Friday, July 22, 2022

4 Fed Failures: Analysis, forecasts, response, and communication

 Today

Mohamed A. El-Erian: The Fed is failing in four ways


Global economy watchers and market participants will be paying a lot of attention next week to how the Federal Reserve describes the U.S. economic outlook, to the magnitude of its interest rate increase and whether it changes the pace of its balance-sheet contraction. Yet for the well-being of the U.S. and global economy, the answer to these questions is less important than whether the Fed shows seriousness about fixing four failures that continue to fuel one of the worse policy mistakes in decades: Failures of analysis, forecasts, response and communication.

Let us first dispose with what seems to interest economists and markets the most right now.

On the economic outlook, the Fed will acknowledge that, once again, inflation has proved to be higher and more stubborn than projected and that, despite some signs of weakness, the U.S. economy remains in a “good place.” With that, it is likely to again lift rates by 75 basis points and leave unchanged its previously announced plans for quantitative tightening.

This will come as a relief to those worried that the Fed, playing a desperate game of catch-up, would raise rates by 100 basis points and worsen what is already an uncomfortably high risk of tipping the U.S. economy into recession. Yet such relief will again prove fleeting unless the Fed also regains policy credibility by addressing its four persistent failures.


The first is one of analysis. The Fed has yet to make the comprehensive analytical shift from a world dominated for years by deficient aggregate demand to the current one where deficient aggregate supply plays an important role. Its monetary policy approach is either still formally governed by the “new framework” adopted last year that is no longer suitable and should be publicly discarded or governed by no framework at all, thereby leaving the U.S. and global economy without a much-needed anchor. The result of this is a central bank that continuously struggles to properly inform and influence economic agents, that consistently lags behind markets rather than leads them, and that could easily fall prey to the even more catastrophic policy mistake of returning to the 1970s trap of “stop-go” policies.The longer the Fed resists the overdue analytical pivot, the more its inflation and growth forecasts will continue to miss the mark, exacerbating the second failure. For the last few quarters, such projections have been quickly and correctly dismissed as unrealistic by a wide range of economists, market analysts and, even more unusual, former Fed officials. This matters even more now that the U.S. economy is showing signs not just of weakening but also of flirting with a recession.





mohamed el erian from m.youtube.com
Duration: 5:25
Posted: 10 hours ago

BANNON VERDICT

 After months of delays.    

Steve Bannon convicted of contempt for defying 1/6 subpoena

29 minutes ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — Steve Bannon, a longtime ally of former President Donald Trump was convicted on Friday of contempt charges for defying a congressional subpoena from the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol.

Bannon, 68, was convicted after a four-day trial in federal court in Washington on two counts: one for refusing to appear for a deposition and the other for refusing to provide documents in response to the committee’s subpoena. The jury of 8 men and 4 women deliberated just under three hours.

He faces up to two years in federal prison when he’s sentenced on Oct. 21. Each count carries a minimum sentence of 30 days in jail.

The Mesmerizing Eyes of Mormon Prophet Joseph Smith

 It's a long story with a lot of history, but it starts like this -

RNS) — Marooned in their homes, many Americans made the best of the early days of the pandemic by sorting through old boxes of family artifacts. One Saturday morning in March 2020, Dan Larsen and his wife were doing just that when they discovered the world’s only verified photographic image of Mormonism’s founder, Joseph Smith Jr.

Larsen, 79, is a great-great-grandson of Smith, who was killed by a mob near Nauvoo, Illinois, in 1844. Among the effects passed down to Larsen was a pocket watch that bore the initials of his great-grandfather Joseph Smith III, the prophet’s oldest son and founder of the Reorganized Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints, now called Community of Christ. There was also a second object, a locket that resembled a pocket watch.

When Larsen inherited the locket shortly before his mother’s death in 1992, its finial was bent and he was not able to open it, so he put it away for safekeeping.

Mormon founder Joseph Smith’s photo discovered by descendant after nearly 180 years

A great-great-grandson of Joseph Smith Jr. found the Mormon prophet’s photo tucked inside a locket passed down for generations.

