28 August 2024

Emergency meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Council on August 28

 


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Future Russian missiles: more range, more destruction, more dangerous for Europe..
28 Aug, 2024 - 13:46
Defense News Army 2024


Range as a threat for NATO
The appearance of the Iskander-1000 will pose a serious threat to F-16 fighters stationed at air bases deep within Ukrainian territory, provided these technological innovations are integrated into the armies quickly. From the Russian perspective, the American satellite networks HBTSS and PWSA will not be able to recognize whether a conventional Iskander-M missile launch or an extended-range Iskander-1000 missile launch is underway, which will force a reaction. and this at all launches of missiles from the Iskander family. This will lead to increased fatigue of flying personnel and technical staff, wear and tear of equipment, and additional unmasking of aircraft deployment sites.

Today, in the large-scale war being waged in Ukraine, one of the pillars of operations is missiles. 
  • On the Ukrainian side, these include the Storm Shadow, Scalp, or gliding bombs, while on the Russian side, the Iskander-M and Kinzhal missiles are the most used and most effective in terms of targets handled. 
However, intelligence from open sources allows us to show that Russia is developing new versions of these two types of weapons, intended to be more precise, more discreet, more enduring, in short, intended to be more effective and therefore more threatening to Europe.

 Let's take a brief look at the upcoming evolutions of these missiles.





Mig-31K carrying kinzhal missile to be dropped on Ukrainian infrastructures 
(Picture source: Russian MoD)

From Iskander-M to Iskander-1000
Due to the provisions of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty), the flight range of the Iskander-M missiles was limited to a distance of 500 kilometers. This applied to both the quasi-ballistic missile 9M723 and the cruise missile R-500.

The Iskander-M OTRK has become the most important element of long-range strikes, allowing for the rapid destruction of high-priority targets identified by reconnaissance means and located behind enemy lines. These include enemy fighter jets and helicopters at air bases, HIMARS launchers, artillery systems, concentrations of armored vehicles, and manpower. 
When firing the quasi-ballistic missile 9M723, the Iskander-M has a significant advantage: the interval between missile launch and its approach to the target is too short for the enemy to react.

Of course, the longer range of the Iskander-M would allow it to reach targets deep within enemy territory, and given that Russia, following the United States, withdrew from the INF Treaty and that adherence to its restrictions no longer made sense, it is not surprising that a version is under development "Iskander-M," which, according to open sources, has been named OTRK "Iskander-1000". The flight range of the Iskander-1000 OTRK missile will be 1,000 to 1,300 kilometers, depending on the type of warhead, while the speed and altitude of its flight trajectory should be comparable to the parameters of the hypersonic missile 9-S-7760 Kinzhal.

According to open sources, an increase in the missile's range and speed was achieved through the use of a new, more energy-intensive fuel, while simultaneously increasing its volume by about 10 to 15% and reducing the mass of the warhead to 300 kilograms. A maximum range of 1,300 kilometers can be achieved for a warhead with an even smaller mass - about 200 kilograms; it can be assumed that this will be a special warhead (SCU). In the final stage of flight, the Iskander-1000 missile is expected to be capable of performing anti-air maneuvers with an overload of about 25 to 30 g. In addition, it can be assumed that the Iskander-1000 OTRK missile should be equipped with onboard self-defense means, particularly an electronic warfare (EW) complex, as well as dipole firing means and thermal traps.

The emergence of a new modification of the Iskander-M missile suggests that similar efforts to increase range are ongoing in the development of the Kinzhal hypersonic missile.




