UK Intel analyses current conditions at the front
The UK Ministry of Defence Intelligence Update for June 30 provided analysis from across the line of contact.
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In Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, fighting is reportedly focused on the Aggregate Plant, where Ukrainian forces are attempting to dislodge Russian forces from this strongpoint in the south-east of the town. The town remains contested.
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No confirmed Russian advances have been made around Chasiv Yar over the last 72 hours. Combat has reportedly been most intense in Ivanivske and Klishchiivka, to the south of town. Ukrainian forces have reportedly countrerattcked in Klishchiivka making tactical gains.
In the Kurakhiv direction, west of Donetsk City, Russian forces have made further advances within the town of Krasnohorivka and are now likely in control of most of the town, with Ukrainian forces now only present in the extreme north of the settlement.
The Avdiivka-Pokrovsk sector remains the probable Russian main effort and continues to see the highest Russian operational tempo. Russian forces have made minor advances across a relatively broad front towards the village of Niu-York, Pivinchne and Pivdenne. Over the next week the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk sector is likely to remain an area of significant operational focus for Russian forces as they attempt to maintain pressure on defending Ukrainian forces, and make opportunistic territorial gains.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv axis: There were 9 assault actions of the enemy in the areas of Vovchansk and Hlyboke. Two of which are ongoing. The situation is under the control of Ukrainian Defense Forces.
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Kupyansk axis: The enemy made 8 attempts to breach Ukrainian positions near the settlements of Synkivka, Pischane and Stelmakhivka.
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Lyman axis: The enemy attacked Ukrainian positions 16 times in the vicinity of Makiivka, Nevske, Terny and Torske. The situation is under the control of Ukrainian defenders.
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Siversk axis: Russian forces carried out 6 assaults in the vicinity of Verkhnokamianske, Spirne and Vyimka.
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Kramatorsk axis: Ukrainian defenders, over the day, repelled 8 attacks in the vicinity of Chasiv Yar
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Toretsk axis: Russian forces, assisted by aviation, made 6 attempts, assisted by aviation, to breach Ukrainian positions in the vicinity of Pivnichne, Toretsk and Pivdenne. All offensive actions of the enemy have been repelled.
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The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk axis: The situation in this area remains tense.The enemy conducted 39 attacks against Ukrainian defences in this area over the last day in the vicinity of Vozdvizhenka, Novooleksandrívka, Prohes, Yevhenívka,, Novoselívka Persha and Yasnobrodivka
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Kurakhove axis: The enemy, supported by aviation, 17 times unsuccessfully attacked the positions of the Defense Forces. Two clashes are still ongoing. Defense Forces take measures to strengthen borders and prevent the enemy's advancement.
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Vremika axis: The enemy made several attacks in this direction over the last day.
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Orikhiv axis: The enemy made 3 attacks in the vicinity of Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka
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The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk axis: The situation has not experienced significant changes.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russia attempting new ways to attack Kyiv, military says
The Russian military is trying a new approach to attack the capital, Kyiv, Serhii Popko, the head of the Kyiv City Military Administration, said on June 30. The Kyiv Independent writes.
"The aggressor is trying new tactics – it is looking for the right time, methods, and means to hit Kyiv. Because the capital of Ukraine has always been and will be one of the highest priority targets for the invaders," Popko wrote on Telegram.
Russian forces attacked Kyiv on June 30 with missiles at around 8 p.m. local time. The debris hit a 14-story residential building in the Obolon district.
A residential apartment building in the northern part of Kyiv was on fire after being struck by debris, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said on June 30.
About 20 minutes before the strike was reported, Klitschko said that air defence systems were activated and warned residents to remain in shelters. The Air Force reported missiles were headed towards Kyiv.
"Debris fell on a residential building in the Obolonsky District of the capital city. There is a fire on the 8th and 9th floors. All emergency services are on site," Of the 14 stories in the building, two floors were partially destroyed and another balcony was also at risk, he said. Ten residents were evacuated Klitschko wrote on Telegram at 7:53 p.m..
Six people were treated for acute stress, including one elderly woman who was hospitalised, according to the mayor. The remaining five – including an 11-year-old-girl – were treated by medics on the scene.
Serhii Popko, head of the Kyiv City Military Administration, wrote on Telegram that the strike suggested a shift in Russia’s tactics.
