Wednesday, June 08, 2022

OECD Slashes Down Global Growth Rate for Years To Come ...for Reasons beyond The Ukraine

Intro: ". . .The gloomy assessment, which echoes a similar warning from the World Bank, indicates a deeper and broader economic fallout from Russia’s invasion that will make it harder to set the right fiscal and monetary policies.
This is the first detailed view from the OECD, which didn’t issue full forecasts in April because of the prevailing uncertainty. . .
The OECD observed that inflation is hitting living standards and reducing consumer spending across the globe, and business are becoming less optimistic about future production.
Crucially, that hit to confidence is deterring investment, which in turn threatens to hurt supply “for years to come,” it said. . .

Russia-Ukraine war threatens prolonged effect on global economy

The OECD has slashed its outlook for global growth and doubled inflation projection, warning fallout from war could worsen.

"The world economy will pay a “hefty price” for the war in Ukraine encompassing weaker growth, stronger inflation and potentially long-lasting damage to supply chains, the OECD said.

The organization slashed its outlook for global growth this year to 3% from the 4.5% it predicted in December and doubled its inflation projection to nearly 9% for its 38 member countries, according to forecasts released on Wednesday in Paris. In 2023, it expects growth to slow to 2.8%.

The price of war could be “even higher,” it warned, describing a long list of risks ranging from an abrupt cut-off of Russian supply in Europe to vulnerabilities on financial markets from high debt and elevated asset prices.

The early effects of surging prices have already forced central banks to tighten monetary policy, with the US Federal Reserve for example having just raised interest rates at a quickened pace of 50 basis points last month. Meanwhile governments are rethinking spending plans as they attempt to shelter households.

While the OECD said it’s warranted for all monetary authorities to pare back stimulus, it urged caution particularly in the euro area, where surging prices mainly reflect supply pressures.

“Central banks will have to conduct a delicate balancing act between keeping inflation under control and maintaining the post-pandemic economic rebound, especially where the recovery is not yet complete,” the organization said.

 

[    ] Still, the organization is cautious about whether the global economy is on the brink of stagflation despite similarities with the oil shock of the 1970s.

Compared to that time, major economies are less energy intensive, central banks have more robust frameworks and independence, and consumers have a stock of excess savings leftover from the Covid pandemic, it said.

“Nonetheless, there are clear risks that growth could slow more sharply than expected and inflationary pressures could intensify further,” the OECD said.

Here are further highlights from the report:

  • Europe is one of the regions most at risk should the war in Ukraine drag on or escalate, as its economies are struggling to wean themselves off Russian fuel
  • Low-income economies are also at risk due to surging prices of basic food and energy
  • Sharp increases in rates could slow growth more than expected
  • China’s Covid Zero policy continues to weigh on the global outlook

 

 

 

SECRETIVE SURVEILLANCE: Exclusiv e Report by Thomas Brewster | Forbes

The legality of using data-collection companies to snoop on individuals stems from the All Writs Act of 1789, which allows the government to ask for “non-burdensome” assistance from entities not directly related to a given investigation.
The law kicked up controversy in 2015 when the FBI tried, and ultimately failed, to use it to force Apple to open an iPhone belonging to a suspect in the San Bernardino mass shooting.
Privacy activists at the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and the Electronic Frontier Foundation have argued that All Writs Act orders don’t get the same legal or public scrutiny as search warrants and wiretaps, and are “routinely” filed under seal.

EXCLUSIVE: U.S. Government Ordered Travel Companies To Spy On Russian Hacker For Years And Report His Whereabouts Every Week

Header_Surveillance_1x1

A Forbes legal challenge forces the unsealing of documents that reveal for the first time the scope of secretive surveillance orders that track the movements of individuals around the globe. Critics say the government isn’t doing enough to inform the public about the unusual initiative, which involves multi-billion dollar private companies.

"In 2015, the U.S. Secret Service was on the hunt for Aleksei Burkov, an infamous Russian hacker suspected of facilitating the theft of $20 million from stolen credit cards on the Cardplanet website. The methods the agency used to pursue him, revealed for the first time as a result of a Forbes legal challenge, show how the U.S. government was able to strongarm two data companies into spying on him for two years based on the authority of a 233-year-old law and to issue weekly reports on his whereabouts. The government has never disclosed how many other individuals could be under such prolonged and unconventional surveillance.

The two companies, Sabre in the U.S. and Travelport in the U.K., were perfect suppliers to American law enforcement because of the business they’re in. For decades, they’ve been collecting and storing information about international tourists in a so-called global distribution system. GDSs are essentially hubs of information that make travel bookings easy between airlines, cruise providers, car rental companies and hoteliers. The two companies dominate the industry outside Russia and China, the only other competitor being Spain’s Amadeus. U.S. law enforcement saw the value in the data used by Sabre and Travelport because Moscow has no extradition agreement with Washington, meaning the only way they could arrest Burkov would be to nab him when he left Russia. . .

