Reminder from Axios (below). . .Inflation may still sit above the Fed’s target, but the greater risk to the economy lies in the pace and severity of labor market weakening | @elerianm

 

Even when overall CPI inflation looks relatively contained, the headline rate often hides huge differences—some items see particularly sharp price hikes, while others may mev even be falling in price. 

In today’s data, one standout inflation jump also has adverse distributional implications.

With the US CPI numbers matching the consensus forecasts, the main market mover this morning is jobless claims, which came in far higher than expected (please see tables below). The overall signal from this week’s data is clear—and one I’ve stressed for some time, now increasingly echoed by others: inflation may still sit above the Fed’s target, but the greater risk to the economy lies in the pace and severity of labor market weakening. #economy #inflation #jobs #employment #markets