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Crisis Group sounds the alarm to prevent deadly conflict. We build support for the good governance and inclusive politics that enable societies to flourish. We engage directly with a range of conflict actors to seek and share information, and to encourage intelligent action for peace.
Our work is urgently needed as the world is confronted with both new and chronic existing conflicts, each of which has devastating humanitarian, social and economic costs. Efforts to resolve conflicts are complicated by the profound shift in geopolitics, as well as the increasing prominence of non-state actors ranging from religious militants to criminal gangs.
In this more polarized, fragmented and dangerous world, Crisis Group’s work points a way forward.
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Iran
Supreme Leader threatened retaliation against Israel after Hamas political leader killed in Tehran, as confrontations between Iran-aligned groups and Israel/U.S. rose; reformist Masoud Pezeshkian took office as new president.
Tehran vowed revenge against Israel after killing of Hamas leader. Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh killed 31 July in capital Tehran, reportedly prompting rare emergency meeting of influential Supreme National Security Council. Iran immediately blamed operation on Israel. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei same day vowed “severe punishment”, said it was Tehran’s “duty” to avenge Haniyeh’s death as it had occurred on Iranian soil, fuelling fears of Iranian-led Axis of Resistance coalition-wide retaliation – loosely or closely coordinated – against Israel/U.S. in coming days and weeks.
Axis of Resistance launched strikes at Israeli, U.S. targets. Yemeni Houthis throughout month conducted regular drone and missile strikes against vessels in Red Sea, and 19 July struck Israel’s city Tel Aviv with drone, killing one; Israel next day retaliated with strike against Hodeida port. Amid daily cross-border exchanges between Israel and Hizbollah, including 27 July rocket strike on Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and 30 July Israeli air raid killing top Hizbollah commander, Iran repeatedly pledged support for Hizbollah in case of full-blown conflict. Series of drone and rocket attacks against bases hosting U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria in second half of July broke months-long lull in targeting of U.S. facilities there; Israel in July also intercepted multiple drones seemingly launched from Iraq (see Iraq, Israel/Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen).
Iran elected first reformist president in two decades. After second round of presidential election held 5 July, reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian secured presidency with 53.6% of vote and was inaugurated 30 July. Pezeshkian’s campaign emphasised political cohesion, less restrictive social and cultural policies, enhanced economic management and improved relations with West; hardline conservatives will likely push back on his ambitions to change status quo, however.
U.S. imposed more sanctions on Iran-linked entities and individuals. U.S. 12 July designated one Iranian entity for involvement in proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; 18 July sanctioned two individuals and five entities for being associated with Houthi financing networks; and 30 July sanctioned five individuals and seven entities for facilitating Iran’s missile and drones program.
Iraq
Iran-backed groups targeted U.S. troops with drones and rockets after months-long hiatus, and Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) leader raised hopes of improved Erbil-Baghdad relationship.
Iran-backed groups, U.S. resumed tit-for-tat strikes. In first attack since March, armed drones by suspected Iran-backed groups 16 July targeted Ain al-Asad airbase housing U.S. troops in Anbar governorate; rockets 25 July again targeted base, with no U.S. casualties reported. In first known airstrike since Feb, U.S. 30 July targeted Hashd al-Shaabi base used by Iran-aligned militias in Babil governorate, killing four; Iraqi military next day denounced strike as “heinous crime” and violation of U.S.-led coalition’s mandate. Meanwhile, Tehran-aligned Islamic Resistance in Iraq 15 July reportedly carried out joint operation with Yemeni Houthis against ship in Mediterranean, and 19, 21 July claimed unconfirmed strikes on Israeli cities Haifa and Eilat.
Islamic State (ISIS) continued attacks, U.S. and Iraq discussed troop drawdown. Clashes between govt forces and ISIS 13 July killed four police officers in Khan Bani Saad town, Diyala governorate; U.S. Central Command 17 July noted uptick in ISIS attack in Iraq and Syria as part of group’s efforts to “reconstitute” capabilities. Iraqi and U.S. officials 22-23 July held second round of Joint Security Cooperation Dialogue to discuss transition from U.S.-led Global Coalition against Islamic State (ISIS) to bilateral security relationship.
