Is this a soft landing or the start of a recession?
If the economy avoids a recession, it will be in spite of the Fed, not because of it.
"What goes up must come down — in fame, in politics, in power, and, like it or not, in the economy. The question is just what the down part will look like. Will it be a crash or a gentle return to earth? . . .
[read between-the-lines]
Insert -- If you read between the lines, you understand what someone really means, or what is really happening in a situation, even though it is not said openly
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. . .Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said she thinks the US is in a sort of “rolling” recession. Certain parts of the economy, such as housing, are contracting, while others, such as services, are not. Whether that ultimately translates to a broad-based recession or soft landing remains to be seen, but she’s not optimistic.
“Before what’s gone on in the banking system, probably the best-case scenario would not really be defined as a soft landing but one where, if the services side started to weaken, maybe the goods side would have started to stabilize and improve, and you would continue to see this roll through the economy without taking the economy down in aggregate to a degree such that it declared a recession,” she said. But now, with the banking system and the tightening she expects to see in credit conditions, “the rolling recession will roll into a formally declared recession.”
When it comes to what’s next for the economy, nobody has a crystal ball here … and if they did, they would be very, very rich. A soft landing may not be the most probable outcome, but it’s happened before, and it’s possible. And hey, plenty of people have been saying a deep recession is just around the corner for months now, and that doesn’t appear to have happened yet. Are we in the midst of a soft landing?
The honest answer is it’s just too early to tell."
'There’s a recession on the horizon,’ PIMCO Managing Director says
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