17 June 2024

UPDATES: F-16s for Ukraine...Looks Like Not Now, Later Than Expected Not Sooner

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zekenskyy started asking allies to donate warplanes and deliver pilot training to his armies within days of Russia launching its full-scale invasion of the country in late February 2022.
Zelensky fires heads of military enlistment in all Ukrainian regions
Ukraine air force says no use of US-built F-16 fighter jets this year |  Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera
Aug 21, 2023 — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has called the decision a "breakthrough agreement". Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said on Saturday ...
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  • But the 10 Ukrainian pilots currently in France are the first batch to receive a six-month training there. 
  • Before that, they were in the UK and after, they’ll likely head to Romania for the third and final phase of training.
During the several months they spent in the UK, each one spent about 70 hours operating a GROB-115 aircraft, an easy-to-handle general aviation aircraft with a maximum speed of about 220 km/h.
In France, they’ve graduated to an Alpha Jet plane, a light attack jet and advanced jet trainer with a top speed of over 900 km/h that they will man for about 80 hours in the air with an additional 60 hours in a simulator. In Romania, they can expect to pilot F-16s - the American-made supersonic fighter jet with a 2,100 km/h top speed - for 60 hours.
Then, they’ll return home where it is hoped their newly acquired skills can help tip the war to Ukraine's advantage.


MOST RECENT "Very soon"

Zelenskyy: Danish F-16s will arrive in Ukraine very soon

SUNDAY, 16 JUNE 2024, 15:33
Zelenskyy: Danish F-16s will arrive in Ukraine very soon | Ukrainska Pravda

According to plans, the Ukrainian Air Force should receive F-16 fighters from Denmark in the summer of 2024.

Винищувач Lockheed Martin F-16AM/BM Fighting Falcon повітряних сил Данії. Фото з відкритих джерел.Eight Ukrainian tactical aviation pilots began their training in Denmark in August 2023.
Training takes place at Skrydstrup Air Base, where the Danish Air Force Fighter Wing is stationed with the 727 and 730 Squadrons.
  • In addition to pilots, another 65 specialists must undergo training in the maintenance and repair of this type aircraft.
  • Denmark has pledged to transfer 19 aircraft to F-16, which in the 2000s were upgraded under the Mid-Life Update (MLU) program.
Винищувачі F-16 Повітряних сил Данії. Фото: RDAF
Future Ukrainian fighters during the MLU program underwent major repairs and received, in particular, a more modern AN/APG-66(V)2 radar.
Recall that Denmark has not opposed using transferred F-16 fighters to conduct attacks on targets within the Russian Federation.
“Ukraine can use what we have sacrificed, including abroad, that is, for goals in Russia, if it complies with international law,” said Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen.
Two French Air Force instructors supervise a training session for a Ukrainian pilot in a simulator, southwestern France, June 14, 2024.
Two French Air Force instructors supervise a training session for a Ukrainian pilot in a simulator, southwestern France, June 14, 2024.Alice Tidey/Euronews
A three-phase training programme
Western vs Soviet mentality

The precise location of the training and the identity of the instructors are kept under wrap because “we have very real, very clear warnings about people who are trying to obtain intelligence or take strong action against this training,” Colonel Yann Malard, the director of French Air and Space Force Public Affairs, told reporters during a one-day observation trip for media last week.
Euronews was not allowed to speak to any of the Ukrainian soldiers but “they are very receptive and motivated,” the colonel commandant of a French air force base stressed to Euronews, adding that “they very much see the benefit of doing this".
This includes learning to prep their mission, briefing it, navigating with or without GPS, including at very low altitudes, dropping bombs and flying in formation, the latter of which is a core Western tenet.
In fact, one of the main tasks for the French trainers - which include active duty instructors, so-called “subscribers” or former pilots now in the état-major, as well as reservists - is to replace any Soviet-style teachings these young pilots might have received with Western modus operandi.
“The way the Ukrainians have been trained and the way the missions are conducted on the Western side is radically different. On the Western side, pilots are given a great deal of autonomy to make decisions and carry out their mission,” the colonel commandant told Euronews.
“In the Russian world, the pilot is more an effector for someone on the ground, who is in front of a radar and who might tell them ‘go right, go left’ (...) and that’s quite a radical change. And when you’re used to doing it in a different way, well, it’s a real challenge,” he added.
Maps and satellite images are used to by Ukrainian trainees to plot their missions, southwestern France, June 14, 2024.
Maps and satellite images are used to by Ukrainian trainees to plot their missions, southwestern France, June 14, 2024.Alice Tidey/Euronews

