Monday, October 31, 2022

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markets.businessinsider.com

The odds of a soft landing are 'meager' and recent rallies in the stock market haven't been supported by fundamentals, Mohamed El-Erian says

Jennifer Sor
4 - 5 minutes 

The odds of a soft landing of the economy at this point are "meager," and recent rallies in the stock market haven't been supported by fundamentals, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian.

"Is there some possibility of a soft-landing? Yes, but it is meager," the chief economic adviser of Allianz said in an interview with CNBC on Monday. "And for a soft-landing to have happened, the Fed should have started moving a year ago." 

El-Erian has been a loud critic of the Federal Reserve's delayed response in fighting inflation, warning the central bank's belated rate hikes have raised the odds of a "damaging recession." In his view, a downturn is still avoidable–and wouldn't be as bad as 2008—but the pace of interest rate hikes required to bring down sky-high inflation is making risks "uncomfortably high" that the Fed will bring the economy to a screeching halt, he said. 

Yet, that outlook doesn't seem to be reflected in the stock market, which rallied last week after Fed officials began to soften their tone on future policy moves. The rally came alongside otherwise dismal news from US companies that reported earnings last week, with large tech companies mostly missing estimates and sparking fears of broad headwinds to future profitability. 

But El-Erian believes investors are wrong to hope for a pivot at this point, and the recent rallies have only been spurred by prospects of greater liquidity rather than improving economic data, El-Erian said. Prices clocked in well-above the Fed's 2% inflation target in September, and core inflation still showed signs of accelerating, which means the Fed could risk stagflation if they let up on monetary tightening now, he said. 

"This is a market that repeatedly falls in love with liquidity and therefore rallies. But the sustainability of those rallies is only there if you get fundamentals improving," El-Erian added. "So far, fundamentals haven't validated it, and that's why people are worried we're going to test the lows yet again." 

El-Erian urged the central bank to keep up its tightening regime to avoid inflation expectations becoming entrenched. 

"He's in a bit a bind because on the one hand, I think, he's inclined to validate the market expectation that we are having a slowdown in the rate hikes," El-Erian said, "On the other hand, if he does that and financial conditions continue to loosen, then that causes a problem on the inflation front."

Nouriel Roubini: a new Great Depression is coming - New Statesman

www.newstatesman.com › 2022/10 › no...
4 days ago · The economist who predicted the 2008 crash warns that a combination of uncontrolled inflation and ballooning debt will push the world ...
 

 
www.youtube.com › watch
Video for El Erian
Duration: 4:18
Posted: 3 hours ago
Media posted by Mohamed A. El-Erian
One of the links from this morning's conversation on @SquawkCNBC with @andrewrsorkin -- on the upcoming #FederalReserve meeting, the outlook for the #economy, recession risk, and market developments. www.cnbc.com/video/2… #econtwitter #markets @cnbc
Twitter • 28 minutes ago
Media posted by Mohamed A. El-Erian
Another disappointing #Eurozone inflation number...and one that constitutes an upside surprise for #markets: 10.7% #inflation is ... A record print; Above the consensus market forecast; and Significantly higher than the prior print of 10.0%. All this at a time of slowing growth.
Twitter • 5 hours ago
Last week's impressive equity rally in the midst of disappointing corporate earnings was a reminder that, for #markets, it’s about the Fed/liquidity. The loosening of financial conditions that came with that puts the Fed in a bind, adding to the trilemma complexity More to follow
Twitter • 4 hours ago

Stocks slip on Monday as market closes out huge October comeback - CNBC

www.cnbc.com › 2022/10/30 › stock-ma...
9 minutes ago · Chicago PMI slips in October, hits lowest level since 2020. The Chicago purchasing managers' index, a measure of economic health in the ... 

Chicago PMI in the United States averaged 54.88 points from 1967 until 2022, reaching an all time high of 81 points in November of 1973 and a record low of 20.70 points in June of 1980. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Chicago PMI - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Chicago PMI - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on October of 2022.

