International Crisis Group Updates

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia director Olga Oliker to talk about the latest from Ukraine, whether a negotiated settlement can be reached anytime soon and the future of European security. 

• They discuss the Ukraine Summit of Peace in Switzerland and whether it met the expectations of Kyiv and other participants. 
• They give an update on what is happening on the battlefield and prospects for a negotiated settlement to end the war. 
• They also discuss Moscow’s and Kyiv’s demands, how they have evolved over the course of the war and what space exists for compromise. 

They talk about

1. European security at large, 
2. the threat Western leaders see from Moscow and 
3. the deterrence value of Europe’s military build-up.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

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Maidan uprising 10 years on: 'Russia made a decision to foment war where there wasn't a conflict'

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Uploaded: Feb 22, 2024

Days before the two-year anniversary of the war, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Moscow was exploiting delays in Western military aid, calling the situation "extremely difficult". A heightened Russian offensive in eastern and southern Ukraine saw Moscow's forces capture the key eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka last week, after months of battle. The surge comes as Ukraine marks the 10th anniversary of the shooting of dozens of protesters in Kyiv during a revolution that toppled the country's Moscow-backed leadership. The uprising also led to Russia's annexation of Crimea in Ukraine's south and a pro-Russian separatist movement in the east. For in-depth analysis and a deeper perspective on the 10th anniversary of the Maiden Revolution as we approach the second anniversary of Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine, FRANCE 24's Nadia Massih is joined by Olga Oliker, International Crisis Group's Program Director for Europe and Central Asia.

21 June 2024

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC  As war rages in neighbouring Sudan, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces are increasingly crossing over into the Central African Republic (CAR), doing business and recruiting fighters from armed groups there. A new UN report also confirms that the Sudanese army is stepping up air raids along the CAR border, heightening the risk of spillover. Crisis Group expert Charles Bouessel says the foreign incursions have greatly exacerbated criminal violence in CAR’s north, especially in the Vakaga prefecture. They could also aggravate the already dire humanitarian situation there as trade is disrupted and hostility rises toward Sudanese refugees perceived as being affiliated with the RSF.

ISRAEL-HIZBOLLAG  After a week of intensifying cross-border clashes between Israel and Hizbollah and the arrival of U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein in Lebanon, both sides signalled they were prepared to escalate their eight-month violent standoff into full-scale war. Hizbollah on Tuesday published drone footage of the port of Haifa in northern Israel, while the Israeli military claimed it had received approval for a broad offensive in Lebanon. The heightened rhetoric may just be posturing timed with Hochstein’s arrival, but regardless, the conflict between the two long-time adversaries may be reaching a dangerous inflection point. Crisis Group experts David Wood and Mairav Zonszein say a ceasefire in Gaza is imperative for defusing tensions between Israel and Hizbollah. But the U.S. envoy should spare no effort to bring the two sides to a deal of their own.

SOUTH EAST CHINA SEA  The Chinese coast guard on Monday searched and seized Philippine vessels on a resupply mission in the South China Sea’s Second Thomas Shoal. The incident, which left one Filipino sailor injured and the vessels damaged, prompted the Philippine military to accuse China of piracy. China blamed the Philippines for the confrontation, denying that its coast guard acted inappropriately. Crisis Group expert Georgi Engelbrecht says this encounter, the most serious this year, could trigger skirmishes between the Philippines and China. It also raises questions about potential U.S. involvement, given that Washington on Tuesday reaffirmed it will aid Manila in case of an armed attack, in line with the two countries’ Mutual Defence Treaty.

14 June 2024

GAZA  The Israeli army pressed deeper into Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city, amid wrangling over the ceasefire proposal announced by U.S. President Joe Biden last week. Biden presented the offer as approved by Israel, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not embraced it, instead insisting that Israel will keep pursuing its war aim of destroying Hamas (albeit without explicitly rejecting the deal, either). Hamas, for its part, has “welcomed” the proposal, as long as it leads to a permanent ceasefire with guarantees, while suggesting unspecified alterations it calls “not significant”. Crisis Group expert Joost Hiltermann says U.S., Egyptian and Qatari mediators must keep pushing to bridge the gaps between the sides, as this offer is the best and most realistic one to date for both. With much of Gaza facing catastrophic hunger, the imperative of ending the war is glaring.

MEXICO  A local councilwoman was shot dead last Friday at her home in Guerrero state, bringing the number of politicians killed around this year’s electoral campaign to 39, a record high. Crisis Group expert Falko Ernst says the toll highlights the challenge that criminal violence poses for Claudia Sheinbaum, who will become the country’s first woman president when she is inaugurated on 1 October. Vowing to take outgoing President Andres Manuel López Obrador’s political program to new heights, Sheinbaum won more than twice the votes of her closest rival in the 2 June election. Her MORENA party also secured a hefty parliamentary majority. But organised crime continues to seek sway over the state. Tackling it may well prove Sheinbaum’s toughest test.

