UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-08-21
Grumpy
Aug 21
- During the past day, 153 combat engagements took place. Over the past hours, the enemy carried out 6 missile strikes, 73 air strikes, 595 drone strikes and more than 3,300 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
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Air Force Daily Report
In total, 72 air targets were detected and escorted by the Air Force's radio-technical wings.
The air attack of the enemy was repulsed by aviation, anti-aircraft missile forces, radio-electronic warfare units of the Air Force and mobile fire groups of the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As a result of anti-aircraft combat, 51 aerial targets were shot down: one Kh-59/Kh-69 guided air missile and 50 Shahed-131/136 attack UAVs in the Khmelnytskyi, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv regions. , Odesa, Kherson, Donetsk, Kirovohrad, Sumy and Chernihiv regions.
Another 16 enemy UAVs were lost in location - they probably fell under the influence of radio-electronic means of countermeasures. The information is being clarified.
In addition, the crossing of the state border with the Republic of Belarus in the Chernihiv region by an enemy strike drone was recorded, and another Russian UAV returned "to its homeland" - in the Belgorod region.
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The Russian Border Incursion
Ukrainian Forces make additional advances
Geolocated footage published on August 20 shows Ukrainian drones striking Russian equipment bringing pontoons to a staging area near the Seim River about 3km north of Glushkovo. Satellite imagery indicates that Ukrainian forces have destroyed at least one pontoon bridge across the Seim as of August 19 that was visible on August 17.
Some Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces seized Vishnevka (southwest of Koronevo and 14km from the international border), consistent with the Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) reporting from August 19 that tacitly acknowledged Ukrainian advances in the Vishnevka area.
Geolocated footage published on August 19 shows that Ukrainian forces have advanced westward along Sudzhanskiy Shlyakh Street (38K-030 highway) in eastern Korenevo as well as in fields northeast of Korenevo.
Russian milbloggers widely claimed on August 20 that Ukrainian forces continued mechanized assaults on the outskirts of Korenevo and that Russian forces were conducting artillery and airstrikes to contain Ukrainian advances.
Geolocated footage published on August 20 shows that Ukrainian forces have also advanced in forested areas north of Russkoye Porechnoye (northeast of Sudzha and 20km from the international border), consistent with Russian milblogger maps that depict Ukrainian advances over the entire administrative boundaries of Russkoye Porechnoye.
A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed on August 20 that Ukrainian forces have also advanced up the western outskirts of Russkaya Konopelka, just east of Sudzha.
Geolocated footage published on August 20 showing Ukrainian forces towing a captured Russian T-90M tank along the Snagost-Liubimivka road (southeast of Koreveno and 8km from the international border) indicates that Ukrainian forces continue operating well within the maximalist claimed limit of Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast.
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Ukrainian officials continued to clarify some of the objectives in the Kursk Incursion
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Aug 20 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on August 20 that Ukrainian forces advanced between 28 to 35 kilometres deep into Kursk Oblast and that they "control" 93 settlements (1,263 square kilometres)
Syrskyi stated that Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast are pressuring Russian forces to redeploy elements of unspecified units from the frontline in Ukraine to Kursk Oblast, which may impact the tempo and prospect of Russian offensive efforts in Ukraine.
Syrskyi also stated that Ukrainian forces aim to establish a buffer zone in Russian territory to prevent Russian forces from shelling Sumy Oblast and to “outpace” the efforts of the Russian forces at large. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on August 19 that the “preventative defence” of the Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast is the most effective countermeasure against Russian forces and that Ukrainian forces have largely "cleared" the Russian border area close to Sumy Oblast of Russian forces.
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TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine ratified Rome Statute - a significant step towards joining the EU
Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba believes that Ukraine has taken an essential step towards European Union membership by ratifying the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. Kuleba stated on Twitter
"Ukraine has become the 125th member of the International Criminal Court. This has been a long journey full of challenges, myths, and fears. None of them have been true. And today, we are finally there… By taking this step, Ukraine demonstrates its unwavering commitment to strengthening international justice." Kuleba said.
Kuleba also stressed that Ukraine had been effectively cooperating with the International Criminal Court to ensure comprehensive accountability for Russian atrocities committed during the Russian aggression.
"This work will now be even more effective. With the ratification of the Rome Statute, Ukraine also took another significant step toward joining the EU," the foreign minister concluded.
The obligation to ratify the Rome Statute is outlined in the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. Ratification of the statute is also a requirement for all EU member states.
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RUSSIAN WORLD
Bureaucracy continues to obstruct Russia’s response to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Aug 20 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that The Russian military command continues to complicate and bureaucratize its thus-far ineffective command and control (C2) structure for the Russian response to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast.
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov announced on August 20 that he appointed Russian Deputy Defense Minister Colonel General Yunus-Bek Yevkurov as Deputy Head of the "Coordinating Council" within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) for military and security issues in Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod oblasts and stated that Yevkurov is already currently in Kursk Oblast.