KDP submitted candidates for local elections and KDP leader visited Baghdad. Following latest of several extensions of registration deadline for candidates, KDP 18 July said it had submitted candidate list, removing last hurdles for Kurdistan legislative elections in Oct. Meanwhile, KDP leader Masoud Barzani 3 July visited capital Baghdad for first time in six years, said talks with PM al-Sudani represented “real breakthrough” in relations.
Türkiye operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) continued in north. Turkish President Erdoğan 13 July claimed ground operation Claw-Lock against PKK in north would end “very soon”, hailing it as success. Meanwhile, clashes between PKK and Turkish forces early July reportedly caused evacuation of seven villages in Duhok governorate. Türkiye also continued anti-PKK strikes. Notably, Turkish Defence Ministry 30 July announced “neutralising” 13 PKK members in Gara and Haftanin regions.
Israel/Palestine
Deadly Golan Heights rocket strike blamed on Hizbollah and assassination of Hamas political leader in Tehran risked further escalation; Israel continued assault on Gaza Strip and approved largest land seizure in West Bank since Oslo accords.
Deadly strike on Beirut and assassination of Hamas leader in Tehran risk igniting wider conflict. Rocket strike 27 July killed 12, including children, and injured over 40 in Israeli-occupied Golan Heights village of Majdal Shams. Israel and U.S. blamed attack on Hizbollah, which denied responsibility. In response, Israeli air raid 30 July killed top Hizbollah commander Fuad Shukr and five civilians in Lebanese capital Beirut, while injuring at least 74 others; Hizbollah vowed retaliation. Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh killed 31 July in Iranian capital Tehran. Hamas and Iran blamed operation on Israel as Hamas said killing would “take the battle to new dimensions” and Iran vowed “harsh punishment”. Qatar same day questioned potential for ceasefire negotiations – which had stalled earlier in month – following assassination. Earlier in month, Yemeni Houthi drone 19 July killed one and injured at least ten in Tel Aviv; in response, Israel next day struck Yemeni port of Hodeida, killing nine and injuring 87 (see Iran, Lebanon, Yemen).
Israel conducted major operations in Gaza. Israel continued aerial bombardment and major assaults on Khan Younis, Rafah and Gaza City. Notably, Israeli attack on humanitarian safe zone al-Masawi 13 July reportedly killed up to 100; week-long incursion into Khan Younis 22-30 July reportedly killed at least 255 and injured over 300. Operations in July killed over 1,500 Palestinians, bringing death toll since 7 Oct to over 39,400; medical journal The Lancet 5 July found total Gaza death toll (including deaths due to lack of food, healthcare and sanitation systems) could exceed 186,000. UNRWA head 28 July said only 14% of Gaza’s territory was not under Israeli evacuation orders.
Israel approved largest land seizure in West Bank in decades. Israeli NGO Peace Now 3 July reported Israel late June approved seizure of 12.7 square km in Jordan Valley, marking largest land annexation since 1993 Oslo accords. Meanwhile, settler violence, raids and airstrikes continued in West Bank, killing at least 37 Palestinians and bringing death toll since 7 Oct to at least 576.
Lebanon
Risk of all-out war with Israel rose sharply after rocket strike killed a dozen youths in Golan Heights and Israel’s military killed top Hizbollah commander in retaliation; double executive vacuum and economic crisis persisted.
Hizbollah and Israel expanded range of cross-border strikes. Rocket strike 27 July killed 12, including children, in Israeli-occupied Golan Heights village of Majdal Shams. Israel and U.S. immediately blamed Hizbollah for attack, while Hizbollah denied responsibility. Israeli PM Netanyahu same day warned that Hizbollah would “pay a heavy price”, while U.S. diplomats reportedly urged Tel Aviv to exercise restraint to avoid full-blown conflict. Israeli air raid 30 July killed top Hizbollah commander Fuad Shukr and five civilians in Lebanese capital Beirut, while injuring at least 74 others; Hizbollah could retaliate severely, especially in light of Hamas political head Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Iran hours later (see Israel/Palestine). Earlier in July, Israel continued lethal aerial bombing campaigns across southern Lebanon, striking near cities of Saida and Tyre in south and Baalbek in east, while Hizbollah upheld trend of retaliating severely. Notably, Israeli drone strike 3 July killed Hizbollah commander Mohammed Naame Nasser near Tyre; Hizbollah 3-4 July responded by launching around 300 rockets into northern Israel. Hizbollah Sec Gen Hassan Nasrallah 17 July said cross-border attacks would hit new places in Israel after Israeli strikes 15-16 July killed eight civilians in Lebanon, including three children. Hizbollah 20 July for first time launched rockets at Israeli kibbutz Dafna in retaliation of same-day Israeli drone strike that injured civilians in Burj al-Muluk village.
