World Weather Attribution (@WWAttribution) / X
The scientists found that climate change had increased the temperature of the hottest five-day period in June by about 1.4°C. Karina Izquierdo, Urban Advisor at the Red Cross Climate Centre, emphasized that even small temperature increases significantly heighten health risks, noting that the additional 1.4°C of heat caused by climate change could mean the difference between life and death for many people during May and June.
The heatwaves have also had devastating effects on wildlife, with reports of howler monkeys dying in Mexico. Officials in various affected countries have highlighted the dangers posed by high nighttime temperatures, which prevent the body from recovering after hot days.
The WWA group conducts rapid-attribution studies on weather events worldwide to assess the role of climate change in their severity. By comparing current conditions with models of a world without human-induced global warming, scientists aim to provide critical insights into the impacts of climate change.
Regional Impacts
Extreme heat killing more than 100 people in Mexico hotter and much more likely due to climate change – World Weather Attribution
Climate change made the deadly heatwaves that hit millions of highly vulnerable people across Asia more frequent and extreme – World Weather
India: Northern India is experiencing a prolonged heatwave, with temperatures reaching 44–45°C. This extreme heat has led to record power consumption as residents heavily rely on fans and air conditioners, causing power cuts in Delhi.
Water supplies in the city have also been disrupted. Since the onset of summer in March, dozens of heat-related deaths have been reported, including 50 fatalities over three days earlier this month in the states of Uttar Pradesh and Odisha.
Saudi Arabia: Extreme heat in Saudi Arabia has resulted in the deaths of over 1,000 pilgrims during the annual Hajj pilgrimage in Mecca. The Saudi National Meteorological Center recorded a high of 52°C at the Grand Mosque, underscoring the severe conditions faced by worshippers.
Greece: Greece has reported several deaths during its earliest recorded heatwaves, affecting both locals and tourists, including British TV and radio presenter Michael Mosley. Authorities have responded by closing landmarks such as the Acropolis in Athens and shutting down schools. Firefighters are also combating wildfires, exacerbated by hot winds from North Africa.
These incidents underscore the global reach and diverse impacts of extreme heat waves, exacerbated by climate change. They reinforce the urgent need for concerted international efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change and reduce emissions to prevent further escalation of these dangerous conditions.
What Can We Expect in the Near Future?
Even if all carbon emissions were halted today, the world has already released enough greenhouse gases to ensure that climate change will continue to push temperatures upward for decades. According to scientists from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the world must cut emissions in half from 1995 levels by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050 to keep the average global temperature rise to around 1.5°C (2.7°F) above the pre-industrial average.
However, instead of decreasing, global emissions have continued to rise since 1995. If current trends continue, the world is on track to reach a temperature increase of 2.7°C (4.9°F) by 2100. This far exceeds the 1.5°C (2.7°F) threshold, beyond which scientists predict catastrophic and irreversible climate impacts.
The unprecedented heat waves affecting millions of people in the United States underscore the urgent need to address climate change.
Latest analyses
- Extreme heat killing more than 100 people in Mexico hotter and much more likely due to climate change
- Increasing April-May rainfall, El Niño and high vulnerability behind deadly flooding in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran
- Climate change, El Niño and infrastructure failures behind massive floods in southern Brazil
- Urban planning at the heart of increasingly severe East African flood impacts in a warming world
- Autumn and winter storm rainfall in the UK and Ireland was made about 20% heavier by human-caused climate change
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World Weather Attribution
When an extreme weather event occurs, people often ask: is climate change to blame?
For decades, climate scientists have answered that question in general terms – that as the planet warms, we can expect many of these weather events to become more frequent and extreme.
But in recent years, advances in attribution science have allowed researchers to answer the question in much greater detail.
In 2015 Dr. Friederike Otto, Dr. Geert Jan van Oldenborgh and the non-profit Climate Central, serving as secretariat as well as helping to secure initial funding, founded World Weather Attribution (WWA).
Working with scientists around the world, WWA quantifies how climate change influences the intensity and likelihood of an extreme weather event in the immediate aftermath of the extreme event using weather observations and computer modelling. To encourage actions that will make communities and countries more resilient to future extreme weather events, WWA studies also evaluate how existing vulnerability worsened the impacts of the extreme weather event.
The results are made public as soon as they are available, often days or weeks after the event, to inform discussions about climate change and extreme weather.
For example, in July 2021, just 11 days after temperatures in Pacific northwest areas of the U.S. and Canada reached high above 40ºC, shattering records by as much as 5ºC, a WWA study found that climate change made the heatwave at least 150 times more likely and 2ºC more intense.
Since its inception in 2015, WWA has now performed more than 60 attribution studies on heatwaves, extreme rainfall, drought, floods and forest fires around the world. The methods used have been improved over the years and have been published in the peer-reviewed scientific literature together with many of the studies of individual events.
To contact World Weather Attribution, email wwamedia@imperial.ac.uk
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