Monday, December 05, 2022

NOURIEL ROUBINI: The Unavoidable Crash


www.marketwatch.com

Opinion: High debts and stagflation will bring mother of all financial crises

Nouriel Roubini
2 minutes

Project Syndicate

The end of the easy-money era rips the mask off the insolvent zombie economy.

The explosion of unsustainable debt implied that many borrowers were insolvent “zombies” that were being propped up by low interest rates.

Getty Images/iStockphoto

NEW YORK (Project Syndicate)— The world economy is lurching toward an unprecedented confluence of economic, financial, and debt crises, following the explosion of deficits, borrowing, and leverage in recent decades.

In the private sector, the mountain of debt includes that of households (such as mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, student loans, personal loans), businesses and corporations (bank loans, bond debt, and private debt), and the financial sector (liabilities of bank and nonbank institutions).

In..." READ MORE

www.benzinga.com

Nouriel Roubini Criticizes Musk And Trump Over Rate Cut Calls: 'Both Kings Of Highly Leveraged Debt Zombi

Bhavik Nair
7 - 8 minutes
by Bhavik Nair, Benzinga Staff Writer
December 2, 2022 9:00 AM | 1 min read

Prominent economist Nouriel Roubini has criticized Elon Musk and Donald Trump in his tweet highlighting their calls for rate cuts.

What Happened: Roubini cited Musk’s tweet on interest rate cuts where the Tesla founder called for a rate cut saying the central bank is increasing the probability of recession.

“Trend is concerning. Fed needs to cut interest rates immediately. They are massively amplifying the probability of a severe recession,” Musk had tweeted on Nov. 30.

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Citing this tweet, Roubini criticized both Musk and Trump saying they tried to bully the Federal Reserve into cutting rates because of their own interests.

No wonder that both Trump and now Musk tried to bully the Fed to cut rates. They are both kings of highly leveraged debt zombie enterprises and talking their own book https://t.co/cZzTzUy8V7

Price Action: Markets surged this week following Powell’s speech on Wednesday where he said the central bank may slow the pace of rate hikes as soon as December. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust had closed 3.14% higher on Wednesday while the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF closed 0.78% higher.

Roubini is not the only noted economist to have criticized Trump. Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers had said that Trump, in many ways, set the stage for the inflation that the U.S. is witnessing.

Read Next: El-Erian Scripts Fictional Chat Between Fed's Powell And Markets: 'I Expected You To Hear The Entirety Of My Remarks...'

 

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The Unavoidable Crash | by Nouriel Roubini - Project Syndicate

Nouriel Roubini
3 - 4 minutes

"After years of ultra-loose fiscal, monetary, and credit policies and the onset of major negative supply shocks, stagflationary pressures are now putting the squeeze on a massive mountain of public- and private-sector debt. The mother of all economic crises looms, and there will be little that policymakers can do about it.

NEW YORK – The world economy is lurching toward an unprecedented confluence of economic, financial, and debt crises, following the explosion of deficits, borrowing, and leverage in recent decades.

✓ In the private sector, the mountain of debt includes that of households (such as mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, student loans, personal loans), businesses and corporations (bank loans, bond debt, and private debt), and the financial sector (liabilities of bank and nonbank institutions).

✓ In the public sector, it includes central, provincial, and local government bonds and other formal liabilities, as well as implicit debts such as unfunded liabilities from pay-as-you-go pension schemes and health-care systems – all of which will continue to grow as societies age.

Just looking at explicit debts, the figures are staggering. 


Globally, total private- and public-sector debt as a share of GDP rose from 200% in 1999 to 350% in 2021. The ratio is now 420% across advanced economies, and 330% in China. In the United States, it is 420%, which is higher than during the Great Depression and after World War II..."

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Sunday, December 04, 2022

Politico Report: Ronna Romney McDaniel set to get new opponent for RNC post


>  Harmeet Dhillon, a RNC committeewoman whose firm represents Donald Trump, is prepping a bid for party chair, according to two people familiar with her planning. Dhillon has been talking with fellow RNC members about a prospective run, and those close to Dhillon say a formal launch could come within the next few days. . .

Harmeet Dhillon is a nationally recognized lawyer, trusted boardroom advisor, and passionate advocate for individual, corporate and institutional clients ...Harmeet K. Dhillon is the CEO and founder of the Center for American Liberty, the co-chair of the Republican National Lawyers Association, ...

> Dhillon is a Fox News regular whose law firm has represented several top MAGA officials, including Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake as well as Trump in his dealings with the congressional committee investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. She has argued that there were major problems in the 2020 election and that the FBI’s search of Mar-a-Lago was “purely” political.