Political deadlock and economic crisis persisted. Double executive vacuum with no president and only caretaker govt persisted as leaders made no serious efforts to end political deadlock. Economic crisis continued without progress on International Monetary Fund’s conditions to unlock financial rescue package. Central Bank governor Wassim Mansouri early July travelled to U.S. capital Washington, D.C. to lobby U.S. officials not to place Lebanon on Financial Action Task Force’s “grey list” of countries insufficiently committed to combating money laundering and terrorism financing; final decision expected in Oct.
Libya
Rival assemblies agreed on roadmap for unity govt, although tensions remained amid lack of budget compromise; UN human rights chief criticised rise in detentions and disappearances.
Rival authorities agreed on forming unity govt and organising elections. Around 130 members from east-based House of Representatives (HoR) and Tripoli-based High State Council (HSC) 18 July met in Egyptian capital Cairo and announced they agreed on forming unity govt and organising legislative and presidential elections. Doubts persisted, however, over whether political deadlock had actually been broken as it remained unclear whether HSC as a whole had sincerely agreed to roadmap or whether HoR would take process forward in absence of UN endorsement. Meanwhile, selection procedures for potential new govt and election laws remained in limbo.
Budget deadlock continued despite attempts at compromise. HoR Speaker Aguila Saleh 7 July met Central Bank Governor Sadiq al-Kabir to discuss steps to unify budget. HoR 10 July approved additional budget of $18.3bn to finance country’s east-based institutions; HSC next day rejected budget, criticising unilateral approach and large size of additional funds.
International actors criticised arbitrary arrests and disappearances. UN human rights chief Volker Türk 9 July lamented stalled political process and deteriorating human rights situation, highlighting “escalation in arbitrary arrests and detentions, enforced disappearances”, especially of civil society activists and political opposition. Unidentified armed men 8 July abducted political activist Moatassim al-Areebi in Misrata city, releasing him 11 July after UN and U.S. called for his release. Authorities 11 July detained journalist Ahmed al-Sanussi, who reported on allegations of govt corruption, in capital Tripoli; police 14 July released Sanussi after UN, EU and others criticised arrest.
In other important developments. Amid Italian seizures in June of Russian shipment of Chinese-made drones headed to eastern port of Benghazi in violation of arms embargo, U.S. military delegation 16-18 July visited PM Dabaiba in Tripoli and representatives of eastern commander Khalifa Haftar to discuss unification of military institutions. Court 28 July sentenced 12 officials to prison terms between nine and 27 years for culpability in Sept 2023 dam collapses amid floods in Derna city that killed over 5,000.
Oman
Islamic State claimed killing several Shia worshippers in unprecedented attack in sultanate.
Gunmen 15 July carried out shooting in Shia mosque in capital Muscat’s Wadi al-Kabir neighbourhood, killing at least six people including police officer, injuring nearly 30 and briefly holding others hostage. Police shot all three assailants dead. Islamic State (ISIS) claimed responsibility, marking group’s first-ever attack in normally calm Gulf Arab state where significant Sunni, Shia, and Ebadi Muslim communities reside.
Saudi Arabia
Riyadh facilitated de-escalation of banking dispute between Yemeni govt and Houthis after latter threatened to renew cross-border attacks; Crown Prince congratulated Iran’s new president.
Houthis threatened to resume cross-border attacks over banking restrictions. Houthis around 7 July accused Saudi Arabia of being behind Yemeni govt’s newly-imposed ban on commercial banks in Houthi-controlled areas, threatening to resume cross-border attacks if they were not overturned (see Yemen); Riyadh reportedly facilitated 22 July agreement between Yemeni govt and Houthis to lift tit-for-tat banking restrictions.
Riyadh indicated willingness to strengthen relations with new Iranian govt. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman 6 July congratulated reformist Masoud Pezeshkian on election as Iran’s president and affirmed “keenness on developing and deepening the relations” between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Syria
Anti-Türkiye protests turned deadly in north west, where demonstrations against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) continued; Iran-backed groups resumed attacks on U.S. bases.
