Expectations for the future of the economy were for slower growth over the next six months due to uncertainty around the upcoming election, domestic policy, geopolitical conflict, and inflation.
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book - July 17, 2024
The Beige Book
Summary of Commentary on
Current Economic Conditions by
Federal Reserve District
July 2024
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Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia ....................................................................... 13
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ............................................................................ 17
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond ........................................................................... 21
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ................................................................................ 25
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago .............................................................................. 29
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ............................................................................. 33
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis ....................................................................... 36
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City ........................................................................ 40
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas .................................................................................. 44
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco .................................................................... 48
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About This Publication
What is the Beige Book?
The Beige Book is a Federal Reserve System publication about current economic conditions
across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. It characterizes regional economic conditions and prospects based on a variety of mostly qualitative information, gathered directly from each District’s
sources. Reports are published eight times per year. What is the purpose of the Beige Book?
The Beige Book is intended to characterize the change in economic conditions since the last
report. Outreach for the Beige Book is one of many ways the Federal Reserve System engages
with businesses and other organizations about economic developments in their communities.
Because this information is collected from a wide range of contacts through a variety of formal
and informal methods, the Beige Book can complement other forms of regional information gathering.
The Beige Book is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.
How is the information collected?
Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers information on current economic conditions in its District
through reports from Bank and Branch directors, plus interviews and online questionnaires completed by businesses, community organizations, economists, market experts, and other sources.
Contacts are not selected at random; rather, Banks strive to curate a diverse set of sources that
can provide accurate and objective information about a broad range of economic activities. The
Beige Book serves as a regular summary of this information for the public.
How is the information used?
The information from contacts supplements the data and analysis used by Federal Reserve economists and staff to assess economic conditions in the Federal Reserve Districts. The qualitative
nature of the Beige Book creates an opportunity to characterize dynamics and identify emerging
trends in the economy that may not be readily apparent in the available economic data.
This information enables comparison of economic conditions in different parts of the country, which can be helpful for assessing the outlook for the national economy.
Note: The Federal Reserve officially identifies Districts by number and Reserve Bank city. In the 12th District, the Seattle
Branch serves Alaska, and the San Francisco Bank serves Hawaii. The System serves commonwealths and territories as
follows: the New York Bank serves the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands; the San Francisco Bank serves American Samoa, Guam, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands.
The Board of Governors revised
the branch boundaries of the System in February 1996.
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The Beige Book does not have the type of information I’m looking
for. What other information is available?
The Federal Reserve System conducts a wide array of recurring surveys of businesses, households, and community organizations.
A list of statistical releases compiled by the Federal Reserve
Board is available here, links to each of the Federal Reserve Banks are available here, and a summary of the System’s community outreach is available here.
In addition, Fed Listens events have
been held around the country to hear about how monetary policy affects peoples’ daily lives and
livelihoods.
The System also relies on a variety of advisory councils—whose members are drawn
from a wide array of businesses, non-profit organizations, and community groups—to hear diverse
perspectives on the economy in carrying out its responsibilities.
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National Summary
Overall Economic Activity
Economic activity maintained a slight to modest pace of growth in a majority of Districts this
reporting cycle.
- However, while seven Districts reported some level of increase in activity, five noted flat or declining activity—three more than in the prior reporting period.
Wages continued to
grow at a modest to moderate pace in most Districts, while prices were generally reported to have
risen modestly.
Household spending was little changed this period according to most District
banks.
Auto sales varied across Districts this cycle, but some Districts noted that sales were
lower due in part to a cyberattack on dealerships and high interest rates.
Most Districts saw soft
demand for consumer and business loans.
Reports on residential and commercial real estate markets varied, but most banks reported only slight changes, if any, in recent weeks.
Travel and
tourism grew steadily and was on par with seasonal expectations.
Agricultural conditions varied in
tandem with sporadic droughts across the nation.
Districts also reported widely disparate trends
in manufacturing activity ranging from brisk downturn to moderate growth.
Retail restocking
spurred slight growth in transportation activity.
Meanwhile, tight capacity in ocean shipping led to a
surge in spot rates.
Expectations for the future of the economy were for slower growth over the
next six months due to uncertainty around the upcoming election, domestic policy, geopolitical
conflict, and inflation.
Labor Markets
On balance, employment rose at a slight pace in the most recent reporting period. Most Districts
reported employment was flat or up slightly, while a few Districts reported modest employment
growth. Several Districts reported declines in employment in the manufacturing sector due to slowdowns in new orders. Skilled-worker availability remained a challenge across all Districts; however, several Districts reported some improvement in labor supply conditions. Additionally, labor turnover was lower, which reduced demand to find new workers. Looking ahead, contacts in several
Districts expect to be more selective on who they hire and not backfill all open positions. Wages
grew at a modest to moderate pace in most Districts. However, several Districts reported some
slowing of wage growth due to increased worker availability and less competition for workers.