 

www.politico.com

Ronna McDaniel set to get new opponent for RNC post

By Alex Isenstadt 12/04/2022 06:15 PM EST Link Copied
3 - 4 minutes

"People close to Harmeet Dhillon insist that RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel’s support is soft and that she could win over those who are unhappy with the party’s disappointing showing in this year’s midterms. . .

The committee’s 168 members will hold a vote to determine the RNC chairmanship at the committee’s annual winter meeting, which is set to be held in late January in Dana Point, Calif. A McDaniel representative declined to comment on Dhillon’s anticipated candidacy.

McDaniel, who has been RNC leader since 2017 and would be the longest-serving chair in more than a century should she be reelected to a third term, may be tough to unseat. Her allies say she has already received commitments of support from more than 100 members — more than the majority of votes she would need. On Friday, McDaniel received an endorsement from David Bossie, an influential Maryland RNC committeeman once seen as a potential contender for the chairmanship. Trump himself has not endorsed.

People close to Dhillon, however, insist that McDaniel’s support is soft and that she could win over those who are unhappy with the party’s disappointing showing in this year’s midterms. . ."

READ MORE 

 


Column: The San Francisco Republican who spread Pelosi attack conspiracies gets rewarded by GOP - Los Angeles Times

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11 hours ago · San Francisco attorney Harmeet Dhillon has promoted Trumpism and conspiracy theories that helped undermine the party in California and ...


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“Our country is in a permanent state of election,” said Jan Baran, a former counsel to the Federal Election Commission and a partner at the law firm Holtzman Vogel. Prominent figures not in elected office, he added, “need to stay alive politically. What do they do? They form PACs or super PACs, or they might be associated with C4s or not-for-profits, and it’s part of sustaining their public identity and their political viability.”



www.politico.com

Haley, Pence and other potential ‘24 candidates buff up their dark money groups

By Hailey Fuchs 12/02/2022 04:30 AM EST Link Copied
6 - 8 minutes

"Nikki Haley had previously said she would not run for the White House against Donald Trump. But she began making an about-face after the midterm elections. | Mark Makela/Getty Images

Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, said this week that she will take the holiday break to mull a possible run for the White House in 2024.

Quietly, she has amassed some infrastructure to make a bid.

✓ The former South Carolina governor’s nonprofit group, Stand for America Inc., raised about $8.6 million in 2021, according to forms filed with the IRS. The group used those millions to spend heavily on digital content, direct mail campaigns and message development.

Non-profit, social welfare groups like Stand for America Inc. are restricted in the political activity they can undertake and often do focus on policy.

But in the name of issue advocacy, they can functionally operate as campaigns in waiting. As the politicians associated with them gear up to run, these groups can dole out millions on fundraising, email list cultivation, research, direct mail, and digital advertising. And they can do it all without having to reveal the source of their funds.

Haley had previously said she would not run for the White House against Donald Trump. But she began making an about-face after the midterm elections. And she’s not the only prospective Republican 2024 candidate whose nonprofit arm provides hints as to how well positioned they are for a possible run.

✓ Former Vice President Mike Pence’s group, Advancing American Freedom, raised about $7.7 million in 2021, according to its 990 form. And an aide says that the entity and an affiliated foundation, a 501(c)(3) arm, plan to dole out $35 million in 2023. Pence, who is staffing up in anticipation of a presidential run in 2024, has been open about his deliberations on the topic. And on his current book tour, he has sat for prime-time television interviews, during which he’s sought to create distance with Trump, his former boss.

✓ The group affiliated with South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (R), Opportunity Matters Network, raised about $1 million in 2021, during which it gauged “different target audiences’ potential response” to policy initiatives, cultivated its email list, and developed advertising. Two of the group’s directors are former Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.) and businessman Ben Navarro, who has given millions to a pro-Scott super PAC.

✓ An America United — the group affiliated with outgoing Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan — raised about $2 million in 2021 and reported spending on research, “supporter acquisition,” and “audience building.”

✓ Champion American Values Fund, the group affiliated with former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, reported just $126,000 raised between August 2021 and the end of that year. A CAV Fund official maintained that the group raised millions in 2022, but declined to provide a specific figure. The person added that the group has run ads in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and the Washington D.C.-metro area.

✓A nonprofit known as the America First Policy Institute, a 501(c)(3) often described as Trump’s “White House in waiting,” reported revenue of around $14.2 million.

These numbers don’t provide the full picture of the political operations each potential GOP candidate is building. They have affiliated political action committees and super PACs too, through which they can raise and spend money on politics and elections.