Test of Iskander-1000 OTRK -means Operativno-Takticheskiy Raketnyy Kompleks : operational-tactical
missile system- ( Picture source: Telegram channels)


"Kinzhal-M" and "Kinzhal-MD"
The Kinzhal hypersonic aviation complex, created based on the missiles of the Iskander-M OTRK, has two possible development paths.
  1. The first involves reducing the size and weight of the Kinzhal complex missile to integrate this complex onto a larger number of tactical aircraft. 
  2. The second involves maximizing the flight range of the Kinzhal missile complex, with the aim of ensuring the defeat of American medium-range missiles throughout Europe. The first traces of designations such as "Kinzhal-M" and "Kinzhal-MD" appeared in open sources in 2022. Two years later, a little more data is available, albeit still vague and incomplete.
Thus, the Kinzhal-M hypersonic aviation complex should be used from tactical aircraft; it will likely be integrated first on aircraft such as the Su-34, then on the Su-35S, Su-30SM, and possibly the Su-57. Presumably, by analogy with the Iskander-1000 OTRK missile, the warhead mass will be reduced to about 300 kilograms and means of protection against interception will be installed - electronic warfare equipment, as well as dipole firing means and thermal traps.

The exact information about the flight range of the Kinzhal complex missile is classified, but, according to data from open sources, taking into account the flight radius of the MiG-31K carrier, the range of the Kinzhal complex is 2,000 kilometers and taking into account the flight radius of the Tu-22M3 carrier - 3,000 kilometers. 
  • Some sources claim that the range of the Kinzhal complex is 2,000 kilometers without considering the radius of the aerial vector, but this is probably an exaggeration since, in this case, the MiG-31 carrier aircraft could be based deep within Russian territory to minimize the risks of destruction at air bases by long-range Ukrainian kamikaze drones. On this basis, it can be assumed that the range of the existing Kinzhal missile is about 1,000 kilometers, plus/minus a few hundred kilometers. At the same time, the range of the hypersonic Kinzhal-M missile will probably be about 500 to 700 kilometers.

As for the Kinzhal-MD complex, it may exist in two versions.

The first option is when the range increase occurs in the same way as implemented in the Iskander-1000 missile, using a new, more efficient fuel, while simultaneously increasing its volume by about 10 to 15% and reducing the warhead mass to 300 kilograms, without significant changes in the weight and size characteristics of the rocket. In this case, the flight range of the hypersonic missile of the Kinzhal-D complex can be about 1,500 kilometers without taking into account the radius of the carrier; this version of the Kinzhal-MD will be used from the existing MiG-31K carriers.

The second option involves increasing the dimensions and weight of the Kinzhal-MD complex missile, taking into account the limitations imposed by carriers such as the Tu-22M3 and potentially the Tu-160M, the current launch platform the Mig-31K will no longer be able to carry this missile.

In particular, the existing missile of the Kinzhal complex has a mass of 4.3 tons, a length of 7.2 meters, and a diameter of 1.2 meters, while the X-22 missile used by the long-range bomber Tu-22M3 has a mass of 5.78 tons, a length of 11.67 meters, a diameter of 0.92 meters, and a height with a folded keel of 1.8 meters. If the strategic bomber Tu-160M is considered as a carrier, the maximum length of the missile will be limited by the length of the bay, which is 11.2 meters.

Thus, for the Tu-22M3 and Tu-160M aircraft, the advanced Kinzhal-MD missile could well increase by nearly 4 meters in length and 1.5 tons in weight. It is unlikely to be advisable to increase the length of the rocket itself; it may rather be equipped with an additional solid fuel booster stage - a booster. As a result, the Kinzhal-MD complex will represent the second stage - the Kinzhal-M complex rocket, complemented by the first stage - a booster, which will ensure maximum unification of the Kinzhal-M and Kinzhal-MD complexes.

A two-stage missile of the Kinzhal-MD complex in this configuration may have a flight range of about 2,000 to 2,500 kilometers without taking into account the radius of the carrier, which entirely covers the territory of continental Europe and Great Britain, when launching missiles from the Kinzhal-MD complex from Russian airspace.




Mig-31K carrying Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missile (Picture source: Russian MoD)

Conclusions : Range as a threat for NATO
The appearance of the Iskander-1000 will pose a serious threat to F-16 fighters stationed at air bases deep within Ukrainian territory, provided these technological innovations are integrated into the armies quickly. From the Russian perspective, the American satellite networks HBTSS and PWSA will not be able to recognize whether a conventional Iskander-M missile launch or an extended-range Iskander-1000 missile launch is underway, which will force a reaction. and this at all launches of missiles from the Iskander family. This will lead to increased fatigue of flying personnel and technical staff, wear and tear of equipment, and additional unmasking of aircraft deployment sites.