'They might not go over the gates'
Whether the Ukrainian Air Force ends up keeping these modi operandi is another matter and as this is the inaugural training programme, there is no feedback yet from the Ukrainians.
“It's not necessarily tactical and they might not go over the gates and fly over occupied territory,” Lieutenant-Colonel François (name withheld), who is in charge of the training, told Euronews.
The Ukrainian état-major might, for example, decide that the cost of losing such an expensive and sparse piece of equipment is too high. Euronews contacted the Ukrainian Air Force Command but had not received an answer by the time of publication.
According to the Oryx Blog, which keeps track of losses on the battlefield by verifying visual documentation, 
  • Moscow has destroyed 75 Ukrainian aircraft and damaged two more since the start of its full-scale invasion. 
  • This constitutes a very large chunk of the roughly 100 Soviet-made MiG-29, Su-24 and Su-25 fighter jets the country had before Russia launched its unprovoked attack.
Kyiv, meanwhile, has successfully downed 92 Russian combat aircraft and damaged an additional four. . .
A Ukrainian pilot takes part in a simulator training session in southwestern France, June 14, 2024.
A Ukrainian pilot takes part in a simulator training session in southwestern France, June 14, 2024.Alice Tidey/Euronews
French warplanes heading to Ukraine
Poland and Slovakia have already helped replenish Ukraine’s warplane arsenal by donating multiple MiG-29 warplanes. Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, and now France have all pledged to send Western warplanes, F-16s for the first four, and Mirages 2000-5s for the latter.
French President Emmanuel Macron announced the pledge earlier this month following the D-Day commemorations in Normandy that Zelenskyy attended. 
  • Yet it is still unclear how many aircraft will be provided. 
France has 26 Mirages 2000-5s, which have a top speed of about 2,300 km/h and which the country uses primarily in a defensive capacity, to police its skies and that of its allies.
But Macron said that an “international coalition” of donors would be set up - only eight other countries (Brazil, Egypt, Greece, India, Peru, Qatar, Taiwan, the UAE) have this model.
A French Air Force source confirmed that the training and delivery of Mirage 2000-5s has not yet been scheduled but that discussions between France and Ukraine are underway.
For France, which has few of them, the donation will force a reorganisation of its fleet as its Mirages are all deployed and will need to be replaced in squadrons, most likely by more modern Rafales.
But while France has been using them in a purely defensive capacity for decades, Ukraine could in theory use them in a more lethal way.
“Today, in fact, there are hardware, software solutions to enable it to be transformed into a ground attack capacity,” the source said. “In practical terms, this would take a few weeks or months.”
France, which has other warplanes including the Rafale, had decided not to pursue that avenue and confine the Mirage 2000-5 to defence only, “but today, as part of the transfer with Ukraine, this is actually an option."
"That doesn't mean it will happen, but discussions are underway."

The USA has authorized Denmark, Norway, and the Netherlands to transfer 65 F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jets to Ukraine

The Foreign Affairs Committee of the US House of Representatives evaluated a series of notifications during the month of February proposing the transfer of 65 F-16A/B Fighting Falcon MLU fighter jets from Denmark, Norway, and the Netherlands to Ukraine. 
Despite the mentioned countries expressing their intention to donate the aircraft, the estimated cost of the initiatives amounts to USD 1.683.5 billion, including spare engines, simulators, manuals, tools, and various materials for operating and sustaining the F-16s.
Image: Darek Buczynski vía Forsvaret.

From the summary of the Foreign Affairs Committee, it is revealed that Denmark will make available six F-16 Block 10, thirteen F-16 Block 15 aircraft, additional engines, and support equipment. 

  • The transfer is valued at USD 87.5 million. It is worth noting that the Danish government has not only been one of the promoters of the initiative to provide F-16s to Ukraine but is also one of the few countries training pilots and technical personnel.
  • Regarding the Danish F-16s, the Defense Ministers of Argentina and the Nordic country recently signed a letter of intent for the purchase of 24 F-16A/B MLU aircraft, an acquisition process that is expected to be formalized in the coming weeks with the signing of a contract. The Royal Danish Air Force upgraded a total of 61 F-16A/B aircraft to the MLU standard, a fleet that was reduced to about 44 aircraft a few years ago and is being replaced by 5th generation F-35A Lightning II fighters.

In the case of Norway, the transfer includes up to 22 F-16 Block 10/15 aircraft, engines, support equipment, test benches, tools, maintenance materials, simulators, spare parts, manuals, and technical documents, among others. 

