Analysis of the Redfin Estimate for more than 95 million U.S. residential properties as of June 2024

 

U.S. Housing Market Nears $50 Trillion in Value as Number of Trillion-Dollar Metros Doubles

August 8, 2024 by Mark Worley and Chen Zhao

 

 

 

• There are now eight trillion-dollar metros, up from four a year ago, with Anaheim, CA, Washington, DC, Chicago and Phoenix joining the list of places where the total value of homes tops $1 trillion.
• Two New Jersey metros within commuting distance of New York saw the fastest growth in aggregate home value, while Sun Belt metros grew more slowly.
• The total value of homes owned by millennials grew by more than 20% as the Silent Generation’s home value fell for the fifth consecutive quarter.
• Majority Asian neighborhoods experienced the largest spike in total home value, rising 9% to $1.4 trillion.

The total value of U.S homes gained $3.1 trillion over the past 12 months to reach a record $49.6 trillion.

This is according to an analysis of the Redfin Estimate for more than 95 million U.S. residential properties as of June 2024. This data is subject to revision. 

In percentage terms, the total value of the U.S. housing market grew 6.6% year over year. 

• Zooming out further, the total value of U.S. homes has more than doubled in the past decade, climbing nearly 120% from $22.7 trillion in June 2014.

Home values are being pushed higher because supply is still being outweighed by demand. Home inventory levels remain low compared to before the pandemic, with many owners staying put due to the rate lock-in effect. 

While elevated mortgage rates are keeping many buyers on the sidelines as well, there are still enough of them to compete over a relatively small pool of homes, and that demand is driving values up. 

• “The value of America’s housing market will likely cross the $50 trillion threshold in the next 12 months as there are not enough homes being listed to push prices down,” said Redfin Economics Research Lead Chen Zhao. 
• “Mortgage rates have started falling, but many potential sellers and buyers are waiting to make a move, meaning we are likely to continue seeing a pattern where prices slowly tick up. That’s great news for the millions of American homeowners who see their equity rising, but first-time buyers are going to keep finding it tough to find an affordable home.”

New construction was another factor driving the overall increase in market valuation. 

Our analysis examined the Redfin Estimate for roughly 97.6 million homes, compared to 96.8 million homes a year earlier.

New Jersey metros close to New York City recorded the largest jumps in value

Thirteen major metros posted double-digit percentage gains in total property value over the last year, led by relatively-affordable New Jersey metros within commuting distance of New York, where property is more expensive. The value of properties in New Brunswick, NJ, rose 13.3% to $582.6 billion, while Newark, NJ, climbed 13.2% to $406.2 billion. Anaheim, CA (up 12.1% to $1.1 trillion), Charleston, SC, (up 11.8% to $188.9 billion) and New Haven, CT, (up 11.8% to $91 billion) rounded out the five metros with the highest gains.

Redfin examined the 100 most-populous metro areas and included the 95 that had sufficient data in this analysis. 

Cape Coral, FL, was the only metro to record a fall in total home value, dropping 1.6% to $204.2 billion. 

Sun Belt metros—especially those in Texas—grew slower than those in other regions, with New Orleans (up 0.8% to $128.2 billion), Austin, TX, (up 1.9% to $392.8 billion), North Port, FL, (up 2.1% to $251.8 billion) and Fort Worth, TX, (up 2.3% to $293.7 billion) rounding out the bottom five metros.

Anaheim, Chicago, Phoenix and Washington, DC reach trillion-dollar status

The number of metros where the total value of homes topped $1 trillion grew to eight—doubling from four a year ago—with Anaheim, CA, Chicago, Phoenix and Washington, DC, joining New York, Los Angeles, Atlanta and Boston in the trillion-dollar club. 

• San Diego and Seattle look like they will join them in the next 12 months if home values keep increasing at a similar pace. 

It’s worth noting that while San Francisco’s aggregate home value is roughly $700 billion, when combined with neighbors Oakland, CA, and San Jose, CA, the combined Bay Area housing market is worth nearly $2.5 trillion. Likewise, the combined Dallas ($734 million) and Fort Worth ($294 million) metro area also surpasses the $1 trillion mark.

Total value of suburban homes reaches $30 trillion, but rural home values rising the fastest

Rural home values outpaced those in urban areas and the suburbs, jumping 7% year over year to $7.8 trillion. 

• The total value of homes in urban areas rose 6% to $10.3 trillion, while 
• the value of homes in the suburbs cracked the $30 trillion mark for the first time, increasing 6.8% to $30.1 trillion.

There are around 57 million homes in the suburbs, compared to 22 million in urban areas and 21 million in rural areas.

The total value of millennial-owned homes rises more than 20%

The total value of homes owned by millennials rose 21.5% year over year to $8.6 trillion in the first quarter of 2024—the most recent period for which generational data is available—nearly four times as fast as any other generation.

The increase is partly due to the overall growth in home prices, but also because millennials are now the largest generation by population and have reached an age and financial position where they make up a larger share of the homebuying market. 

• Around two-thirds of the mortgages taken out in 2023 were issued to homebuyers under the age of 45.

• Meanwhile, the total value of homes owned by the Silent Generation fell for the fifth straight quarter, dropping 1.6% to $4.6 trillion.
• The value of homes owned by baby boomers increased 6.1% to $19 trillion, while 
• Gen X home values rose 5.9% to $13.6 trillion.

Asian neighborhoods experience largest increase in home value

After falling in 2022-2023, the total value of homes in neighborhoods that are majority Asian bounced back over the past 12 months, rising 9% to $1.4 trillion. The increased value is being caused by price growth in West Coast cities—where many Asian neighborhoods are located.

In comparison, 

• majority white neighborhoods experienced a 6.6% increase in value to $39.4 trillion, while 
• majority Black neighborhoods saw a 5.4% increase in value to $1.4 trillion. 
• The value of homes in majority Hispanic neighborhoods increased 6.4% to $2 trillion.