Jana Riess

Senior columnist Jana Riess is the author of many books, including "The Prayer Wheel" (Random House/Convergent, 2018) and "The Next Mormons: How Millennials Are Changing the LDS Church" (Oxford University Press, 2019). She has a PhD in American religious history from Columbia University.

All Stories by Jana Riess

Mormon founder Joseph Smith’s photo discovered by descendant after nearly 180 years

By Jana Riess — July 21, 2022
(RNS) — A great-great-grandson of Joseph Smith Jr. found the Mormon prophet’s photo tucked inside a locket passed down for generations.

Oh, now I get it: Purging the word ‘Mormon’ is a bid for the mainstream

By Jana Riess — July 14, 2022
(RNS) — I’m still not a fan of the attempt to purge ‘Mormon’ from our vocabularies, but it makes sense as a piece of the larger assimilation puzzle.

Hulu’s ‘Mormon No More’ rings true

By Jana Riess — July 1, 2022
(RNS) — While not perfect, 'Mormon No More' is a heartfelt docuseries that skillfully centers the painful experiences of LGBTQ Latter-day Saints.

Mormons now look liberal on abortion — by not changing

By Jana Riess — June 29, 2022
(RNS) — The GOP has swung so far to the right that Mormons’ nuanced abortion stance, once commonly accepted by fellow conservatives, now looks liberal by comparison.

Jake Hoffman's Queen Creek Troll Farm Back in The News

 Here's a report yesterday from The Verge https://www.theverge.com/2022/7/21/23273007/kari-lake-arizona-governor-jake-hoffman-karrin-taylor-robson-rally-forge-pac - over the past 12 months his political advert firm 1TEN has received $2.1 million to build websites, design digital ads, and purchase cable and broadcasting advert spots to boost Trump-endorsed candidate Kari Lake in her campaign against Mesa real estate developer Katrin Taylor Robson for GOP candidacy for Governor of Arizona.

Mysterious pro-Kari Lake PAC paid

fake elector $2 million for ads and promotion

Fake elector Jake Hoffman has been accused of running a Turning Point Action troll farm


Thursday, July 21, 2022

Kissinger: The Importance of Understanding The Permanence of China

 Keep in mind

Permanence of china kissinger from www.bloomberg.com
Duration: 4:26
Posted: 2 days ago

Kissinger: China is undergoing a tremendous process of domestic change. President Xi Jinping laid out two goals called the “Two 100s”—the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party and the 100th anniversary of the Communist state. The first will be in 2021; the second in 2049. By the time they reach the second 100, they will be, by their own estimate, the equal of any other country in the contemporary world, and will, by their reckoning, be able to insist on absolute material and strategic equality, including with America. Some Chinese strategists are in effect saying, “If we were in the American position, would we not at least consider preventing another country from reaching equality?” So that is a latent source of tension.

The Chinese internal discussions offer at least two answers. The hard-liners will say, “The Americans are visibly declining. We will win. We can afford to be tough and look at the world with sort of Cold War-ish attitudes.” The other position—apparently that of President Xi—is that confrontation is too dangerous: Cold War with the U.S. would keep China from reaching its economic goals. A conflict with modern weapons might exceed the devastation of the First World War and leave no winners. Hence in the modern period, adversarial countries must become partners and cooperate on a win-win basis.

Return of Taiwan from Japanese rule to China commemorated

WHO GOT STUNG???

 

Supposed Terrorist Gets 20 Years In Prison For Uploading A Bomb-Making Video An FBI Agent Made For Him

from the continuing-the-FBI's-proud-post-2001-tradition dept

The FBI’s shift from law enforcement to counter-terrorism began shortly after the 9/11 attacks in 2001, but really took off about a decade later, when it got into the business of radicalizing internet randos to turn them into “terrorists” worth hitting with material support charges.

While the FBI continued to pretend it was making the world safer, it racked up plenty of criticism for its tactics. A lot of what FBI undercover agents did in far too many terrorist support cases looked an awful lot like entrapment. FBI informants pushed ISIS-curious people towards acts of violence. And they went further than just offering verbal support. The FBI literally materially supported these supposed “terrorists,” buying them supplies and weapons, handing them cash to spend on necessities, and writing scripts/operating cameras for ISIS allegiance videos.