The document mentions that the original acquisition value is approximately USD 1.326 billion. Norway has made available a couple of F-16s for the training of Ukrainian crews, while also forming a core group of instructors to support the Danish effort.

F-16AM Dutch flying over Afghanistan, years ago. Image: USAF.
Finally, the case of the Dutch RSAT was also discussed. 
  • On this occasion, it mentions 24 F-16 Block 10/15 aircraft as well as similar supplementary materials to those of Norway. 
  • The Dutch initiative initially involved the transfer of 18 fighters, however, that number would be expanded after the decision to cancel the sale of another six aircraft to the company Draken.
The Netherlands has been another major proponent of the project to deliver F-16 fighters to the Ukrainian Air Force. 
  • In the early months, the Dutch government was willing to transfer its F-16s to third parties in order to release combat aircraft of Soviet origin. Although this initiative did not come to life, it was a first step for the project of the previously mentioned European countries.
The Dutch commitment is such that in the last week of March, the Ministry of Defense announced the purchase of air-to-air missiles for the F-16s donated to Ukraine, an initiative valued at USD 150 million. In this way, the European state confirmed once again its commitment to supporting Ukraine in the context of the armed conflict it faces with Russia.
F-16B Norwegian armed with six AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles. Image: Luftforsvaret.
It is necessary to remember that the idea of ​​transferring F-16s to Ukraine did not initially have the approval of Washington, it was a plan that matured over time until it received the green light. However, the USA has only committed to training Ukrainian personnel, leaving aside any intention related to the delivery of aircraft.

Earlier it was reported that some of the F-16 fighters that Ukraine will receive from its Western partners will be deployed at air bases outside of Ukraine. 
  • This will be done to protect the valuable equipment from Russian attacks.
As reported by OBOZ.UA, Ukraine may receive at least three to six F-16 aircraft this year. In the future, it is possible to supply a larger number than today, as the countries that have them in service are gradually rearming with fifth-generation F-35 fighters.


Romania prepares Ukrainian border closest Air Base to Ukrainian F-16 arrivals.

14 Jun, 2024 - 11:05
Defense News Aerospace 2024

We spoke to you a few days ago about the possibility of basing Ukrainian F-16s in NATO countries, and concurrently we learned that Romania has begun significant expansion and modernization of its ideally located air infrastructure, near the combat zone in Ukraine. However, the official reason given cites the threat from the east, which invites interpretation. Yet these monumental works on the scale of Romania are part of a desire to strengthen military capabilities.

RAF Eurofighter Typhoon  on taxiway during air policing mission, Mihail Kogălniceanu Air Base  (Picture source: Romanian Air force)


The Romanian Minister of Defense, Angel Tîlvăr, announced this decision on June 11 during a ceremony at the Mihail Kogălniceanu Air Base, located less than 200 kilometers (124 miles) from the Ukrainian border. This base is capable of accommodating F/A-18s as well as F-16s
  • The extension project for the military base, which has housed American capabilities and forces since 1999, was approved before the large-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022. The reason for Romania's decision to expand its capabilities here is the result of Russia's invasion of Georgia in 2008, and then Crimea in 2014. 
  • The plans have been approved since 2018 for this purpose, said Romanian Air Force Colonel Nicolae Cretu, commander of the base, during the NATO-led Ramstein Legacy exercise.
The work will involve the construction of a new runway, a guard tower, and additional hangars to protect existing and forthcoming military assets purchased by this Eastern European country. The official estimated that the cost associated with the expansion would amount to 2.5 billion euros.
It thus appears to be a strategic position for possible foreign F-16s that could operate from this base and maintain an interesting range despite the distance.
Romania has several ongoing acquisition programs, mainly focused on short and very short-range air defense systems, for which it plans to spend up to $2.1 billion.
It also received two additional Patriot batteries last year, now totaling four, and is participating in the joint purchase of up to 1,000 Patriot PAC-2 GEM-T missiles as part of the European Sky Shield initiative.
The location of the air base has proven highly strategic in recent years, both for Romania and its NATO allies. 
  • For example, the Romanian officer cited the base's value during the Iraq War, as it was used by allies to project forces outside their territories and over long distances.
Romanian media reported that the modernization effort involves constructing a military facility similar in size to the Ramstein Air Base in Germany, although the official did not confirm this aspiration.
Given its direct access to the Black Sea and proximity to Russian territory, the air base has hosted several enhanced air policing missions led by NATO, including this year's edition, which welcomed the first-ever deployment of a Finnish F/A-18 Hornet fighter jet.


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AMERICAN TACTICAL FIGHTER
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