 
  • Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles; 
  • Javelin and other anti-armor systems and rockets; 
  • 37 tactical vehicles to tow and haul equipment; 
  • 58 water trailers; 
  • Over 12 million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades;  
  • Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing; and 
  • Spare parts, maintenance, and other field equipment. 
This is the 44th Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package for Ukraine. That's funding to pay for items currently in U.S. military stock. 
  • To date, the Biden administration has committed more than $43 billion in security assistance since Russia launched its full-on invasion, 
  • and more than $46.1 billion in security assistance since Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014.

A Ukrainian commander shows Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) rockets on a M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) vehicle in Eastern Ukraine on July 1, 2022.  (Photo by Anastasia Vlasova for The Washington Post via Getty Images)
A Ukrainian commander shows Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) rockets on a M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) vehicle in Eastern Ukraine on July 1, 2022. (Photo by Anastasia Vlasova for The Washington Post via Getty Images)

  • Norwegian arms maker Kongsberg Aerospace and Defense has been awarded a contract worth nearly $71 million to deliver a new mobile short-range anti-drone system to Ukraine, the Norwegian Defense Ministry announced Monday.
  • The CORTEX Typhon Counter-UAS system is built on Dingo mine-resistant, ambush-protected (MRAP) armor transport vehicles and will include software and hardware from Teledyne Flir and Kongsberg, a Kongsberg Remote Weapon Station (RWS) and the CORTEX Integrated Combat Solution (ICS).

“The delivery of the anti-drone system is financed through the British-led International Fund for Ukraine (IFU) where Norway is a major contributor,” the Norwegian MoD said in its release. 
  • The Norwegian government has donated two Dingo MRAPs, the Kongsberg RWS and weapons, it added.

It is unclear how many of the systems will be delivered. Kongsberg declined to provide additional details on how many or when they might be delivered. Ukraine remains in major need of drone and short-range air defenses, especially highly mobile types that can work along the front lines. . .

Ukraine Situation Report: Spring Counteroffensive May Be Needed

With the current counteroffensive moving slowly, some Western officials say the timeline for success may shift to next year.

BYHOWARD ALTMAN|
Ukraine's fight may drag on until next year, some officials say.
(Photo by Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

"Given the slow pace of Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive, some Western military strategists and policymakers are beginning consider a spring offensive in 2024, The Wall Street Journal reported.

“The shift reflects a deepening appreciation that, barring a major breakthrough, Ukraine’s fight to eject Russia’s invasion forces is likely to take a long time,” the Journal reported.  
  • Ukraine has been making incremental gains, especially in towns along the Mokri Yaly River in Donetsk Oblast.

"In the direction of Urozhayne, further south and southeast of Staromayorske of the Donetsk region, [Ukrainian troops] were successful, they are taking hold of the achieved boundaries," Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said on her Telegram channel Monday.

The Ukraine Defense Ministry said its forces have made progress in the advance toward Urozhayne in Donetsk Oblast. (Google Earth image)
The Ukraine Defense Ministry said its forces have made progress in the advance toward Urozhayne in Donetsk Oblast. (Google Earth image)

That advance is less than a mile from Staromayorsk, which was liberated about nearly three weeks ago.

The advances have come at a tremendous cost in personnel and equipment and any hopes from the White House that Ukraine will soon regain the territory Russia still holds in the Donbas, Zaporizhzhia and all of Crimea may be waning.

“I do think there’s a realization in the administration that Ukraine’s not going to be regaining all its territory any time soon,” Ivo Daalder, President Barack Obama’s former ambassador to NATO, told the publication.

“Kyiv’s goal now is for its current offensive to culminate with sufficient gains to show Ukrainian citizens and backers in Washington, Berlin and elsewhere that their support hasn’t been misplaced—and should continue,” the Journal reported. 
  • “U.S. and other Western officials have hoped that a significant Ukrainian breakthrough could bruise Russian forces enough to bring President Vladimir Putin to a negotiating table as soon as this winter for serious talks about some kind of settlement. 
  • Chances of that happening now appear slim, diplomats say.“
Ukrainian soldiers fire with D-30 artillery at Russian positions in the direction of Klishchiivka as the Russia-Ukraine war continues in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on August 13, 2023. (Photo by Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
Ukrainian soldiers fire with D-30 artillery at Russian positions in the direction of Klishchiivka as the Russia-Ukraine war continues in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on August 13, 2023. (Photo by Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

The Biden administration continues to insist that it will back Ukraine for the long haul.

"We will continue to support Ukraine for as long as it takes," Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon's top spokesman, told reporters Aug. 10.
  • However, with the U.S. presidential election slated for November, 2024, there are increasing concerns about just how long support for Ukraine will last. Donald Trump, who has suggested he plans to curtail aid to Ukraine, is the Republican front-runner.