✓ The pro-Scott super PAC, Opportunity Matters Fund, has raised more than $36 million from the start of 2021, with the majority of that money coming from Oracle chairman Larry Ellison, according to data from the Federal Election Commission. The pro-Pompeo super PAC has raised nearly $7.6 million since the start of 2021. Among a network of groups, the pro-Trump Make America Great Again Inc. has raised about $32 million this year.

> Still, experts say that the social welfare groups, classified as 501(c)(4)s, are growing increasingly common for those with White House aspirations out of public office; that’s in part because the groups, unlike a political action committee, do not have to publicly disclose their donors. The source or sources behind a $2 million and $1 million gift to Pence’s group, for example, remain unknown.

“Our country is in a permanent state of election,” said Jan Baran, a former counsel to the Federal Election Commission and a partner at the law firm Holtzman Vogel. Prominent figures not in elected office, he added, “need to stay alive politically. What do they do? They form PACs or super PACs, or they might be associated with C4s or not-for-profits, and it’s part of sustaining their public identity and their political viability.”

Social welfare groups also serve as a temporary home for potential senior campaign staffers. Pence’s former chief of staff Marc Short serves as chair of Advancing American Freedom. T. Ulrich Brechbuhl, Pompeo’s former West Point classmate and aide, serves as the president of Champion American Values Fund. And Haley’s husband, Michael Haley, is the president of Stand for America.

In a memo provided by a Stand for America spokesperson, the group highlighted its recent policy work, including a newsletter that has reached 860,000 individuals, engagement with lawmakers, and op-eds and speeches by Haley.

✓ But perhaps the most understated benefit to the dark money group is that they don’t have to disclose their finances for months after the fact. As a result, if one of the potential candidates becomes president, their dark money vehicle could withhold disclosing its spending and fundraising for the 2024 cycle until nearly 2026.

Craig Holman, a money-in-politics lobbyist at the watchdog group Public Citizen, noted that these kinds of groups have become increasingly common. He called the social welfare organizations run by potential candidates an “abuse of the tax code.”

“Even though they are masquerading as a non-profit working on some social welfare cause, their real intent is to promote the candidacy of the affiliated office holder or candidate,” Holman said."


 

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Thousands rally in Rome against arming Ukraine

 


www.ft.com

Italians demand end to Ukraine arms shipments in Rome peace march 



Amy Kazmin, Giuliana Ricozzi
4 - 6 minutes

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"Tens of thousands of Italians marched through Rome on Saturday calling for a halt to arms shipments to Ukraine and a ceasefire, highlighting the resistance that Giorgia Meloni’s new government could face in providing further military support for Kyiv.

Waving rainbow flags with the words “peace” and “non-violence”, members of labour unions and Catholic associations, scouts, students and a range of social activists demanded an end to fighting and a serious international diplomatic initiative to negotiate a solution to the conflict.

“Ukrainians are dying, Russians are dying and there is no meaning for this,” said doctor Cynthia Masini, 56. “We send weapons while our sons and daughters are warm and comfortable in their beds and children there are dying. It’s not tolerable.”

Citing Italy’s own history of violent conflict, marcher Spartaco Geppetti, 70, a member of an antifascism organisation, called for dialogue to resolve the issues between Russia and Ukraine. “We are against the war and only want peace,” he said. “This is not good for Europe, or the world. They must stop.”

Other marchers waved placards with slogans such as “weapons down, wages up”, “enough arms to Ukraine” and “We don’t want war. No weapons, no sanctions. Where is diplomacy?”

Meloni, sworn in as prime minister two weeks ago at the head of a new rightwing government, is a staunch supporter of the Ukrainian cause and has vowed continuity with her predecessor Mario Draghi’s tough stand against Russia.

But she faces resistance to further arms shipments as Italy’s economy reels from the effects of the conflict, including slowing growth and inflation that hit nearly 12 per cent in October, the highest level in almost three decades.

Meloni’s own alliance partners, Matteo Salvini, leader of Lega Nord, and Silvio Berlusconi, the 86-year-old former prime minister, both have past ties with Russian leader Vladimir Putin and have expressed ambivalence about Draghi’s hard line against Moscow.

Berlusconi recently caused a stir by telling Forza Italia lawmakers he had recently exchanged gifts of fine alcohol and “sweet letters” with Putin, in reviving a longtime personal friendship.

Meanwhile, Five Star leader Giuseppe Conte, who threw his weight behind the Rome peace march, has also warned against further weapons shipments to Kyiv.

