According to the analysis by satellite data monitoring firm SpaceKnow, the two “dark ships,” each measuring around 95 to 130 meters long, passed within several miles of the Nord Stream 2 leak sites. “We have detected some dark ships, meaning vessels that were of a significant size, that were passing through that area of interest,” says Jerry Javornicky, the CEO and cofounder of SpaceKnow. “They had their beacons off, meaning there was no information about their movement, and they were trying to keep their location information and general information hidden from the world,” Javornicky adds.
✓ SAR images of the dark ships shared with WIRED show the vessels as glowing objects, not far from the explosion site around Nord Stream 2. “We assume it was one of those two dark ships that we have detected, but we're not making any decision,” Javornicky says. He says the company is not in the business of determining what may have happened or who is responsible but instead provided the data to authorities.
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“Dark ships” emerge from the shadow of the Nord Stream pipeline mystery
Once it gathered archive images of the area, SpaceKnow created a series of polygons around the gas leak sites. The smallest of these, around 400 square meters, covered the immediate blast area, and larger areas of interest covered several kilometers. In the weeks leading up to the explosions, SpaceKnow detected 25 ships passing through the region, from “cargo ships to multipurpose larger ships,” Javornicky says.
✓ In total, 23 of these vessels had their automatic identification system (AIS) transponders turned on. Two did not have AIS data turned on, and these ships passed the area during the days immediately ahead of the leaks being detected.
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By international law, large ships are required to install and use AIS. This vessel tracking system was created to help ships navigate and avoid potential collisions with other vessels. When turned on, AIS will broadcast a ship’s name, location, the direction of travel, speed, and other information.
It is relatively rare for ships to turn off their AIS transponders. Ships that “go dark” are often suspected of being involved in illegal fishing or modern slavery, with officials in Europe previously investigating ships that are believed to have turned off their AIS transponders. “It would not be common practice [to have AIS turned off], unless the vessels have a classified military mission or they would have some clandestine objectives, because the Baltic Sea is one of the busiest seas in the world in terms of commercial traffic,” says Otto Tabuns, the director of the Baltic Security Foundation, an NGO that focuses on the region.
Tabuns says the Baltic Sea has multiple main “arteries” where ships travel and it is “responsible” for ships in the area to have their AIS trackers turned on. Collisions at sea can be deadly and environmentally ruinous. “There are many places in the [Baltic] sea that are not navigable for bigger ships,” Tabuns says. “There are also some areas that are not recommended or where it is prohibited to ship because of the heritage of World War Two.” Decades-old wartime submarines and munitions litter the Baltic Sea’s floor.
SpaceKnow detected the ships that had AIS turned off using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images from satellites. Most satellites observing Earth take photos of what’s beneath them; others, however, also use SAR to bounce radio waves off the ground and create images from them. Andrey Kurekin, a coastal ocean color scientist at the Plymouth Marine Laboratory who has analyzed satellite images for detecting objects at sea, says SAR technology can be useful for detecting ships, as it shows reflections from metal objects. “They are shown as bright objects in SAR images,” Kurekin says.
Kurekin says SAR images can be used to identify the longitude and latitude coordinates of a ship, the direction it is heading, and potentially to estimate its speed. “The main advantage of SAR over optical sensors is that the microwaves penetrate through clouds,” Kurekin says. The images are less impacted by the weather and can also provide visibility at night. “It's quite difficult to hide a ship from a SAR sensor,” Kurekin adds.
SAR images of the dark ships shared with WIRED show the vessels as glowing objects, not far from the explosion site around Nord Stream 2. “We assume it was one of those two dark ships that we have detected, but we're not making any decision,” Javornicky says. He says the company is not in the business of determining what may have happened or who is responsible but instead provided the data to authorities.
Kurekin cautions that AIS tracking systems onboard ships can, at times, fail. The signal from AIS could stop communicating with satellites or receivers on land, Kurekin says, adding that the signal can be impacted by the weather too. “If there is a vessel that you can see in SAR image but it's not reported by the AIS system, it does not necessarily mean that there's something wrong with this vessel,” Kurekin says. Signals from AIS transponders can also be manipulated—warships have had their AIS data spoofed, and ships around Russia and the Black Sea have vanished from trackers in recent years.
While there are multiple ongoing investigations into the explosions, determining the full picture of what happened may take some time. Police in Copenhagen said its initial investigations have determined that “powerful explosions” caused “extensive damage” to the pipes. Images taken from around the exploded sections of the pipe appear to show that at least 50 meters of the pipeline were destroyed in the explosions.
In an email, the Swedish security service, Säkerhetspolisen, said that due to “secrecy” around its operations, it could not discuss its investigation or whether it was looking at satellite data. However, agency spokesperson Gabriel Wernstedt says the organization is conducting a “criminal investigation of gross sabotage” around both the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipes. “Certain seizures were made during the onsite investigations that are being analyzed,” Wernstedt says. In public statements, Säkerhetspolisen has confirmed denotations happened at the pipes and that the Swedish armed forces are involved in the investigations.
However, while the investigations are ongoing, there appear to be difficulties between the countries that are looking into the incident, which could slow the process. While Sweden says it is working with investigators in Germany and Denmark, the official leading its investigation has rejected plans to form a joint investigation.
Tabuns says he hopes that the incident will act as motivation for countries to work on better ways to share intelligence, particularly as Sweden and Finland apply to join NATO. Each country will have its own levels of classification for information and systems where it collects intelligence—these may often not be compatible, Tabuns says. However, he adds that the events should see countries look at increasing the “integration of existing national systems so that there would be real-time information sharing for any response.”
This story originally appeared on wired.com.
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