United States Chicago PMI

The Chicago PMI in the United States decreased to 45.20 points in October from 45.70 points in September of 2022. It is the lowest reading since June of 2020, below market forecasts of 47. source: Institute for Supply Management 

 

 

News Stream
Chicago PMI Contracts Sharply
The Chicago PMI, measuring the performance of business activity in the Chicago region of the US fell sharply to 45.7 in September of 2022 from 52.2 in the prior month, largely missing market forecasts of 51.8. It was the first contraction since the start of the pandemic took its toll in Chicago’s ec... more
2022-09-30
Chicago PMI Remains Close to 2-Year Low
The Chicago PMI in the United States was at 52.2 in August of 2022, remaining relatively unchanged from the 23-month low of 52.1 hit in the prior month and broadly in line with market estimates of 52.
2022-08-31
Chicago Business Barometer Drops to Nearly Two-Year Low
The Chicago PMI in the United States decreased to 51.1 points in July of 2022 from 56.0 points in June and missing market forecasts of 55. It was the lowest reading since August of 2020, suggesting a slowdown in economic activity.
2022-07-29



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FOMO: The Young & The Reckless

> Identifying the operators of darknet platforms that have gone defunct for several years isn't uncommon, as cybercrime investigators work on these cases for extended periods.
www.bleepingcomputer.com

Student arrested for running one of Germany's largest dark web markets

Bill Toulas
3 minutes

Police arresting a cybercriminal

Germany's Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) has arrested a 22-year-old student in Bavaria, who is suspected of being the administrator of 'Deutschland im Deep Web' (DiDW), one of the largest darknet markets in the country.

The platform had already gone offline in March 2022, with 16,000 registered users, 28,000 posts, and 72 high-volume sellers of prohibited goods, including weapons and drugs.

The suspect now faces criminal charges for operating an illicit trading platform, which incurs up to ten years of imprisonment.

BKA's seizure banner on DiDW3 domain
BKA's seizure banner on DiDW3 last active domain

Deutschland im Deep Web history

The original DiDW platform was launched in 2013 as a forum to discuss IT security and anonymization. At its peak in 2017, it reached 23,000 registered users and 6 million monthly hits.

However, the site was also used for selling illegal items such as weapons and drugs, using an escrow system for payments to protect members from fraudulent listings. This essentially made DiDW a darknet market under the guise of a forum.

BKA's announcement of the arrest mentions a characteristic example of a Munich shooter in 2016 who used the platform at the time to procure the murder weapon and ammunition.

In 2017, soon after that incident, the website was shut down by law enforcement, and its operator was arrested and sentenced to seven years in prison.

In 2018, two new versions of the platform appeared on the dark web, using the motto "No control, everything allowed," implying the new operators no longer cared about masking illegal activities on the site.

This second iteration of DiDW shut down on its own in 2019 without giving any reason, and only ten days later, a third version of the site appeared online as the official successor of the darknet market brand.

Eventually, after five years of investigation, the federal police managed to identify the alleged admin of the third version of DiDW, arresting him on October 25, 2022.

Identifying the operators of darknet platforms that have gone defunct for several years isn't uncommon, as cybercrime investigators work on these cases for extended periods.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Department of Justice arraigned a 34-year-old hacker suspected of operating the darknet market 'The Real Deal,' which shut down back in November 2016.

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Cultivating Cyber InSecurity: One Treat + More Tricks

FIRST The Treat (Today only)

Latest Articles

 

www.bleepingcomputer.com

New Azov data wiper tries to frame researchers and BleepingComputer

Lawrence Abrams
9 - 11 minutes

Threat actor smiling with an evil grin

"A new and destructive 'Azov Ransomware' data wiper is being heavily distributed through pirated software, key generators, and adware bundles, trying to frame well-known security researchers by claiming they are behind the attack.

The Azov Ransomware falsely claims to have been created by a well-known security researcher named Hasherazade and lists other researchers, myself, and BleepingComputer, as involved in the operation.

The ransom note, named RESTORE_FILES.txt, says that devices are encrypted in protest of the seizure of Crimea and because Western countries are not doing enough to help Ukraine in their war against Russia.



Azov Ransomware' data wiper note to victims
Source: BleepingComputer

The ransom note tells victims to contact me, BleepingComputer, MalwareHunterTeam, Michael Gillespie, or Vitali Kremez on Twitter to recover files, falsely implying that we are part of the ransomware operation.

To be clear, those listed in the ransom note are not associated with this ransomware and are being framed by the threat actor. Therefore, we, unfortunately, do not have the decryption keys and cannot help.

Furthermore, as there is no way to contact the threat actors to pay a ransom, this malware should be treated as a destructive data wiper rather than ransomware.

