Hazardous Weather Conditions
Current conditions at
Mesa / Falcon Field (KFFZ)
Lat: 33.46667°NLon: 111.73333°WElev: 1391.0ft.
Clear
93°F
34°C
Some features on this page are experimental - feedback is appreciated!
?
Phoenix, AZ⇓
Updated at
5:00 AM on Wed Jul 24, 2024
No Active Alerts5:00 AM on Wed Jul 24, 2024
| Wed Jul 24 | Thu Jul 25 | Fri Jul 26 | Sat Jul 27 | Sun Jul 28 | Mon Jul 29 | Tue Jul 30 |
| 113 | 113 | 112 | 110 | 109 | 109 | 109 |
| 91 | 91 | 91 | 89 | 90 | 88 | |
| HeatRisk Maps | Historical HeatRisk Data | ||||||
| No risk. | Risk to those extremely sensitive to heat. | Risk to those sensitive to heat. | Risk to most people. | Risk to everyone. |
| None | Minor | Moderate | Major | Extreme |
Note: All historical and forecast temperatures are for specific locations (e.g. Sky Harbor Airport in Phoenix). The daily HeatRisk forecast above is also for specific locations, except for Phoenix where the risk level (color) represents an average of six points around the Phoenix Metro Area.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 505 AM MST Wed Jul 24 2024 .UPDATE...Updated 12z Aviation Discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... A strong ridge of high pressure over the region will continue to result in above normal temperatures across southcentral AZ and excessive heat conditions along and west of the Colorado River through Friday.
Moisture levels will improve today and Thursday, resulting in more active thunderstorm activity across southcentral and southeastern AZ. Drier conditions are expected to arrive late this week into this weekend with slightly cooler temperatures anticipated. && .DISCUSSION... Latest mid-lvl water vapor imagery depicts the subtropical high still centered over southern NV. Anti-cyclonic flow around the high will continue to promote northeasterly winds aloft over southcentral AZ today. As we head into this afternoon, there will be another round of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the higher terrain areas NE of Phoenix. The difference today compared to yesterday will be higher moisture content (PWATs reaching 1.5-1.6") and increased instability (1000-1500 J/kg), especially across southeastern AZ. Therefore, thunderstorm coverage looks to be greater and more robust. Latest CAMs are indicating a cluster of storms moving south and west off of the Rim Country into the lower deserts late this afternoon and another secondary cluster of storms developing near Tucson. There will likely be a southward moving outflow boundary initially which will move through the Phoenix Metro area followed by a more potent southerly outflow arriving from Pinal County later this evening. Wherever collisions from these outflows occur will determine the location of additional thunderstorm development. Currently PoPs are highest in N Pinal County (up to 50%), however thunderstorm chances for the Phoenix Metro are also up around 30-40%. Farther west, storm coverage will be more isolated, however there will still be the possibility for outflow/thunderstorms to reach southwest AZ later tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has most of the area covered in a Marginal Risk today mainly for damaging wind gusts and latest HREF members do show a 10% chance for gusts exceeding 50 kts across most of Pinal and W Maricopa County this evening. Due to the higher probabilities of strong wind gusts, we have opted to issued a Blowing Dust Advisory for N Pinal County and the southeast valley beginning 23Z and lasting until 04Z. Besides the higher thunderstorm chances, temperatures today will still be above normal with highs topping out around 110-113F in the Phoenix Metro and up to 114-116F across southeast CA. By Thursday, the subtropical high will begin to sag southward and end up centered over N AZ. As this occurs, mid-lvl hghts/thicknesses will rise with 850 mb temps peaking around 30-31C across much of the region. This will allow temperatures to climb a degree or two, especially across the western deserts with highs peaking around 115- 117F. Coincidentally, major HeatRisk will increase in coverage across southeast CA and southwest AZ. Meanwhile, highs should again range from 109F-113F in the Phoenix Metro area. The overall steering flow is not expected to change much on Thursday with the mid-level flow still remaining out of the east to northeast. Global models continue to indicate a strong vortmax moving south and west along the eastern periphery of the high Thursday afternoon and evening. Therefore we will likely see another round of convection developing across the Rim Country and White Mountains.
There is uncertainty regarding storm coverage across the lower deserts depending on what happens today and if the atmosphere will be able to recover. However, all indications from high-res guidance point to another active day. Latest NBM PoPs range from 30-40% for the central deserts and up to 60% for the higher terrain of eastern and southeastern AZ on Thursday evening. The main risks will again be strong wind gusts and blowing dust as outflow boundaries converge over southcentral AZ. Ensemble guidance continues to be consistent in indicating an upper- level trough progressing into the Great Basin Region beginning on Friday. This will cause the subtropical ridge to become displaced further southward towards the international border while also weakening in the process. This pattern shift will result in drier westerly flow to settle in, dropping moisture levels. As a result, a decrease in monsoonal thunderstorm activity is likely, with activity mostly confined to far eastern and southeast AZ for Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will also cool by a few degrees as hghts aloft diminish overhead. Therefore, the excessive heat should come to an end by Friday. Highs this weekend will actually be largely below 110F. By early next week, the ensembles indicate that the subtropical ridge will quickly rebound and move back into the Four Corners region. At the same time, there are still indications from both the GFS and ECMWF deterministic model solutions of a potent inverted trough moving into the region from Mexico.
If this solution comes to fruition, then we will see a better chance for widespread
thunderstorm activity across the southern half of AZ early next week.
No comments:
Post a Comment