Belousov's decision to appoint Yevkurov — who heads the Russian MoD's Africa Corps and has been the face of Russian military outreach and cooperation with African countries since the dissolution of the Wagner Group in 2023 — may suggest that the Russian MoD removed Yevkurov from his position in Africa Corps, as a Kremlin-affiliated milblogger previously speculated, and that that the Russian MoD is temporarily deprioritizing defence cooperation efforts in Africa in response to the incursion into Kursk Oblast.
Belousov also tasked five members of the Coordinating Council with addressing specific issues related to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast. Belousov announced that Deputy Defense Minister Lieutenant General Andrei Bulyga is responsible for resolving logistics, transport, and assisting civilian authorities in civilian evacuations; that Deputy Defense Minister Alexei Krivoruchko is responsible for solving problems related to military-technical support; that Deputy Defense Minister Pavel Fradkov is responsible for engineering and construction; and that the Russian MoD's Main Military Medical Directorate Head Dmitry Trishkin is responsible for medical support.
Belousov also announced the creation of the Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod groupings of forces and stated that their unspecified commanders and an unspecified representative of the Russian General Staff are responsible for protecting civilians from drone strikes and other attacks.
The Russian MoD additionally created a special task force at the National Defense Control Center to monitor issues in Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod oblasts.
The National Defense Control Center's Deputy Head Lieutenant General Yuri Korsachev claimed that the center's task force has already resolved 25 issues voiced by the Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod operational headquarters, of which most requested additional drone supplies, mobile electronic warfare (EW) systems, radios, radio jammers, and all-terrain vehicles.
Belousov did not comment on how the Coordination Council officials, the National Defense Control Center's task force, and the newly-created groupings of forces will interact with the existing C2 structure that the Kremlin established when it tasked that Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) with conducting a counterterrorism operation in Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod oblasts. The increasing bureaucratization of the Coordination Council and other Russian MoD structures dedicated to defending against the incursion into Kursk Oblast will likely create additional confusion within the Russian MoD and friction among the Russian MoD, FSB, and Rosgvardia, all of which are attempting to operate in Kursk Oblast. ISW continues to assess that complex and overlapping responsibilities and seemingly ever-growing list of actors the Kremlin has tasked with responding to the Ukrainian incursion impedes Russia's ability to establish effective joint C2 structures.
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Russia resorts to sending specialist technicians to the front in Kursk as infantry
The UK Ministry of Defence in their Aug 21 Intelligence Update on Ukraine stated that According to a report by the Russian investigative outlet Vazhnyye Istorii one of the units deployed to defend against the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk oblast is a Specialised Motor Rifle Regiment formed unusually of Aerospace Forces (VKS) personnel. According to the report, the Motor Rifle Regiment was formed in May 2024 and has been subordinated to the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces.
Reportedly personnel forming the VKS-manned Motor Rifle Regiment include those previously in specialist roles such as early-warning radar operators and at Long Range Aviation Heavy Bomber regiments. Diverting personnel from these previously high priority areas likely demonstrates continuing personnel shortages. By employing them in an infantry role, they are also being misused, which could reduce Russian capability to re-take territory in Kursk oblast.
Russia continues to develop new units and recruit more personnel to sustain its mass attritional warfare approach against Ukraine. The high casualty rates that result mean that Russia needs to continuously replenish front line infantry personnel, which will almost certainly continue to limit Russia's ability to generate higher capability units.
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NEWS WORLDWIDE
New Hungarian law could make Ukrainian refugees homeless
A new law has come into force in Hungary which threatens to push thousands of Ukrainian refugees on to the streets or back to Ukraine. BBC reports.
The regulation restricts state support for Ukrainians to those who come from parts of Ukraine directly affected by the fighting caused by Russia's invasion.
Thirteen regions in Ukraine are on the list, which will be updated monthly by the Hungarian government. It is not known how many of the 31,000 Ukrainians taking shelter in Hungary will be affected by the new law.
Human rights groups say the most vulnerable are those from the Roma ethnic minority from the westernmost Transcarpathian region, who are still living in shelters which will now close.
Their situation is complicated by the fact that many are dual Ukrainian-Hungarian citizens, who have been refused help elsewhere in the European Union on the grounds they are Hungarian citizens.
The UN refugee agency said the law change will mean an estimated 2,000-3,000 refugees will "lose access to subsidised accommodation".
"Many face significant barriers in securing alternative housing due to lack of financial means but also reluctance of owners to rent," the UNHCR said. "For many, the change will result in job losses and impact school enrolment, jeopardizing the positive integration achievements obtained so far."
Under the new law, only Ukrainians whose last official address in Ukraine was in an area "directly affected by military operations" remain eligible for state support, which includes free housing and a basic monthly sum. Government decree 134 changes legislation dating back to 2022 and the start of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.
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MILITARY & TECH
Ukraine targeted a Russian S-300 system near Novoshakhtinsk
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine officially reported that on the night of August 21, a strike targeted russian S-300 surface-to-air missile system positioned near Novoshakhtinsk, Rostov region, approximately 160 km from the front line. Defense Express reports.
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