The Kinzhal-M missile, along with the Iskander-M, will become the main equipment used for deep strikes on enemy aircraft and helicopters located at air bases, HIMARS launchers, artillery systems, accumulations of armored vehicles.

As for the Kinzhal-MD, it is thought of as the main threat to medium-range ballistic and cruise missiles mounted on fixed or slightly mobile batteries, positioned farthest from the front line

NATO Crisis Meeting: Poland Stands Alone on Anti-Air Assistance to Ukraine.
28 Aug, 2024 - 12:33
Ukraine - Russia conflict

Polish officials have stated that the decision to allow the shooting down of Russian combat drones and missiles in Ukrainian airspace using Polish air defense systems was met with skepticism by NATO countries. 
Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, in a comment to the Polish news agency PAP, declared that he sees no support within NATO for intervention in Ukrainian skies. 
  • Kosiniak-Kamysz's statement was a response to Zelensky's remarks about negotiations with Warsaw on the possibility of shooting down missiles at least over the western part of Ukraine. 
  • However, as Zelensky pointed out, the Polish side does not want to be "left alone" with this decision. 
  • Kosiniak-Kamysz highlighted "great skepticism" on this issue among NATO countries and emphasized that "no country will make such decisions alone." 
  • Moreover, he added that it was not surprising that Zelensky underscored the importance of such a decision, as it is his role. 
  • However, he noted that the role of the Polish Ministry of Defense is to "make decisions in the interest of the Polish state."

It has also been confirmed by NATO's press service that, at Ukraine's urgent request, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will convene an emergency meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Council, which will be held on August 28. Previously, this meeting at the end of August was not scheduled.
NATO spokesperson Farah Dahlallah specified that Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov will update the allies via videoconference on the situation at the front and the urgent capacities and needs of Ukraine. 
It is presumed that Kyiv's urgent request for this meeting is related to recent developments in the Kursk region and Donbas, along with a series of strikes conducted by Russian forces behind enemy lines, and the repercussions of these strikes for Ukraine. It is also likely that Umerov will revisit the request for key NATO countries to permit the Ukrainian armed forces to launch long-range missiles deep into territory recognized by the 1991 treaties as Russian.
 

The U.S. Army has awarded a $52 million contract to Sikorsky, a subsidiary of Lockheed Martin, for the procurement of additional HH-60M Black Hawk helicopters. This variant, specifically designed for medical evacuation (MEDEVAC) operations, is equipped with advanced General Electric engines and state-of-the-art digital avionics, enhancing situational awareness, survivability, and overall performance, making it a crucial asset for the U.S. Army's emergency response missions. Read more.


Russian Il-20M SIGINT aircraft was intercepted by German Eurofighter over Baltic sea.
28 Aug, 2024 - 14:14
Defense News Aerospace 2024
Russian Il-20M SIGINT aircraft was intercepted by German Eurofighter over  Baltic sea
In a recurring episode in the Baltic region, a Russian Aerospace Forces Il-20M electromagnetic intelligence (SIGINT) aircraft was intercepted on August 26, 2024, by a Eurofighter from the German Air Force (Luftwaffe). This incident adds to a significant list of recent weeks involving various air resources from the Russian and German military forces deployed in the region.
Once again, a SIGINT Il-20M aircraft from the Russian Aerospace Forces was  intercepted by German Eurofighter jets over the Baltic
 

The United States is considering the possibility of escorting Philippine ships in the South China Sea amid escalating tensions with China. U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo discussed this option during a press conference on August 28, 2024, in Manila, alongside Philippine Armed Forces Chief General Romeo Brawner Jr.
 

According to information published by the Malaysian MoD on August 25, 2024, the Royal Malaysian Navy (RMN) has reported a serious incident involving the KD Pendekar, which experienced severe flooding.
 

Slovakia has announced its intention to purchase six batteries of the Israeli Barak MX surface-to-air missile (SAM) system as part of an effort to modernize its air defense capabilities. This deal, valued at approximately €554 million, is expected to significantly enhance the country's ability to defend its airspace against a range of threats.
 