“Today's missile strike on Kyiv differs from many recent enemy air attacks on the capital of Ukraine. The enemy did not strike in the dark, nor with combined or massive shelling. Nor with ballistic weapons or cruise missiles from strategic bombers,” wrote Popko. “The aggressor is trying out new tactics - he is looking for the right time, methods and means to strike Kyiv.”
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RUSSIAN WORLD
Russia’s devastating glide bombs keep falling on its own territory
Internal Russian documents show how often its glide bombs hit its own territory, likely due to faulty guidance systems, say experts. The Washington Post reports.
The powerful glide-bombs that Russia has used to such great effect to pound Ukrainian cities into rubble have also been falling on its own territory, an internal Russian document has revealed.
At least 38 of the bombs, which have been credited with helping drive Russia’s recent territorial advances, crashed into the Belgorod region on the border with Ukraine between April 2023 and April 2024, according to the document obtained by The Washington Post, though most did not detonate.
Roughly comparable to the more advanced American JDAM guided bombs, these glide bombs are large Soviet-era munitions retrofitted with guidance systems that experts say often fail — resulting in impacts on Russian territory.
The majority of the bombs were discovered by civilians — forest rangers, farmers or residents of villages surrounding the city. In most cases, the Defense Ministry didn’t know when the bombs had been launched, indicating that some of them could have been there for days.
According to the document, at least four bombs fell on the city of Belgorod itself, a regional hub with a population of about 400,000 people. An additional seven were found in the surrounding suburbs. The most, 11, fell in the Graivoron border region where some could not be recovered because of the “difficult operational situation.”
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The document, originally intercepted by Ukrainian intelligence and passed on to The Post, includes a spreadsheet of incidents citing emergency decrees on bomb cleanup and evacuation and appears to be a product of the Belgorod city emergency department.
Astra, an independent Russian media outlet, verified that many of the incidents in the document matched those it had collected from local governments and reports in local news media. People mentioned as witnesses have been confirmed as residents.
While the bombs usually fail to detonate, one of the first recorded hitting Belgorod in April 2023 did explode when it crashed into a normally busy street, creating a crater 65 feet wide, shattering windows, and hurling parked cars onto roofs of buildings. The impact happened at night, however, and no casualties were reported. A day later a second, unexploded bomb was found buried 23 feet into the ground.
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Russian military acknowledged at the time that the “accidental release of aircraft munition” from a Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber was behind the explosion. The document later confirmed it was FAB-500, a glide bomb, carrying a 500 kilogram, or 1,100 pound, payload.
According to its own tallies, Astra estimated that Russia has accidentally dropped more than a hundred bombs on its own territory as well as occupied areas in eastern Ukraine over the past four months — the same period that has seen a major increase in the use of glide bombs.
The glide bombs are a Soviet relic hailing from the Cold War, designed as “dumb bombs” to be dropped on a target. Russia adapted this large inventory of unguided bombs to modern warfare by retrofitting them with guidance systems known as UMPK kits — cheap pop-out wings and navigation systems.
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“A certain percentage of Russian bombs are defective. This problem has existed since they started using these UMPK kits and it’s not being fundamentally solved. We think these accidental releases are caused by the unreliability of these kits, something that does not seem to bother the Air Force,” Ruslan Leviev, a military expert with the Conflict Intelligence Group that has been tracking Russian military activities in Ukraine since 2014, said in a recent front line update.
“According to our estimates, only a fraction of these bombs fail, so it doesn’t affect the practical effectiveness of this weapon, no matter how cynical that may sound,” Leviev said. “Unlike Western high-precision bombs, the UMPK kits are produced relatively cheaply and in large quantities, using civilian electronics, where reliability requirements are much lower.”
Based on statements from the Ukrainians about the numbers of bombs launched and the tallies from Astra about misfires, the CIT estimated a failure rate of 4 to 6 percent.
“Under normal conditions, such a system would need to be improved, at a minimum, to avoid falls on populated areas on our territory, which we have already seen and which also led to casualties,” the group said to The Post in response to queries on the misfires. “We don’t know whether the Russian Federation is currently spending resources on this. Perhaps they are quite happy with this situation.”
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Russia will try to reproduce 2000s-era Western microchips by 2028
In a sign of how backwards Russia is in regards to electronic technology - the Russian government has set 2028 as the deadline for launching mass production of 65-nm microchips in the country. This task has been entrusted to the Zelenograd-based Mikron company, part of the Element group of companies. The Moscow Times reports.
In 2011, Mikron reached an agreement with the French-Italian component manufacturer STMicroelectronics to commence production of these microchips. However, in 2014, cooperation was suspended following the sanctions imposed on Russia due to its annexation of Crimea, says a source in the microelectronics market.