Here’s another one for the FBI’s dubious anti-terrorism rap sheet: another person who found himself communicating with fake terrorists (undercover agents) who nudged him down the path towards terrorist acts. And when that nudging wasn’t producing results quickly enough for the FBI, the undercover agent basically did all the terrorist homework for the suspect, giving him enough proverbial rope to allow the FBI to hang him.

Here’s the end result of the FBI’s questionable efforts:

United States Attorney Roger Handberg announces today that a Florida man was sentenced today to 20 years in federal prison, followed by 15 years of supervised release, for attempting to provide material support to the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, also known as ISIS, a designated foreign terrorist organization.

According to the DOJ’s press release, Romeo Langhorne “pledged allegiance to ISIS in 2014.” Then nothing much happened for almost a half-decade. In late 2018/early 2019, Langhorne appeared to have rediscovered his appreciation for ISIS and began posting pro-ISIS content to social media platforms and hanging out in pro-ISIS chatrooms.

That’s when the FBI inserted one of its own into the mix.

In February 2019, Langhorne began communicating with an undercover employee (UCE) of the FBI who was posing as someone working on behalf of ISIS. Langhorne told the UCE about his plans to create and disseminate an instructional video on making TATP and sought the UCE’s assistance in creating the video.

Langhorne got way more than “assistance.” All Langhorne contributed to the video were ideas. It was the undercover employee who actually put together the video.

During the summer of 2019, Langhorne sent multiple messages to the UCE for assistance with creating a Nasheed, which is a form of Islamic vocal music. Langhorne stated he wanted the Nasheed to include a particular recording of an ISIS member yelling “Allahu Akbar” while breaking out of prison, as well as a clip of children saying, “kill them all.” Langhorne explained that he wanted the Nasheed “to encourage justified retaliation” against the United States for its role in killing Muslims.

The FBI produced a video in accordance with Langhorne’s instructions, but – unbeknownst to Langhorne – it featured an inert chemical formula for TATP that would not produce an explosion. In November 2019, the UCE provided versions of the TATP video to Langhorne, and Langhorne distributed the video by uploading it to a video-sharing website.

Who knows what would have happened if the FBI agent had simply refused to make the video? What if the agent had pushed back on Langhorne’s demands by insisting Langhorne do the work himself? Would the video ever have been made? Or what if — and hear me out — the UCE had pointed out to Langhorne that what he was asking for was not only illegal but would make him culpable for any violent acts stemming from the video’s distribution? Maybe simply pointing out the legal ramifications or suggesting extremists (not just Muslim extremists) would use the information to harm innocent people would have forced Langhorne to reconsider his love for ISIS — something that seemed largely limited to being obnoxious on the internet.

Sure, it’s foolhardy to play armchair quarterback. But one wonders if FBI informants and undercover operatives ever try to nudge people off the path to terrorism, rather than propel them forward towards their inevitable arrest.

And the fact that the FBI did all the production work on the video makes this statement from an FBI official unintentionally hilarious.

“The willingness of this dangerous individual to go to great lengths to harm innocent Americans was always very real,” said FBI Jacksonville Special Agent in Charge Sherri E. Onks, “but through hard work and determination, the FBI Jacksonville Joint Terrorism Task Force successfully disrupted his plan early on, and averted a threat to the safety of our community.”

It was the FBI UCE that went “to great lengths.” Langhorne hung out in chat rooms and sent text messages to the undercover agent every time a new video idea occurred to him. But it doesn’t look like he went to any lengths, much less “great” ones, to “harm innocent Americans.” He talked a lot but when it came to action, he couldn’t even be bothered to engage in the actual production of the video. And someone who takes five years off from engaging in pro-ISIS antics is hardly the sort of monomaniacal threat he’s being portrayed as by FBI personnel willing to congratulate themselves for putting Langhorne on a leash and walking him into an arrest.

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