For the first time in 40 years home builders have more than double the inventory of existing homeowners.
That has never happened before in modern U.S. real estate history. And it explains more about the current market than any headline you have read this year.
Here is what is actually going on.
Millions of existing homeowners are sitting on 2% and 3% mortgage rates they locked in during the pandemic. Selling means giving up that rate forever and stepping into a 7% mortgage on their next purchase. So they are holding. Waiting. Keeping their homes off the market indefinitely.
Builders do not have that luxury.
They are building, completing, and listing homes right now whether the market cooperates or not. Nine months of builder inventory — comparable to 2008 crash levels — is the result. And to move that inventory builders are cutting prices, buying down mortgage rates, and offering incentives that existing sellers simply cannot match.
That creates a split market unlike anything seen before.
New construction is where the deals are. Existing inventory is frozen. And the buyers who understand which side of this to be on right now are walking away with opportunities that would have seemed impossible three years ago.
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