At present, Mikron produces semiconductors based on 180-90-nm process technologies. This technology makes it possible to produce microchips for transport cards, Internet equipment, and a narrow range of general-purpose processors.
However, 65-nanometer processors were first developed in 2005, with mass production by leading global microelectronics manufacturers like Intel, AMD, IBM, and others starting in 2006-2007. As of now, global semiconductor manufacturers – for example, Taiwan's TSMC – have advanced to mastering the 2-nanometer process technology.
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NEWS WORLDWIDE
Black Sea DeMining Operation Begins in Bid to Help Ukraine Exports
Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria started a joint mine-hunting force in the Black Sea on Monday to increase shipping safety, particularly for Ukrainian grain exports. Bloomberg reports.
The Istanbul-led initiative, the first major joint action of Black Sea nations since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, is aimed at defusing mines drifting into specific areas of the Black Sea as a result of the war.
Russia and Ukraine are key producers of grain, and the war has threatened the safe passage of shipments. Kyiv launched its own Black Sea export route last year after the collapse of a safe-corridor deal backed by Russia, Turkey and the United Nations. That has successfully boosted exports and helped the economy grow faster than forecast but the route remains risky.
Last year, a Russian missile strike near the key Ukrainian port of Odesa hit a commercial ship, killing a pilot and injuring others. A ship hired by agricultural giant Cargill Inc. was also damaged by an explosion while sailing from a Ukrainian port in the Black Sea in November.
Ukraine said in March that exports from its Black Sea ports had almost returned to pre-war volumes, after repeated attacks and disruptions since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Still, ports around Odesa face frequent strikes from Russia that continue to interrupt activity.
Ukraine has exported 37.4 million tons of agrarian products from Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi since the opening of the marine corridor in August 2023, the Ukrainian Infrastructure Ministry said on its website last week.
Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria are all part of NATO. Yet their shipping force is being handled outside of NATO, in part to avoid escalating tensions with Russia.
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MILITARY & TECH
Ukraine Receives Skynode S Universal Machine Vision for Drones from American Company Auterion
The Skynode S not only allows for targeting but also enables navigation without satellite guidance in conditions of total electronic warfare interference. It also supports swarm guidance and can be installed on any drone. Defense Express reports.
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The American company Auterion officially announced the successful development of the machine vision system named Skynode S, which is being delivered to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, where it has proven its real combat effectiveness. According to the company, the Skynode S is a mini-computer and flight controller built on cost-effective technologies and proprietary software.
"The software has already proven itself in combat missions in Ukraine, providing Ukrainian forces with advanced computer vision to counter and bypass the loss of GPS functions and radio frequency targeting in electronic warfare. It is the first to offer swarm control, fully autonomous flight, and resistance to interference. It provides unprecedented accuracy, increasing the probability of success from 20% to 90%," Auterion officially announced.
The company also notes that it developed the Skynode S in collaboration with government and industry partners from the USA, the European Union, and Ukraine. It is worth mentioning that Auterion, headquartered in Arlington, Virginia, USA, has R&D centres in Switzerland and Germany. Additionally, it should be noted that the company specialises in software and hardware solutions for drone automation rather than in the development of the drones themselves.
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Lorenz Meier noted that the development took only six very intense months. However, the result is a fully operational and efficient solution capable of processing three-dimensional objects that may be camouflaged, partially obscured, in low-light conditions, or in motion or rotation. This capability is crucial for implementing the automatic targeting function by operators of drone-kamikazes.
Defense Express has already explained in detail what machine vision is, how it works, and its purpose. In essence, it involves creating a cheap, miniature, and straightforward self-guidance system for drones that neutralizes enemy electronic warfare and reduces dependence on operator skill. This is why the company's claimed 90% effectiveness in targeting with the Skynode S-equipped drone, compared to 20% without it, "in the hands" of the operator, is entirely realistic.
Auterion also reported that the Skynode S enables drones to navigate over significant distances in conditions where satellite navigation is unavailable. This is accomplished using an algorithm that compares the drone's visual perception of the terrain with high-resolution satellite maps.
It should be noted that information about the use of this technology by Ukrainian long-range drones, specifically this new generation DSMAC, was disclosed back in April of this year. This technology, combined with automatic target detection and tracking, fully explains the effectiveness of Ukrainian long-range drone strikes.
That’s it for today’s Draft folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing, its free!
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