14 June 2024

Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration Loans for Ukraine (ERA)

Technical details of the plan, including the establishment of a fund under an international organization such as the World Bank and the utilization of “Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration” (ERA) loans, are expected to be finalized in the coming weeks, as reported by Reuters.

"The exact details of how the loan will be structured are to be defined by the finance ministers by the end of the year," 
(a source from a G7 country with knowledge of proceedings said.)


The declaration also sets "the end of the year" as the deadline to finalize an agreement.


HOWEVER, FIRST SEE THIS: 

UKRAINE INVESTMENT GUIDE

Developed by the Ministry of Economy and the KSE Institute the Ukraine Investment Guide was presented at URC 202411 
June 2024

The Ministry of Economy of Ukraine presented the Ukraine Investment Guide at the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2024 in Berlin. The Guide provides an overview of the key principles of Ukraine’s economic policy in the recovery sector and investment attraction, as well as examples of investment projects in priority sectors.

The Guide was prepared by the Ministry of Economy and the KSE Institute with the support of KPMG, EY, Deloitte, BDO, and the Tony Blair Institute. 

The document contains a detailed overview of Ukraine’s investment landscape, presenting available investment and financial opportunities, including 95 examples of investment projects that require about $27 billion in financing. 

Nowadays, investing and increasing access to finance is critical to maintaining the resilience of the economy and the ability of businesses to generate taxes for defense. Investors who enter Ukraine now or increase their presence in the country will be able to gain strategic advantages, and these investments will pay off for them in the medium to long term. Financial assistance from international partners covers a part of the risks and reduces the cost of financing, and new co-financing mechanisms with IFIs and DFIs support private investment additionally. Decarbonization as a global trend and significant energy losses in Ukraine have led to the creation of significant and urgent demand in these markets right now‘ said Natalia Shapoval, Chairman of the KSE Institute.

The Guide and the assembled investment projects are the results of work in sectoral groups with businesses, organized with the information and analytical support of the Kyiv School of Economics. Since July 2023, more than 1,100 projects have been assembled, with varying degrees of readiness and level of elaboration. 

The Investment Guide emphasizes the importance of developing priority sectors, as well as the processing industry to eliminate problems in export logistics and grow high-value-added industries. It contains a detailed overview of key sectors such as energy, infrastructure, agri-food, green steel, pharmaceuticals and medicine, critical materials, and IT, as well as examples of investment projects in these sectors. 

We acknowledge the challenges and risks associated with investing in Ukraine during the war, which is why, together with our partners, we strive to support investors through effective measures and incentives. These include guarantees from the 
  • Ukraine Facility, 
  • G7 countries, 
  • war risk insurance, 
  • targeted state support programs, 
  • deregulation, tax incentives, and 
  • affordable financing. 

We invite investors to join us on this transformational journey towards a sustainable and prosperous future for Ukraine, contributing to the country’s recovery and economic growth while reaping the dividends from it’ stated -----Volodymyr Kuzyo, Deputy Minister of Economy of Ukraine.

Reconstruction with international support will be a driver of Ukraine’s economic growth.  In addition, Ukraine’s progress toward EU membership approaches its standards to the European market, improving investment prospects.

The full text of the Ukraine Investment Guide can be found on the official site of the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2024 via the following link (https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/UkraineInvestmentGuide2024.pdf)

". . . If the whole amount of required financing for next year ($50bn) comes in the form of loans, Ukraine’s debt-to-GDP ratio will surge to 100%, assuming a stable exchange rate and GDP and slowing inflation. 

To keep Ukraine’s debt-to-GDP ratio in double-digit territory and ensure it is sustainable over the medium-term despite high reconstruction costs ,  donors should provide as much  financing as possible in the form of grants.

Country contributions
There are a number of different ways of calculating a fair approach to sharing the burden of financing Ukraine’s budget. 
  1. For instance, one simple approach would be to allocate the financial cost proportionally to GDP.  
  2. Another way would be to take the same approach, but also take account of aid already provided.  
  3. A third approach would be to look for a disproportionate response from European countries which are particularly at risk from an aggressive Russia, and propose for instance that they take sole responsibility for half of the support provided to Ukraine.  
  4. A fourth approach would be require a higher financial contribution from NATO members who are not meeting their commitment to  spend 2%  of GDP on defense, with  half of the total funding to be raised from such NATO members in proportion to the shortfall in their military spending. . . 

---- Kiev School of Economics (17 September 2022)  Financing Ukraine's Victory

Frozen Russian Central Bank Assets Generated $4.8 Billion In Interest  Income In 2023
Yellen on $50 billion Ukraine loan: More aid can be backed by ...
G7 Agrees on $50B Loan for Ukraine Using Frozen Russian Assets | UNITED24  Media

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G7 agrees on loan deal to support Ukraine with Russian assets

  • Political deal clinched on $50 billion Ukraine loan
  • G7 leaders meeting in secluded Italian hotel resort
  • Middle East, China and AI are on the agenda
  • Many leaders distracted by domestic political trouble
BORGO EGNAZIA, Italy, June 13 (Reuters) - Leaders of the Group of Seven major democracies agreed on an outline deal on Thursday to provide $50 billion of loans for Ukraine using interest from Russian sovereign assets frozen after Moscow invaded its neighbour in 2022.
The political agreement was the centrepiece of the opening day in southern Italy of the annual summit of G7 leaders, attended for a second successive year by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
He signed a new, long-term security accord with U.S. President Joe Biden after signing a 10-year security accord with Japan, with Tokyo promising to provide Kyiv with $4.5 billion this year -- underlining continued strong backing from the West.
Calling the frozen asset agreement a "significant outcome", Biden told reporters it was "another reminder to (Russian President Vladimir) Putin that we're not backing down."
The G7 plan for Ukraine is based on a multi-year loan using profits from some $300 billion of impounded Russian funds, the bulk of which are blocked in the European Union.
The technical details will be finalized in the coming weeks, with the new cash expected to reach Kyiv by the end of this year thanks to contributions from all G7 states -- the United States, Canada, Britain, France, Germany, Japan and Italy.

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