The Korean War never officially ended after the guns fell silent in a cease-fire in 1953. Still technically at war, both Koreas have since engaged in an arms race, building two of the world’s largest standing armies, with large stockpiles of weapons.
NEWS ANALYSIS
History Turns Upside Down in a War Where the Koreas Are Suppliers
Reporting from Seoul
North Korea, though isolated and impoverished, has prioritized a military buildup, with its propaganda machines urging constant vigilance against American invasion. It developed its missiles by reverse-engineering Soviet systems. It is believed to have built its first intercontinental ballistic missiles with black-market rockets from Ukraine. The country has also earned cash by selling weapons to countries like Syria and Iran.
South Korea has built its defense industry by copying weapons provided in military aid from the United States. It also grabbed technology where it could, developing its first space rocket with Russian technology. It, too, leveraged its arms industry for exports, winning multibillion-dollar contracts to sell tanks, howitzers, warplanes, missiles and armored vehicles to help feed the demand driven, in part, by the war in Ukraine.
The State of the War
- Ukraine’s Counteroffensive: Ukraine’s military said that it had retaken another village outside the ruined city of Bakhmut, the latest advance in Kyiv’s campaign to drive Russian forces from the country’s east.
- Zelensky in the U.S.: President Volodymyr Zelensky’s second trip to the United States comes at a more delicate diplomatic moment, as the Ukrainian leader tries to navigate political currents while expressing gratitude for Western support.
- Putin-Kim Meeting: The summit in eastern Russia between President Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea, signaled a potential new era in relations between Moscow and Pyongyang.
“In the post-Cold War era, South and North Korea have been virtually the only countries that have remained on a constant war footing, with large artillery and other weapons stockpiles ready to use,” said Yang Uk, a military expert at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul. “The fact that South and North Korea remain stuck in a Cold War armed confrontation explains why Washington and Moscow come to them seeking weapons.”
- South Korean and American officials have been tight-lipped about how many shells South Korea has provided to the United States, and Seoul treats information on its weapons stocks as top secret.
- But recent news reports indicated that South Korea has sold or lent at least hundreds of thousands of artillery shells to the U.S. military.
- The administration of President Yoon Suk Yeol decided to supply shells to the United States, designating it as the “end user” for the munitions.
“It’s basically left to the U.S. to decide whether to send the shells it received from South Korea to Ukraine,” Mr. Yang said.
- Nor has there been any public evidence that Russia has used North Korean arms and ammunition on the battlefield in Ukraine — evidence that Washington would be eager to publicize.
- But U.S. officials have repeatedly warned that North Korea was shipping artillery shells and rockets to Russia.
- “The only ammunition North Korea cannot supply is smart ammunition.
- North Korea produces mainly the good, old, dumb, unguided — and thus not very precise — shells and not the more effective guided shells.”
One big question is how fast North Korea could supply munitions in the amounts Russia needs without being caught.
“There seems to have been behind-the-scenes negotiation for North Korea to serve as a rear base of supplies for Russia,” he said.
- In return for its weapons, North Korea hopes to get Russian food, energy and parts for its aging fleet of Soviet-era warplanes, tanks, howitzers and submarines, analysts said.
- It also covets recent versions of Russia’s Sukhoi fighter jets and its S-300 and S-400 air defense systems, they said.
- While hosting Mr. Kim at the new Russian spaceport, the Vostochny Cosmodrome, Mr. Putin indicated that Russia may help North Korea with its troubled military spy satellite program.
Mr. Kim was expected to visit weapons factories and naval facilities in Komsomolsk-on-Amur and Vladivostok in Russia’s far east later this week.
Analysts warn that Mr. Kim’s diplomacy with Mr. Putin entails more than weapons trade, signaling a broader shift in his policy — from seeking negotiations with Washington to more definitively aligning with Russia and China against the United States.
But despite the warming ties between Russia and North Korea, there is still doubt that Mr. Putin would go so far as to provide North Korea with technology to perfect its ICBMs or build nuclear-powered submarines.
“Even a desperate war machine does not trade its military crown jewels for old, dumb munitions,” said Professor Leif-Eric Easley of Ewha Womans University in Seoul. “Trust is so low among Russia, North Korea and China that a real alliance of the three isn’t credible or sustainable.”
Choe Sang-Hun is the Seoul bureau chief for The Times, focusing on news in North and South Korea. More about Choe Sang-Hun
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