Unfortunately, victims have already started contacting BleepingComputer for help recovering files, and as much as we would like to help, there is no known way of helping at this time.

While the threat actors claim they are doing this in support of Ukraine, BleepingComputer knows of a Ukrainian organization affected by this data wiper.

The wiper takes its name from the Ukrainian Azov Regiment, a controversial military force that allegedly associated with neo-Nazi ideology in the past.

This is not the first time threat actors attempted to frame security researchers for their malware.

In 2016, the Apocalypse ransomware operation renamed one of its variants to Fabiansomware after Fabian Wosar. In 2020, one of the Maze ransomware developers released an MBR Locker, claiming it was made by Vital Kremez.

What we know about the Azov wiper

In a new campaign started over the past two days, a threat actor appears to have purchased 'installs' through the SmokeLoader malware botnet to deliver the new destructive Azov wiper.

This thing started to spread about 2 weeks ago already.
One of the spreading methods (or the only one?) of this shit looks someone just bought installs in the malware distribution networks / botnets that are used to spread some stealers, the STOP/Djvu ransomware, etc.

(1/X) https://t.co/ndcDyoHDTv pic.twitter.com/3Y4vw1LlZq

— MalwareHunterTeam (@malwrhunterteam) October 30, 2022

SmokeLoader is a malware botnet that other threat actors can rent or buy 'installs,' to distribute their own malware on infected devices. SmokeLoader is commonly distributed through websites pushing fake software cracks, game modifications, cheats, and key generators.

Over the past few days, SmokeLoader has begun delivering the new 'Azov Ransomware,' along with other malware [VirusTotal], such as the RedLine Stealer information-stealing malware and the STOP ransomware.

BleepingComputer is aware of victims being double-encrypted, first with Azov and then with STOP ransomware, as SmokeLoader delivered both simultaneously.

The initial ransomware executable [VirusTotal] will be dropped under a random file in the Windows temp (%Temp%) folder and executed.

Once launched, the wiper will copy C:\Windows\System32\msiexec.exe to C:\ProgramData\rdpclient.exe [VirusTotal] and patch it to also contain the Azov wiper. Additionally, the wiper may be configured to launch when Windows starts using the following Registry key.

[HKLM\SOFTWARE\Microsoft\Windows\CurrentVersion\Run\]
"Bandera" = "C:\ProgramData\rdpclient.exe"

The wiper will now scan all the drives on the computer and encrypt any file that does not have the .ini, .dll, and .exe extensions.

When encrypting files, it will append the .azov file extension to the names of encrypted files. For example, 1.doc is encrypted and renamed to 1.doc.azov, as shown below.

Files encrypted by the 'Azov Ransomware' data wiper
Files encrypted by the 'Azov Ransomware' data wiper
Source: BleepingComputer

In each folder that is scanned for files, the wiper will create text files named RESTORE_FILES.txt that contain a message from the threat actor, as shown previously in the article.

A previous version of the wiper found by MalwareHunterTeam used a different ransom note with a much darker message.

Message from an older version of the Azov data wiper
Message from an older version of the Azov data wiper
Source: BleepingComputer

While the ransomware will be analyzed by researchers for weaknesses in the encryption, at this time, the ransomware should be considered destructive, as there is no way to contact the threat actors and recover decryption keys.

We will update this article if a method is discovered to recover files for free.

However, if this data wiper encrypted your data, you were likely also infected with other malware, such as information-stealing trojans.

Therefore, you should immediately change the passwords on your online accounts, especially those sensitive in nature, such as online banking, password managers, and email accounts."

Related Articles:

Cuba ransomware affiliate targets Ukrainian govt agencies

Microsoft: New Prestige ransomware targets orgs in Ukraine, Poland

Fake adult sites push data wipers disguised as ransomware

Leaked LockBit 3.0 builder used by ‘Bl00dy’ ransomware gang in attacks

Ukraine warns allies of Russian plans to escalate cyberattacks

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Ready Or Not, Here Comes Net Neutrality War 2.0 | Karl Bode writing in TechDirt

Karl Bode: ". . .Just like in the older net neutrality wars, when the press covers this stuff they utterly fail to illustrate to readers how much of it is bullshit. . .But the solution is clear and simple: don’t listen to telecom monopolies when they make up problems, then demand billions in new taxes and subsidies for no reason. . .


