06 April 2024

With no way out of a worsening war, Zelensky’s options look bad or worse. . . "🇺🇦 Zelensky's chances ranked from "bad to even worse" — The Washington Post Zelensky will also have to live up to his own promise

Zelensky will also have to live up to his own promise — which he restates regularly — of returning Ukraine to its 1991 borders, including Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula that Russia illegally invaded and claimed as its own 10 years ago.

“Smart people know that’s not realistic,” the Ukrainian lawmaker said, adding: The political leadership “needed to adjust this rhetoric at some point.”

The Washington Post

21 hours ago

With no way out of a worsening war, Zelensky's options look bad or worse - The Washington Post

X.com

12 hours ago

Zlatti71 on X: "🇺🇦 Zelensky's chances ranked from "bad to even worse" — The Washington Post Zelensky will also have to live up to his own promise — which he restates regularly —

The Washington Post

11 hours ago

With no way out of a worsening war, Zelensky's options look bad or worse - The Washington Post

Pessimism about Ukraine’s battlefield chances has increased in recent months as Russian forces have regained the initiative on the battlefield, largely because Ukrainians are short on troops and ammunition.

Ukraine is reliant on its Western partners for weapons, but a $60 billion security package from the United States has been stalled in Congress for six months.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s government is struggling to address its personnel shortages as measures to mobilize more soldiers have divided society.

Kyiv is now bracing for the possibility that aid from the United States could be cut off. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said recently that the package could be put to a vote next week but it is expected to face revisions, such as perhaps providing the money as a loan, which would add to Ukraine’s already huge debt.

Even if the aid is approved soon, the delay has sent a clear signal that future assistance is not guaranteed, especially with the U.S. presidential election this year.
Officials also worry that Europe lacks the production capacity to compensate for a U.S. shortfall, especially in artillery and air-defense ammunition — Ukraine’s biggest needs.

Zelensky has said Ukraine is prioritizing domestic production but so far makes only a small fraction of its needs. Russian forces are now firing six times as much as the Ukrainians along the front line.. .

Ukrainians have resigned themselves to a long war. Some have been fighting since 2014, when Russia first stoked conflict in eastern Ukraine.

“Ukraine does not have the power to make another offensive,” said one Western ambassador.

“There are two scenarios. One scenario is they get the support to maintain defensive lines. …

The second is there is not enough support and Ukraine will defend itself anyway, desperately and with less manpower.”

If Kyiv faces Russian forces with inadequate support this year, the ambassador said, there will be increased casualties and territorial losses, putting Ukraine on the back foot.

Ukraine and its partners must prepare for 2025 as “another year of war, not peace talks,” the ambassador said.

“If [the] West wants peace, it should not only respond to current Ukrainian needs, but use 2024 to provide Ukraine with everything that’s necessary to enter into offensive mode and make substantial gains in 2025.”

But Ukraine must meet some needs on its own. Field commanders have reported troop shortages along the front line, especially infantry who deploy at the forwardmost positions. Military commanders have pushed for a large-scale mobilization but Zelensky has voiced doubt even as Kyiv says Moscow is planning to conscript 300,000 more soldiers.. .