On August 24, 2024, in an interview with Dagens Nyheter, Peter Nilsson, Saab’s Head of Advanced Programs, announced that Saab is advancing its development of both manned and unmanned fighter concepts as part of efforts to establish a sixth-generation combat air platform for the Swedish Armed Forces.
 

Poland is set to introduce a technological advancement at the upcoming International Defence Industry Exhibition (MSPO) in Kielce, with the unveiling of the X-FRONTER drone developed by WB Electronics. This compact drone, weighing just over one kilogram, is designed for easy transport in a backpack, offering infantry soldiers both reconnaissance and strike capabilities in an extremely portable form. Read more. 

Read full Defense news.
 

Northrop Grumman has introduced its solution for the U.S. Army's Improved Threat Detection System (ITDS) program, showcasing the Advanced Tactical Hostile Engagement Awareness (ATHENA) sensor. The ITDS program is part of the Army's broader initiative to enhance threat detection capabilities for its aviation units, ensuring better protection against emerging threats. Read more. 

Read full Defense news.
 

According to information published by RFA on August 27, 2024, China is poised to transfer two warships and a deep-draft pier to the Cambodian Navy at the Ream naval base, raising questions about Beijing's strategic intentions in the Gulf of Thailand.
 

The U.S. Navy, along with the Marines, is arguably the second most powerful air force in the world (after the U.S. Air Force). It has around 3,300 non-drone and training aircraft. Its combat fleet includes some of the most advanced fighter jets in the world, such as the F-35 stealth fighter, the F/A-18 Super Hornet, and the EA-G Growler. But what aircraft are the Navy and Marines planning to purchase during the 2025 fiscal year? Meanwhile, the U.S.
 

The Polish Defense Procurement Agency announced the arrival in Poland of a new batch of 12 K9A1 self-propelled howitzers. This new delivery indicates that Hanwha Aerospace is fulfilling the contract signed with the Polish Ministry of Defense according to the timeline specified in the agreement. These howitzers will equip the new Polish brigade created at the border with Belarus.
 

On August 27, 2024, Austrian Defence Minister Klaudia Tanner announced that Austria is considering an offer from the Italian Ministry of Defence for a joint procurement of M-346 jet trainers, which could also serve as light combat aircraft. Tanner stated that the timeframe for a decision is "not that far off," suggesting that discussions are moving forward.
 

On August 27, 2024, Leonardo DRS, Inc., a leader in defense technology, announced that it has secured a significant order worth $117 million to continue the production of next-generation thermal weapon sights for the US Army. This order is part of the ongoing Indefinite Delivery/Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract for the Family of Weapon Sights – Individual (FWS-I), ensuring the continuous supply of these essential systems.
 

The U.S. Air Force's strategy to disperse its aircraft across a broader network of bases throughout the Pacific, under the Agile Combat Employment (ACE) concept, faces significant challenges. This strategy, designed to complicate potential Chinese missile attacks, requires not only moving aircraft between bases but also strengthening the defenses of these installations against the growing threat of Chinese ballistic and cruise missiles. Read more. 

Read full Defense news.
 

According to information published by the French MoD on August 23, 2024, the Liberian-flagged oil tanker Sounion, owned by a Greek shipping company, was targeted in two separate attacks carried out by small boats in the Red Sea, off the coast of Yemen.
 

On August 28, 2024, Aurora Flight Sciences, a Boeing company, announced that it had completed a seven-hour test flight with the SKIRON-XLE, a small drone powered by a hydrogen fuel cell. The test took place at an airfield in Virginia, marking a progression in flight endurance for Group 2 drones.
 

Poland will allocate 4.7% of its GDP to defense in 2025, marking an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to the 2024 defense budget, according to budget plans that Polish media have reported. Poland is already the NATO country that spends the most on defense, with a budget amounting to 4.1% of GDP in 2024. However, the Polish government plans to further increase the defense budget by 0.6 percentage points next year.
 

