Newsweek: Ukraine War Map Looks 'Grim' for Zelensky as Russian Offensive Accelerates

02 December 2024

Newsweek: Ukraine War Map Looks 'Grim' for Zelensky as Russian Offensive Accelerates

Ukraine has endured a tough three months in which Russian forces made gains across the front, which are likely continue over winter, a military analyst has said.
"The trend is very worrying, and there's no reason to expect the situation to calm down in December either," Emil Kastehelmi, from the Finnish-based Black Bird Group, told Newsweek.
In an X, formerly Twitter, thread, the OSINT analyst said that, in the three months to December, Moscow's troops had captured around 617 square miles in Ukraine and 190 in Russia's Kursk oblast, where Ukrainian forces had staged an incursion but where they have lost the western flank, as well as positions in the Donbas region.
The post said that Russia's heavy losses have not stopped its advances accelerating and "this Fall has been grim for Ukraine." Newsweek has contacted the Ukrainian and Russian defense ministries for comment.

Russia's offensive has concentrated around the Donetsk logistics hub of Pokrovsk as well as Kurakhove. Moscow captured Vuhledar in October and advanced quickly to Velyka Novosilka.

"The Ukrainians have had issues in stabilizing the front here for a long time, and in November, the pace of Russian advance there only quickened even from September and October," Kastehelmi told Newsweek.

"If we assume that the Russians have enough manpower and equipment for the coming months, it's likely they will continue attacking aggressively. There are no immediate indications that the Russians would run out of steam in the near future," Kastehelmi said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv may require diplomatic means to liberate some Russian-held territories as he admitted that his army "lacks the strength to do that."
"We do have to find diplomatic solutions," Zelensky told Japanese news agency Kyodo News. This was a shift in Kyiv's prior rhetoric that full territorial integrity was central to any peace deal, amid concerns about what Donald Trump as U.S. president will mean for American aid.

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There have been successes for Ukraine, which has held the Toretsk-Chasiv Yar-Siversk direction, denying the Russians further advances in the north of Donetsk. There had been little change in the front further south, in Zaporizhzhia. Kyiv has also succeeded in inflicting heavy losses.

But Kastehelmi said that Russian forces are likely to continue their offensive in the Pokrovsk-Velyka Novosilka direction and could soon capture a further 270 square miles of territory.

"It's also likely they will try to breach the Ukrainian defenses in Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, as that would enable them to advance toward the most important towns still left in Donetsk, first of those being Kostiantynivka," he said.

"I believe the most action will happen in the southern direction, though, and we might see the battle of Pokrovsk beginning in the coming months," Kastehelmi added, noting that Ukraine has an ongoing problem with manpower shortages.