“Ukraine is now fully armed — we need a breakthrough towards a ceasefire and peace negotiations,” Conte, who triggered the chain of events that led to the unexpected collapse of Draghi’s government, told reporters.

“No one thought that Ukraine should be left alone and we did not declare ourselves indifferent or equidistant,” said Conte. “But this strategy is leading only to escalation.”

Many march participants echoed the concern that arming Ukraine was only prolonging the devastating conflict and could lead to the use of nuclear weapons.

“The drama in Ukraine must not be underestimated — the way to peace must be urgently sought,” said Andrea Riccardi, founder of the influential Catholic social organisation Sant’Egidio. “The atomic threat is not a phantom, but a possible threat . . . We are not neutral but we stand for peace.”

Riccardi urged Putin “out of love for his people to bring Russia out of the spirals of war” and asked Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy “to be open to serious proposals for peace”.

Giovanni Timoteo, a member of the Confederation of Italian Workers, said: “I am absolutely against sending new weapons to Ukraine. Today, people want peace with weapons. It is inconceivable. Ukraine has the right to defend itself, but we need a big UN initiative for peace.”

Yet even as the heart of Rome filled with peace marchers, Carlo Calenda, leader of the centrist Azione party, organised a counterdemonstration in Milan, with strong support from Italy’s large Ukrainian community.

“Those who call for peace but also to disarm Ukraine call for the surrender of Ukraine,” Calenda told reporters ahead of the Milan event.

Among the demonstrators in Milan, Oles Horodetskyy, president of the Christian Association of Ukrainians in Italy, was critical of the Rome marchers, asking “are they pro-peace, or pro-Putin?”

“Not giving weapons to those defending themselves from attackers means to favour those who attack,” he added."



 

Thousands in Italy march for peace in Ukraine - France 24

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Nov 5, 2022 · Tens of thousands of Italians marched through Rome on Saturday calling for peace in Ukraine and urging Italy to stop sending of weapons to ...

Thousands in Italy march for peace in Ukraine - RFI

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Nov 5, 2022 · Tens of thousands of Italians marched through Rome on Saturday calling for peace in Ukraine and urging Italy to stop sending of weapons to ...

Italian Protesters in Rome Demand End to Ukraine Arms Shipments - World news

www.tasnimnews.com › 2022/11/06 › ita...
Nov 6, 2022 · TEHRAN (Tasnim) – Tens of thousands of Italians poured onto the streets of Rome on Saturday to call for peace in Ukraine. 

Thousands rally in Rome against arming Ukraine (VIDEO) — RT World News

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Thousands rally in Rome against arming Ukraine from www.rt.com
5 hours ago · Left-wing demonstrators marched in Rome, protesting their government's decision to renew arms shipments to Ukraine until 2024.
www.rt.com

Thousands rally in Rome against arming Ukraine (VIDEO)

3 minutes

Trade unionists and leftists marched after the new government promised more arms for Kiev next year

Left-wing demonstrators took to the streets in Rome on Saturday, demanding higher wages and condemning the Italian government for renewing a decree allowing it to send weapons to Ukraine until 2024.

Organized by Italy’s USB trade union and backed by a number of leftist political factions, the protest saw thousands of people assemble at the Piazza della Repubblica and march behind a banner reading “guns down, wages up."

Large-scale protests against arms supplies to Ukraine took place in Rome.The protest march was organized by national trade unions. The protesters are not satisfied with the economic situation in the country. The demonstrators demand higher wages. pic.twitter.com/nIZaxv4ED4

— Natalia Gabriella Dominica (@Natalia96058112) December 4, 2022

‼️Hoy estaba viendo las noticias en el Canal 1 de España y estas Noticias no muestran. ¡¡¡Y sin embargo hay manifestaciones en toda Europa!!! 🇮🇹 En Italia los sindicatos nacionales organizaron una marcha de protesta en Roma contra el suministro de armas a Ucrania.👇 pic.twitter.com/JpYQEG2qxe

— ANGELIKA DIMON (@angelika_dimon) December 4, 2022

“The Meloni government is dragging us further and further into a spiral of war with unpredictable outcomes,” the USB wrote prior to the protest. “Italy is evidently a belligerent and active country in the conflict, despite the fact that the great majority of the population is against the war and the consequent sharp increase in military spending.”

Italy’s new prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, issued a decree on Thursday allowing her cabinet to continue sending weapons to Ukraine until the end of 2023 without seeking the formal approval of parliament. Her predecessor, Mario Draghi, was a staunch supporter of Kiev and lost power after a disagreement over arms shipments split the largest party in his coalition government, the Five Star Movement.