A recent US intelligence assessment reported by The Wall Street Journal reveals that Russia has relocated 90% of its military aircraft to bases out of range of the US-supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) that Ukraine began receiving earlier this year. This strategic move by Russia aims to mitigate the growing threat posed by Ukraine's ability to strike deep into Russian-occupied territories using these long-range missiles. Read more. 

Read full Defense news.
 

On August 23, 2024, the U.S. Department of Defense delivered 24 International M1224 MaxxPro Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles to Kenyan personnel deployed in Haiti as part of the ongoing Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission. These vehicles will be added to an existing fleet of 10 MRAPs that the United States has already provided to assist the Haitian National Police (HNP) in their operations to restore security in areas affected by gang violence.
 

According to a PR published by Exail on August 27, 2024, the company has secured a €60 million contract from the NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA) to supply underwater mine disposal vehicles and associated equipment.
 

Ukrainian F-16s may have participated in their first combat actions on August 26, 2024, during what was described as the largest Russian air raid against Ukraine to date, involving a total of 127 missiles and 109 one-way attack drones. In a live-streamed event with the press, Ukrainian President Zelensky claimed that the F-16s were involved in the defense and shot down an unspecified number of cruise missiles.
 

On August 26, 2024, the official X page of the 101st Airborne Division released images from Operation Lethal Eagle, conducted on April 19, 2024, where the 2nd Battalion, 502nd Infantry Regiment, part of the 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault), demonstrated the power and versatility of the Infantry Squad Vehicle (ISV).
 

An American RQ-4 Global Hawk arrived at the Royal Air Force base in Fairford, England, on Thursday for a temporary deployment, as part of efforts by the U.S. Air Forces in Europe - Air Forces Africa to diversify operational sites and enhance integration with NATO allies. This marks the first deployment of a U.S. RQ-4 in England. The deployed RQ-4 will conduct operations in international and allied airspace in accordance with international norms and standards.
 

The first EA-37 Compass Call aircraft ready to undertake an Air Force mission took off last week for Davis-Monthan Air Force Base in Arizona, marking the beginning of a major upgrade to the service's electronic warfare fleet. The EA-37 replaces the aging and struggling EC-130H Compass Call. By the end of the 2023 fiscal year, only six aircraft remained in the fleet, with an average age of 49 years and a mission capability rate of only 33%.
 

AeroVironment Inc., based in Simi Valley, California, has been awarded a significant contract valued at $990 million by the U.S. Army. This hybrid contract, which includes both fixed-price and cost-plus-fixed-fee elements, aims to enhance the capabilities of dismounted infantry units by providing them with advanced long-range weapons. The goal of this contract is to equip U.S.
 

According to information published by Navy Lookout on August 27, 2024, the Royal Navy's HMS Somerset departed from Devonport Naval Base, with an advanced suite of armaments on board. Notably, the Type 23 frigate has re-embarked Naval Strike Missiles (NSMs).
 

The United States announced on August 23, 2024, that it has approved a new support agreement for Australia's future fleet of AH-64E Apache attack helicopters. This agreement, valued at an estimated $300 million (AUD 444 million), further strengthens the already solid strategic ties between the two nations.
 

The conflict in Ukraine continues to highlight adaptive military strategies by Russian forces. In a video released on August 27, 2024, on the official website of the Russian Ministry of Defense, crews of the MT-12 Rapira anti-tank gun, also known as the 2A29, can be seen operating within the Zapad Group of Forces. This is not the first time such footage has been released; in December 2023, units from the Vostok Group were shown using the MT-12 Rapira in southern Donetsk. Read more.
 

On August 20, 2024, Avtobusy y Vobbechle reported that the Moscow Metro had purchased a Chinese-made armored vehicle, believed to be the Dongfeng EQ2091XFB. This acquisition is part of a pattern observed in recent months, during which the Moscow Metro has steadily increased its number of armored vehicles, including the addition of at least 15 domestically produced armored cars, such as the Buran, the Z-STS Akhmat, and the Astasis Patrol. Read full defense news at this link...
 

According to information published by the US DoD on August 23, 2024, the US Secretary of State has approved a possible Foreign Military Sale to the Government of India for Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) sonobuoys and related equipment, with an estimated value of $52.8 million.

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