In north west, anti-Türkiye protests turned deadly and protests against HTS continued. Following late-June attacks on Syrians in Türkiye, large-scale anti-Türkiye protests 1 July erupted in north west, with protesters removing Turkish flags and attacking Turkish military vehicles, bases, and checkpoints; Turkish forces killed seven protesters in Afrin city and one in Jarabulus city, both in Aleppo province. Amid widespread internet and communications’ service disruptions, Türkiye closed border for several days as military police of Türkiye-aligned Syrian Interim Govt 3 July launched arrest campaign (see Türkiye). Meanwhile, protests demanding resignation of HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani and prison reform continued in Idlib and Aleppo provinces; notably, clashes 5 July erupted in Binnish town as HTS cracked down on protesters after they allegedly injured police officer. Protest movement, local community leaders and HTS-dominated Salvation Govt 17 July reached agreement to release some detainees and suspend protests in Binnish for three months; protests continued elsewhere.
Iran-backed groups and U.S. carried out tit-for-tat strikes. Iranian-backed groups 25-26 July fired missiles toward U.S. base at Conoco gas field, prompting U.S. to strike locations of Iranian-backed groups east of Deir ez-Zor city with heavy artillery shells. Meanwhile, Israel continued strikes, notably killing govt-affiliated business tycoon and militia leader Baraa al-Qaterji and his driver on Damascus-Beirut highway 15 July.
ISIS attacks persisted. U.S. Central Command 17 July noted uptick in Islamic State (ISIS) attacks in Syria and Iraq as part of group’s attempt to “reconstitute” capabilities. Notably, ISIS 3 July killed two shepherds and six govt forces searching for them in Raqqa province.
In other important developments. Clashes between local group Thuwar Kanaker and govt forces 2 July erupted in Kanaker town, Rif Dimashq province after latter arrested former commander of al-Furqan Brigades; govt forces same day shelled town, killing five civilians; parties next day reached ceasefire. Kurdish authorities in north east 17 July granted general amnesty to people “whose hands are not stained with blood of Syrians”, leading to release of hundreds of prisoners. Türkiye continued attacks on Kurdish militants (see Türkiye).
Yemen
Regional tensions remained elevated as Israel launched retaliatory airstrikes on Hodeida port after Houthi drone killed Israeli in Tel Aviv; govt and Houthis agreed on de-escalatory measures.
Israel struck oil and energy infrastructure in Hodeida after Houthi drone targeted Tel Aviv. Houthi drone 19 July struck Israeli city Tel Aviv, killing one Israeli and injuring at least ten. In response, Israeli airstrikes next day struck oil and energy infrastructure in Hodeida port, killing nine and injuring 87. UN Sec Gen Guterres 21 July warned of further regional escalation, calling for “utmost restraint” while Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi same day threatened “more attacks targeting Israel” (see Israel-Palestine, Iran). Meanwhile, Houthis in July stepped up attacks on shipping in Red, Arabian and Mediterranean seas, and Indian Ocean; notably, Houthis 1 July claimed four operations against U.S., UK, and Israeli ships; 15 July claimed attacks targeting three ships in Red Sea and Mediterranean.
Govt and Houthis agreed to de-escalate tit-for-tat banking restrictions. Govt-controlled Central Bank 7 July revoked licenses of six commercial banks for failing to relocate offices from Houthi-controlled capital Sana’a to Aden. Houthis around same day accused Saudi Arabia of being behind govt-imposed banking restrictions, threatening to resume cross-border attacks if they were not overturned (see Saudi Arabia). Govt and Houthis 22 July informed UN envoy Hans Grundberg that they had agreed to lift tit-for-tat banking restrictions and expand national airline Yemenia flights.
Parties made progress on prisoners’ swap and UN renewed monitoring mission. Govt and Houthi representatives 6 July attended meeting of Supervisory Committee on the Implementation of the Detainees’ Agreement in Omani capital Muscat and reached “breakthrough” preliminary agreement on release of govt-aligned political leader Mohamed Qahtan, who has been detained by Houthis since 2015. UN Security Council 8 July extended mandate of UN Mission to support the Hudaydah Agreement (UNHMA) until 14 July 2025; mission plays vital role in monitoring Hodeida port and implementation of Houthi-govt ceasefire and could potentially facilitate de-escalation in Red Sea.
Humanitarian situation continued deteriorating. World Food Programme 1 July said “severe food deprivation” had reached unprecedented levels in both northern and southern Yemen since May.
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