The Italian public is split too, with 49% opposing sending weapons to Kiev and 38% in favor, according to a poll taken by EuroWeek News last month. Additionally, 49% of Italians believe that Ukraine needs to make concessions to Russia in the ongoing conflict to speed up the peace process, while only 36% want Kiev to keep fighting.

Last month, another rally in Rome calling for a peace deal to end the Ukrainian conflict drew 100,000 people, organizers said.

IN PICTURES: Thousands in Italy march for peace in Ukraine

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Thousands in Italy march for peace in Ukraine - Ahram Online

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Nov 5, 2022 · Tens of thousands of Italians marched through Rome on Saturday calling for peace in Ukraine and urging Italy to stop sending of weapons to ...

Italians demand end to Ukraine arms shipments in Rome peace march | Financial Times

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Nov 5, 2022 · Tens of thousands of Italians marched through Rome on Saturday calling for a halt to arms shipments to Ukraine and a ceasefire, ...

Thousands in Italy march for peace in Ukraine | The Peninsula Qatar

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Nov 5, 2022 · Rome: Tens of thousands of Italians marched through Rome on Saturday calling for peace in Ukraine and urging Italy to stop sending of ...

Italian protesters march against sending weapons to Ukraine - Pars Today

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Nov 5, 2022 · Tens of thousands of protesters marched through the Italian capital city Rome on Saturday, urging the government to stop sending of weapons ...

Thousands rally in Rome against arming Ukraine (VIDEO) — RT World News - Good Word News

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5 hours ago · Left-wing protesters took to the streets of Rome on Saturday, demanding higher wages and condemning the Italian government for renewing a decree ...
www.vaticannews.va

We want peace! - Vatican News

3 - 4 minutes

As the Russian invasion sows pain and devastation in Ukraine and threatens to spread, other wars continue to claim victims in Syria, Yemen, Ethiopia, and elsewhere. Those who pay the highest price are most defenseless, especially children. Ordinary people want peace.

By Sergio Centofanti

Now, more than ever, we dream of Isaiah's prophecy: "They shall beat their swords into plowshares and their spears into pruning hooks; One nation shall not raise the sword against another, nor shall they train for war again" (Is 2:4).

For too long here in Europe, we have taken peace for granted. War was the business of others, of distant peoples; we could forget about those wars, since we were involved in them only by the cries of refugees in search of a new hope.

We were perhaps insensitive to the pain of those people. Those wars are still there: Syria, Yemen, Ethiopia, and many others. People still flee those wars, just trying to stay alive.

Like night and day

Life, sometimes, changes suddenly. The night before the Russian invasion, crowds filled the streets and restaurants of Ukrainian cities. People tried not to think about the massing of Moscow's troops on the border. No one imagined that the drama would come within hours.

The evening was filled with peace, yet the night brought outright war. The evening saw couples walking arm in arm, while the next day those same people carried rifles under their arms.

One young couple got married right after the invasion and enlisted to defend their country. Many children were taken out of Ukraine, as many others huddle still under falling bombs. It is a new slaughter of the innocent.

Near or far?

We have grown too accustomed to peace. We complain daily about so many petty things. But when war suddenly breaks out, we see clearly what is essential.

Peace is essential. Psalm 144 reminds us of this: "May there be no breach in the walls, no exile, no outcry in our streets. Blessed the people so fortunate.”

Now fighting has returned to Europe. We find ourselves afraid and distressed. For others, perhaps, this remains another distant war.

For Ukrainians it is in their land which someone wants to steal. For Europeans the war is close. The nightmare of nuclear war looms. Missiles could hit a nuclear power plant.

In the midst of this anxiety there is an outpouring of solidarity for those who have been attacked. Saturday morning’s Lauds reading says, "Relieve the oppressed" (Isaiah 1:17).

What can we do to help?

Ordinary solidarity and prayer

We want peace! We do not want the war of the powerful who aim to amass more power with the blood of others, even that of their own children, who are used, deceived, and sent to kill and die.

How can we stop this madness? Some resort to sanctions, others to weapons, and still others walk the path of diplomacy.

What can ordinary people do? Help out. Stand in solidarity with the Ukrainian people. And pray for peace.

Living in peace

Today, more than ever, we dream of another prophecy, in which enemies will finally live together in peace.

"Then the wolf shall be a guest of the lamb, and the leopard shall lie down with the young goat; The calf and the young lion shall browse together, with a little child to guide them" (Is 11:6).

Lord, give us peace!

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