 

HERE'S ONE TELL: Captured politicians frame this tax on big tech as some kind of miracle cure for the “digital divide.” A super easy way to nab some easy political brownie points. 

✓ In reality, it’s just another way to distract you from the real problem: telecom monopolization and the corruption that protects it. . ." Mon, Oct 31st 2022 05:38am - Karl Bode

Ready Or Not, Here Comes Net Neutrality War 2.0

Broadband

from the trolls-under-the-bridge dept

Mon, Oct 31st 2022 05:38am -

"I’ve got some bad news for those of you who were frustrated or bored by decades of net neutrality bickering: it’s about to kick off all over again. And this time it’s even more global.

> In the UK, US, EU, and South Korea, telecom lobbyists have been making successful inroads on plans that would force “Big Tech” to pay “Big Telecom” companies billions of dollars for no coherent reason. They’ve convinced gullible lawmakers that tech companies get a “free ride” on the Internet, and should therefore be forced to pay telecom giants even more money to shore up essential infrastructure.

✓ Of course there are numerous problems here. One, the common claim that a tech company like Netflix or Google gets a “free ride” on the Internet is a lie pushed by telecom companies that we’ve debunked countless times. It’s a several decade old attempt by telecom giants with a rich history of subsidy fraud and skimping on fiber upgrades to “double dip” — effectively getting paid extra for no reason.

Somehow telecom lobbyists and the the politicians paid to love them have tried to dress this up as a serious adult policy proposal. Here in the states, Trump appointed FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr, who has never seen an AT&T policy proposal he hasn’t fawned over, has been beating this drum for several years. The effort has seen greater traction in the EU and South Korea, where one ISP went so far as to sue Netflix, claiming Squid Game’s popularity strained their networks unfairly.

Just like in the older net neutrality wars, when the press covers this stuff they utterly fail to illustrate to readers how much of it is bullshit. This CNBC article, for example, frames the issue this way:

Telecom groups are pushing European regulators to consider implementing a framework where the companies that send traffic along their networks are charged a fee to help fund mammoth upgrades to their infrastructure, something known as the “sender pays” principle.

Their logic is that certain platforms, like Amazon Prime and Netflix, chew through gargantuan amounts of data and should therefore foot part of the bill for adding new capacity to cope with the increased strain.

“The simple argument is that telcos want to be duly compensated for providing this access and growth in traffic,” media and telecoms analyst Paolo Pescatore, from PP Foresight, told CNBC.

✓ But none of this framing is remotely true. It’s Netflix customers who are demanding this content over broadband subscriptions they already pay an arm and a leg for due to limited broadband competition. It’s being delivered by content companies that have spent countless billions on their own transit routes, undersea cables, bandwidth, cloud infrastructure, and content delivery networks.

If an ISP network can’t handle this demand, the reason is uniformly because the ISP in question didn’t scale its network upgrades to meet demand. This isn’t your fault. This isn’t “Big Tech’s” fault. It’s the fault of telecom monopolies that routinely hoover up billions in subsidies and tax breaks in exchange for networks they always, routinely, half-deliver.

CNBC goes on, claiming this is all a big problem with “no clear solution,” with the closest it gets to skepticism being some questions about the logistics about it all:

But the solution is clear and simple: don’t listen to telecom monopolies when they make up problems, then demand billions in new taxes and subsidies for no reason. Telecom experts in the EU and US have been trying to tell policymakers this with very mixed results.

This whole mess is basically just Ma Bell looking for a hand out and dressing it up as serious adult policymaking, with the help of a gullible press. Meanwhile companies like Netflix, whose dedication to net neutrality grew strained as they grew big and powerful, now find themselves trying to, once again, fend off calls that they should subsidize big telecom, suggesting that such maybe their original principles shouldn’t have been so easily discarded.

One “tell” if you’re struggling to detect who’s engaging this policy conversation in good faith: the captured policymakers pushing the idea never discuss the real reason broadband is so spotty and expensive: monopoly power, mindless consolidation, corruption, and decades of subsidy fraud by the biggest players (see our recent report on just this subject).


Captured politicians frame this tax on big tech as some kind of miracle cure for the “digital divide.” A super easy way to nab some easy political brownie points. In reality, it’s just another way to distract you from the real problem: telecom monopolization and the corruption that protects it."

 

 

 

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