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Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate),
Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate),
Second Quarter 2023 and Comprehensive Update
- In the second estimate, the increase in GDP was also 2.1 percent.
- The update primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending that was partly offset by upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and inventory investment.
- Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down (refer to “Updates to GDP”).
Current dollar GDP increased 3.8 percent at an annual rate, or $249.4 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $27.06 trillion, a downward revision in change of $19.4 billion (tables 1 and 3). More information on the source data that underlie the estimates is available in the "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file.
Personal Income
Current-dollar personal income increased $239.6 billion in the second quarter, an upward revision of $7.4 billion from the previous estimate. The increase in the second quarter primarily reflected increases in compensation (led by private wages and salaries), personal income receipts on assets (both personal dividend income and personal interest income), and personal current transfer receipts (led by government social benefits), and rental income of persons (table 8).
Disposable personal income increased $296.5 billion, or 6.1 percent, in the second quarter, an upward revision of $12.1 billion from the previous estimate.
Real disposable personal income increased 3.5 percent, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage point.
Personal saving was $1.04 trillion in the second quarter, an upward revision in change of $40.5 billion from the previous estimate. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 5.2 percent, an upward revision of 0.7 percentage point.
Gross Domestic Income and Corporate Profits
Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 0.7 percent in the second quarter, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage point from the previous estimate. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 1.4 percent in the second quarter, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point (table 1).
Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $6.9 billion in the second quarter, an upward revision of $17.5 billion from the previous estimate (table 10).
Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $54.2 billion in the second quarter, a downward revision of $6.3 billion from the previous estimate.
Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $39.0 billion, an upward revision of $21.9 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $22.1 billion, an upward revision of $1.9 billion. In the second quarter, receipts increased $25.8 billion, and payments increased $3.7 billion.
Updates to GDP
With the third estimate, downward revisions to consumer spending and federal government spending were partly offset by upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, private inventory investment, and residential fixed investment. For more information, refer to the Technical Note. For information on updates to GDP, refer to the "Additional Information" section that follows.
| Advance Estimate | Second Estimate | Third Estimate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| (Percent change from preceding quarter) | |||
| Real GDP | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Current-dollar GDP | 4.7 | 4.1 | 3.8 |
| Real GDI | … | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Average of Real GDP and Real GDI | … | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Gross domestic purchases price index | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| PCE price index | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| PCE price index excluding food and energy | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
Comprehensive Update of the National Economic Accounts
The reference year for chain-type quantity and price indexes and for the chain-dollar estimates is updated to 2017 from 2012. More information on the 2023 Comprehensive Update is found in the "Preview of the 2023 Comprehensive Update of the National Economic Accounts" in the Survey of Current Business.
With today's release, most data are available through BEA’s Interactive Data application on the BEA website (www.bea.gov). Refer to “Information on Updates to the National Economic Accounts” for the complete table release schedule and a summary of results through 2022, which includes information on methodology changes.
- A table showing the major current dollar revisions and their sources for each component of GDP, national income, and personal income is also provided.
- An article describing the update in more detail will be forthcoming in the Survey of Current Business.
Additional GDP by industry statistics will be released this fall. BEA will send an advisory with the exact date and time when available.
The updated estimates show that real GDP increased at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent from 2017 to 2022, 0.1 percentage point higher than the previously published estimate. Over the same period, real GDI increased at an average annual rate of 2.3 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than previously published. The average of real GDP and real GDI over the same period was 2.2 percent, 0.1 percentage point higher than previously published.
- For the period of economic contraction from the fourth quarter of 2019 through the second quarter of 2020, real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 17.5 percent, revised up 0.7 percentage point from the previously published estimates.
- For the period of economic expansion from the second quarter of 2020 through the first quarter of 2023, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 5.6 percent, 0.2 percentage point lower than previously estimated.
Previously published estimates, which are superseded by today's release, are found in BEA’s archives.
Updates for the First Quarter of 2023
For the first quarter of 2023, real GDP is now estimated to have increased 2.2 percent (table 1), an upward revision of 0.2 percentage point from the previously published estimate. An upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment was partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending.
The price index for gross domestic purchases is now estimated to have increased 3.6 percent, a downward revision of 0.2 percentage point. The PCE price index increased 4.2 percent, 0.1 percentage point higher than previously published. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 5.0 percent, 0.1 percentage point higher than previously published.
| First Quarter 2023 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Previous Estimate | Revised | |
| (Percent change from preceding quarter) | ||
| Real GDP | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| Current-dollar GDP | 6.1 | 6.3 |
| Real GDI | -1.8 | 0.5 |
| Average of Real GDP and Real GDI | 0.1 | 1.4 |
| Gross domestic purchases price index | 3.8 | 3.6 |
| PCE price index | 4.1 | 4.2 |
| PCE price index excluding food and energy | 4.9 | 5.0 |
Personal Income
Current-dollar personal income is now estimated to have increased $369.8 billion in the first quarter, an upward revision of $91.9 billion from the previous estimate. The revision primarily reflected an upward revision to compensation (led by private wages and salaries) (table 8).
Disposable personal income increased $701.8 billion, or 15.5 percent, in the first quarter, an upward revision of $113.9 billion from the previous estimate. Real disposable personal income increased 10.8 percent, an upward revision of 2.3 percentage points.
Personal saving was $948.2 billion in the first quarter, an upward revision in change of $132.9 billion. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.8 percent in the first quarter, an upward revision of 0.5 percentage point.
Gross Domestic Income and Corporate Profits
Real GDI is now estimated to have increased 0.5 percent in the first quarter (table 1); in the previously published estimates, first-quarter GDI was estimated to have decreased 1.8 percent. The leading contributor to the upward revision was compensation, based primarily on new first-quarter wage and salary estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. The average of real GDP and real GDI is now estimated to have increased 1.4 percent in the first quarter; in the previously published estimates, the average of GDP and GDI was estimated to have increased 0.1 percent.
Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) is now estimated to have decreased $83.3 billion in the first quarter, an upward revison of $38.2 billion (table 10).
Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $17.3 billion, an upward revision of $26.7 billion. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $92.7 billion, an upward revision of $10.2 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits decreased $7.9 billion, an upward revision of $1.3 billion. In the first quarter, receipts are now estimated to have increased $13.1 billion, and payments are now estimated to have increased $21.1 billion.
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Next release, October 26, 2023, at 8:30 a.m. EDT
Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate)__
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