PAKISTAN  Authorities said the army raided militant hideouts in the north-western Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province’s Lakki Marwat district Monday night, killing eleven militants it held responsible for taking the lives of an army officer and six soldiers with a roadside bomb a day earlier. Crisis Group expert Samina Ahmed says the military has escalated counter-insurgency operations amid months of mounting clashes with bands of Pakistani Taliban who (though the Afghan Taliban deny it) are regularly crossing into the country from Afghanistan. The military did not name the Pakistani Taliban in its initial report on the incident, but it rarely does in such cases. The surge in Pakistani Taliban militancy is straining relations between Islamabad and Kabul.

7 June 2024

HAITI  After nearly a month of discussions, the members of Haiti’s transitional presidential council last week appointed Garry Conille, a longtime UN development expert, as prime minister. Conille, who has previously served as prime minister from 2011-2012, is now working with the council members to form a cabinet, the last step before the official installation of a new government. Crisis Group expert Diego Da Rin says Conille and the presidential council should swiftly agree on individuals with sufficient experience and skills needed for key government positions as they face daunting tasks, including working, likely with the support of foreign forces, to loosen the grip of gangs over the capital, reforming the constitution, organising elections and revitalising the economy.

KOREAN PENINSULA  South Korea Monday announced the full suspension of a 2018 military agreement with the North and the resumption of frontline military activities. Seoul partly suspended the agreement last November after Pyongyang successfully launched a reconnaissance satellite into orbit. Shortly after, North Korea stated it would no longer be bound by the agreement. Tuesday’s decision followed a series of incidents involving North Korea sending trash-filled balloons over the border last week in response to South Korean activists allegedly floating anti-regime propaganda to the North. Crisis Group expert Chris Green says the prospect of increased military activity along the border inevitably heightens the risk of inter-Korean clashes and raises the prospect of potentially calamitous miscalculation on either side.

LEBANON  Clashes between Hizbollah and the Israeli military along the Israel-Lebanon border continued this week. Rockets fired from Lebanon Monday set off large-scale wildfires in northern Israel. A drone swarm launched at an Israeli military position Wednesday killed one soldier and wounded several more. Hizbollah claimed the latest attacks were in response to intensified Israeli strikes on Lebanon. On Wednesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel was “prepared for a very intense operation” in the north. Crisis Group expert David Wood says absent a ceasefire in Gaza, which Hizbollah has named as a precondition for stopping the attacks, the risk of continued clashes escalating into an all-out war remains high.

31 May 2024

BURKINA FASO  A government-organised national conference in the capital Ouagadougou over the weekend agreed to extend military rule by five years. The military leadership had stated earlier that elections, originally scheduled for July, are not a priority, saying the focus should instead be tackling the persisting jihadist violence in the country. Crisis Group expert Mathieu Pellerin says the decision is unlikely to make the transitional government any stronger, but it did allow President Ibrahim Traoré to show his increasingly numerous opponents that he retains support.

GAZA  The Israeli military this week expanded its air and ground offensive in the southern city of Rafah. An airstrike near the city Sunday killed at least 45 civilians in a tent camp. Aid agencies have warned that Israel’s operations in Rafah have significantly disrupted already difficult aid deliveries. Meanwhile, Israeli National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi Wednesday stated the war will continue for at least another seven months. Crisis Group experts Mairav Zonszein and Tahani Mustafa say prolonging the war is unlikely to bring Israel closer to its aim of eradicating Hamas but it will deepen the humanitarian catastrophe millions of civilians in Gaza already face. The U.S. and other outside powers urgently need to ramp up pressure for a ceasefire.

SUDAN  Sudan’s army this week again rejected calls to return to negotiations with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Fighting between the two sides is intensifying, particularly in El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, where full-scale combat broke out earlier this month and UN agencies are warning of an increasingly dire humanitarian crisis. Crisis Group expert Shewit Woldemichael says external powers must redouble their efforts to stop the hostilities and bring the warring parties back to the table. They must also deliver crucial humanitarian aid to those in need, ensure accountability for those who target civilians and sustain pressure on outside actors perpetuating the conflict.

ON THE HORIZON / FROM EARLY WARNING TO EARLY ACTION 20 JUNE 2024

On The Horizon: June - November 2024

On the Horizon sounds the alarm about conflicts and crises that may emerge over the next three to six months. It identifies key actors and dates to watch in support of global conflict prevention efforts.

CrisisWatch
Conflict Tracker MAY 2024View Latest Edition 

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Learn more about CrisisWatch 

Trends for Last MonthMay 2024

DETERIORATED SITUATIONS

Georgia Israel/Palestine Colombia Venezuela Cameroon Burundi Democratic Republic of Congo Taiwan Strait Bangladesh Myanmar New Caledonia (France) Egypt Tunisia Sudan Burkina Faso Mozambique

IMPROVED SITUATIONS

None

Outlook for This MonthJune 2024

CONFLICT RISK ALERTS

Israel/Palestine Lebanon Haiti Myanmar Mexico Sudan

RESOLUTION OPPORTUNITIES

None