Note: This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond based on information collected on or before
July 8, 2024. This document summarizes comments received from contacts outside the Federal Reserve System and is not
a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.
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Prices
Prices increased at a modest pace overall, with a couple Districts noting only slight increases.
While consumer spending was generally reported as showing little to no change almost every District mentioned retailers discounting items or price-sensitive consumers only purchasing essentials, trading down in quality, buying fewer items, or shopping around for the best deals.
Most Districts noted that input costs were beginning to stabilize; however, Atlanta specifically noted
products like copper and electrical supplies have seen a notable increase over this period.
Highlights by Federal Reserve District
Boston
Economic activity rose modestly on balance. Prices increased slightly, and wage growth was slow
amid stable employment levels. Residential real estate activity increased with improvements in
supply, but commercial activity remained flat with increasing concerns for office leasing activity. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, but contacts continue reporting elevated uncertainty.
New York
On balance, regional economic activity was little changed. Labor market conditions continued to
moderate, with labor demand easing and the supply of workers increasing noticeably. Consumer
spending was up slightly and remained solid. Though inventory increased, home sales activity
remained restrained. Selling prices continued to increase at a modest pace.
Philadelphia
Business activity continued to grow slightly in the current Beige Book period. Nonmanufacturing
activity lifted job growth to a modest pace; however, wage inflation remained modest. Firms
reported modest increases in costs paid and prices received and noted increased competition in
consumer-facing sectors. Expectations for future growth remained slightly positive overall—waxing
for most firms, but waning for manufacturers.
Cleveland
District business activity declined slightly in recent weeks, and contacts expected flat activity in
the months ahead. Consumer spending continued to decline modestly, and demand for manufactured goods softened. Employment levels remained flat. Overall, contacts indicated that wage and
input cost growth remained moderate, and that selling prices grew modestly.
2 The Beige Book
Richmond
The regional economy grew slightly this period, down from a modest pace of growth reported last
cycle. Consumer spending on goods and food services was generally flat to up only slightly; however, spending on leisure travel increased moderately, particularly in coastal areas of our region.
Employment grew slightly and wage growth continued to exceed price growth, putting downward
pressure on margins for some businesses. Price growth remained moderate.
Atlanta
Economic activity was relatively flat. Labor markets stabilized; wage growth eased. Nonlabor inputs
cost growth slowed, on net. Consumer demand remained flat. Business and group travel improved.
Home sales were flat or slightly down. Transportation activity was mixed. Loan demand was flat.
Energy activity was mixed. Agricultural conditions improved.
Chicago
Economic activity increased slightly. Employment was up modestly; business and consumer
spending rose slightly; nonbusiness contacts saw little change in activity; and manufacturing and
construction and real estate activity edged down. Prices were up modestly, wages rose moderately, and financial conditions loosened a bit. Prospects for 2024 farm income decreased slightly.
St. Louis
Economic activity across the Eighth District has continued to slightly increase since our previous
report. Inflation pressures increased modestly, with slower price growth than in previous reports.
Reports on consumer spending were mixed. District crop conditions remain stable with high rainfall mitigating excessive heat.
Minneapolis
District economic activity fell slightly. Employment grew but labor demand softened. Wage pressures remained moderate, and prices ticked up modestly. Consumer spending was flat but some
segments remained healthy. Manufacturing fell and the outlook was negative. Commercial and
residential construction improved slightly, and home sales were mixed. Agricultural conditions fell
as farm income weakened.
Kansas City
The Tenth District economy expanded at a moderate pace. Hiring activity slowed as many businesses pulled back on new job postings, but employment levels were stable. Ongoing strength in
labor markets supported modest growth in wages. Consumer spending grew at robust pace, driven
by discretionary spending with particularly strong growth in travel-related consumption. Prices grew
at a modest pace as pass-through of costs remained difficult.
National Summary 3
Dallas
Economic activity rose slightly over the reporting period, buoyed by growth in nonfinancial services,
finance, and energy sector activity. Housing demand and retail sales weakened in part due to
elevated pricing and borrowing costs, while manufacturing output held steady. Employment
increased, and wage growth was moderate, though pressures eased. Outlooks were less pessimistic overall.
San Francisco Economic activity and employment levels were stable. Wages and prices grew slightly, while retail
sales fell slightly. Activity was mixed in services, manufacturing, and commercial real estate sectors, but continued to slow in residential real estate. Conditions in agriculture weakened a bit.
Financial sector conditions were little changed
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