The myth of the liberal international order
By Niall Ferguson Source:Global Times Published: 2018/1/11 20:28:39
"The phrase international order reminds me of the phrase Western civilization. As Indian independence icon Mahatma Gandhi wittily replied when asked about Western civilization, "It would be a good idea." The notion that international order exists or has ever existed seems highly questionable to me. The notion of a liberal international order is even more questionable because it is neither liberal, nor international, nor very orderly.
It is often claimed by political scientists that the liberal international order came into existence in 1945. The argument goes that American and British statesmen, having learned from the terrible mistakes of the 1930s and 1940s, decided to make the world anew by creating a series of remarkable international institutions: the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund and later the World Bank. According to this narrative, Donald Trump's election as US president in 2016 was a wrecking ball directed at the liberal international order created by the generation of 1945.
It is often claimed by political scientists that the liberal international order came into existence in 1945. The argument goes that American and British statesmen, having learned from the terrible mistakes of the 1930s and 1940s, decided to make the world anew by creating a series of remarkable international institutions: the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund and later the World Bank. According to this narrative, Donald Trump's election as US president in 2016 was a wrecking ball directed at the liberal international order created by the generation of 1945.
Yet this is a fairy tale . . . "
What comes next?
". . . There are two possible scenarios. In one, China and the US collide over both commercial and geopolitical issues and fall into the "Thucydides Trap" about which Graham Allison has written in his book Destined for War.
The much preferable alternative is that China and the US recognize their common interests as great powers facing multiple threats, such as Islamic terrorism, nuclear proliferation, cyber warfare and climate change. But they will not be able to do so as a team of two. They will need the support of the other great powers represented as permanent members of the UN Security Council: Britain, France and Russia. A key issue for the next 10 years is whether Russia can be persuaded to work collaboratively with the other great powers.
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The author is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a visiting professor at Tsinghua University. The article is an excerpt of his speech at Peking University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn
The much preferable alternative is that China and the US recognize their common interests as great powers facing multiple threats, such as Islamic terrorism, nuclear proliferation, cyber warfare and climate change. But they will not be able to do so as a team of two. They will need the support of the other great powers represented as permanent members of the UN Security Council: Britain, France and Russia. A key issue for the next 10 years is whether Russia can be persuaded to work collaboratively with the other great powers.
__________________________________________________________________________________
The author is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a visiting professor at Tsinghua University. The article is an excerpt of his speech at Peking University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn
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