Perhaps better known as a conservative economic historian and political commentator, author and biographer, Niall Ferguson nonetheless he takes advantage of media in many forms to keep the public informed. (He is Scottish)
He's been featured in more than a few earlier post on this blog in reviews of his more recognized academic history books and recognized achievents.
Here's a big sample of just a small selection of his writings and appearances, kicking off this post with an announcement that he'll be featured at The Festival of Dangerous Ideas in November 2018:
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Videos
Niall Ferguson, MA, D.Phil., is Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University. He is also a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford ...
https://www.theguardian.com/.../niall-ferguson-quits-stanford-free-speech-role-over-leak...
Jun 2, 2018 - Niall Ferguson, the conservative British historian and political commentator, has resigned from a key position on a US university free speech ...
And a quick trip down memory lane ... Some greatest hits from my financial journalism, 2006-2008: www.niallferguson.com/b…
Ten years on, the global financial system doesn't look a whole lot more stable than it was in 2008. And the debt pile is even bigger: www.thetimes.co.uk/edit… pic.twitter.com/pvVycgJ…
1 day ago · Twitter
Excerpts from Niall Ferguson’s Pre-Crisis Journalism
REASONS TO WORRY (NEW YORK TIMES MAGAZINE)
"According to calculations published by Barron's in February, over the next two years the monthly payments on about $600 billion of mortgages taken out by borrowers in the so-called subprime market (those with checkered or nonexistent credit histories) will increase by as much as 50 percent. This is because many A.R.M.'s have two-year teaser periods to entice borrowers. After that, the meaning of ‘adjustable’ suddenly becomes (in this case, painfully) apparent. The dinosaurs, we conjecture, succumbed to global climate change. The American beast — call it debtlodocus — faces a comparable economic challenge. The global economic climate seems to be changing. We hear no more talk of deflation; we hear a lot about rising rates. For America's giant, dinosaurlike economy — with its small, wealthy head; its big, fat middle; and its long low-income tail — there is a tried-and-tested response to a change in the weather. Dollar depreciation and inflation have saved the debtlodocus before. The assumption seems to be that they will do the trick again. Yet this time may be different. For sinking like a velociraptor's fangs into the tail of the debtlodocus are interest-rate hikes that may outpace and check any increase in inflation. And no one knows when and how violently the leviathan may react to this slowly discernible pain.”
June 11, 2006http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/11/magazine/11national.html?pagewanted=print&_r=0
"According to calculations published by Barron's in February, over the next two years the monthly payments on about $600 billion of mortgages taken out by borrowers in the so-called subprime market (those with checkered or nonexistent credit histories) will increase by as much as 50 percent. This is because many A.R.M.'s have two-year teaser periods to entice borrowers. After that, the meaning of ‘adjustable’ suddenly becomes (in this case, painfully) apparent. The dinosaurs, we conjecture, succumbed to global climate change. The American beast — call it debtlodocus — faces a comparable economic challenge. The global economic climate seems to be changing. We hear no more talk of deflation; we hear a lot about rising rates. For America's giant, dinosaurlike economy — with its small, wealthy head; its big, fat middle; and its long low-income tail — there is a tried-and-tested response to a change in the weather. Dollar depreciation and inflation have saved the debtlodocus before. The assumption seems to be that they will do the trick again. Yet this time may be different. For sinking like a velociraptor's fangs into the tail of the debtlodocus are interest-rate hikes that may outpace and check any increase in inflation. And no one knows when and how violently the leviathan may react to this slowly discernible pain.”
June 11, 2006http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/11/magazine/11national.html?pagewanted=print&_r=0
BUT WHICH IS RIGHT? (SUNDAY TELEGRAPH)
“Growing U.S. household debt has been the single biggest driver of global growth in the past five years. When Americans do finally stop borrowing and start saving, the effects could be bigger than the bankies anticipate. (Fact: 29 per cent of borrowers who took out mortgages in the U.S. last year have no equity in their homes or owe more than their house is worth.) My guess is that belts are already being tightened. Certainly, consumer confidence has fallen to levels we’ve seen only twice in the past ten years.
“‘Magnitude in affairs is a valid defence for certain irregularities’: I often think of Melmotte’s motto when I walk through the West End, where the hedgies hang out. The way we live now is, of course, different in many ways from the way Trollope’s contemporaries lived. (They didn’t have Big Brother or the World Cup.) But certain things remain the same. ‘All the world knew that just at the present moment money was very “tight” in the City,’ is Melmotte’s reply when his creditors press him for payment. Thanks to the bankies and their inflation targets, money is tight again today, and getting tighter. How long before the first big hedgie is pushed over the edge? Or will the bankies blink first?”
June 16, 2006http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3625793/The-bankies-and-the-hedgies-go-to-war-but-which-is-right.html