Still, many in the GOP still back aid for Ukraine, the Journal noted. 

"In votes last month on defense appropriations, five amendments proposed by House Republicans close to Trump that would have cut aid to Ukraine were defeated by wide margins after more than 130 Republicans voted alongside all Democrats in rejecting them." 

“I think that bodes extremely well for support,” said Daalder, the former NATO ambassador. 

What this support looks like come next spring remains to be seen. We will continue to closely watch this situation and provide updates when warranted.

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Drawn directly from US inventories, the new weapons mark the 44th round of assistance since the conflict with Russia broke out last year, carrying a price tag of some $43 billion, not counting separate aid under the Pentagon’s Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative.
Moscow has repeatedly denounced foreign arms transfers to Kiev, arguing the weapons will only prolong the bloodshed and increase the risk of triggering a wider conflict.
15 Aug, 2023 03:47

Pentagon unveils another arms package for Ukraine

The latest transfer marks the 44th round of US military aid to Kiev since February 2022
Pentagon unveils another arms package for Ukraine











"The Pentagon has announced a $200 million weapons package for Ukraine, including artillery rounds, dozens of tactical vehicles and mine-clearing gear, as Ukrainian troops struggle to penetrate heavy Russian fortifications in their ongoing offensive.
  • Military officials outlined the new aid on Monday night, saying Kiev would also receive “critical” ammunition for the US-made Patriot air defense and HIMARS rocket artillery systems, 120mm tank shells, TOW missiles, Javelin rockets and 12 million rounds of small arms ammunition, among other equipment. 
Officials noted that $6.2 billion of the total would come from funds “recaptured” following a Pentagon accounting error earlier this year, in which the military over-estimated the value of certain weapons
  • At the time, the Pentagon said the newly found resources would “go back into the pot of money” and finance future aid packages.

The latest military assistance comes as Ukrainian forces scramble to punch through powerful Russian defenses erected across a 600-mile (1,000km) front line, part of a foundering counteroffensive launched in June. On Sunday, Kiev’s Defense Minister Aleksey Reznikov said troops were being slowed by large Russian mine fields, calling them a “serious obstacle” to the operation.

He went on to urge Kiev’s Western patrons to “expand and expedite” training for sappers and transfers of mine-clearing equipment, saying Ukraine’s current resources were “extremely insufficient” at the front.
Following a meeting of 54 nations that support Ukraine held last July, several European NATO members agreed to help train and equip new engineering teams. 
  • However, at the time Reznikov said more assistance would inevitably be needed, with some Ukrainian commanders describing Western sapper gear as “ineffective.”
Drawn directly from US inventories, the new weapons mark the 44th round of assistance since the conflict with Russia broke out last year, carrying a price tag of some $43 billion, not counting separate aid under the Pentagon’s Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative..."

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The Pentagon has announced a new security assistance package for Ukraine worth approximately $200 million. The latest arms package, the 44th such tranche, ...
CNBC · Amanda Macias · 18 hours ago
The Pentagon's recent support package to Ukraine includes drone boats, manned patrol boats and coastal defense weapons, harpoons and anti-ship missiles.
Warrior Maven · Kris Osborn, Warrior Maven - Center for Military Modernization · 9 hours ago
Small drones have proven extremely critical for Ukraine's war effort against a numerically larger Russian conventional force, one reason why the Pentagon's ...
Warrior Maven · Kris Osborn, Warrior Maven - Center for Military Modernization · 10 hours ago
US Unveils another Arms Package for Ukraine - Islam Times
IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine

Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine's critical security and defense needs. This announcement is the Biden Administration's forty-fourth tranche of equipment to be provided from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. It includes additional air defense munitions, artillery and tank ammunition, anti-armor weapons, and other equipment to help Ukraine counter Russia's ongoing war of aggression.

The capabilities in this package, valued at up to $200 million, include:

  1. Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems;
  2. Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
  3. Mine clearing equipment and systems;
  4. 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
  5. 120mm tank ammunition;
  6. Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
  7. Javelin and other anti-armor systems and rockets;
  8. 37 tactical vehicles to tow and haul equipment;
  9. 58 water trailers;
  10. Over 12 million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades;
  11. Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing; and
  12. Spare parts, maintenance, and other field equipment.

This security assistance package will utilize assistance previously authorized under Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) for Ukraine that remained after the PDA revaluation process concluded in June.

The United States will continue to work with its Allies and partners to provide Ukraine with capabilities to meet its immediate battlefield needs and longer-term security assistance requirements.

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