[    ] “Too much about these types of warrants is hidden from the public,” said Jennifer Granick, surveillance and cybersecurity counsel at the ACLU. Collecting information about future travel that may have nothing to do with past criminal offenses “is particularly invasive and susceptible to abuse,” Granick said. “The police are capitalizing on private data collection to obtain revolutionary surveillance powers that are essentially unapproved and unsupervised by democratic processes.” Granick said the public knows next to nothing about how law enforcement uses the powers, how frequently, in what kinds of investigations, anything about the granularity of the data they generate or how the government uses that information. . .

Such surveillance has remained secret over the past decade, locked behind sealed orders. Thanks to lawsuits filed by Forbes, working with attorneys at the Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press and members of the University of Virginia School of Law First Amendment Clinic, the shroud is being lifted, if only partially. The documents ordering Sabre and Travelport to carry out surveillance on Burkov were unsealed last month, after Forbes’ legal challenge. Ongoing petitions to unseal documents related to similar orders in three other jurisdictions were launched in January 2021. The Justice Department has continued to argue that there’s no general right to access All Writs Act orders and that “compelling law enforcement interests demand the continued sealing of those materials.” One court agreed that such orders have “traditionally been kept secret for important policy reasons.”

While critics say it’s an invasive and overly secretive form of spying, to those who know the business, it’s little surprise the U.S. government would want to avail itself of the vast troves of information stored by these travel companies. Together, they have travel data going back half a century, which critics say could provide a detailed picture of an individual’s life. The industry started with Sabre in the 1960s after it was spun off from American Airlines as a modernized version of the company’s huge “passenger name record” databases. Today, the three dominant players are vast enterprises. Sabre is a public company on the NASDAQ with a market cap of $2.5 billion; Amadeus is valued on Spanish stock markets in excess of $25 billion; and Travelport remains a private entity, acquired for $4.4 billion in 2018. Sabre says it processes over 1 billion trips and $120 billion of travel spending every year. Before Covid-19 sent the global travel market spiraling, in 2019 Travelport was handling $79 billion in travel transactions — “more value flowing across our platform than eBay,” according to testimony the company gave to the British government in May 2020 in light of the coronavirus transport crisis. Such is the influence of these businesses that Sabre’s decision to cut off Russian airline Aeroflot in response to the Ukraine invasion reportedly crippled its ability to sell seats. . .

[    ] Joe Herzog, a former executive with both Sabre and Travelport who spent nearly two decades working in the industry, told Forbes that while he was not intimately aware of any government demands for information, technologically it’s “relatively simple” for the companies to cooperate and provide data to law enforcement. “It’s just a question of privacy laws,” Herzog said. Much of the same data could be found across each GDS provider, adding that “there’s a tremendous amount of overlap [in] the datasets with the intelligence information … I’d guess that 90-something percent of all the information in one GDS is accessible by another.”

Amadeus, Sabre and Travelport have counterparts in Russia and China: Sirena-Travel and TravelSky. Both are closely aligned with their respective governments.

Burkov may yet find himself under U.S. surveillance again. In late 2019, despite Russia’s attempts to prevent his transfer, Burkov was extradited from Israel to the U.S. and, after admitting fraud and hacking offenses, in June 2020 he was sentenced to 108 months in prison. In September 2021, however, something strange happened.

He was sent back to Russia. It remains unclear why Burkov was allowed to return to his homeland. The Department of Justice has yet to provide a full explanation. In a March letter to National Security Advisor Jacob Sullivan, Republican members of the House Judiciary, Homeland Security, Intelligence and Foreign Affairs committees demanded an explanation. “The Russian government has a history of using cybercriminals as assets for Russian intelligence services,” the lawmakers warned. “Some former officials have suggested that Burkov may now be working for Russia, against U.S. interests.”

In the U.S., Forbes and its legal partners continue to press U.S. courts to unseal more information on how deep and broad this kind of spying goes."

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasbrewster/2022/06/08/exclusive-us-government-ordered-travel-companies-to-spy-on-russian-hacker-for-years-and-report-his-whereabouts-every-week/

 

RELATED CONTENT

All Writs Act Orders for Assistance From Tech Companies

The map below tracks what we know, based on publicly available documents filed with federal courts, about the government's improper use of the All Writs Act to force Apple and Google to help unlock mobile devices and give law enforcement access to the data stored on them. The information displayed here was compiled by the ACLU and the ACLU of Massachussetts. 

The ACLU expects to learn about additional All Writs Act cases in response to our FOIA requests and we will continually update this map. 

More on what we found

Tuesday, June 07, 2022

THE WORLD BANK LOWERS GLOBAL GROWTH OUTLOOK... Region by Region Declines


World Bank Dims Outlook For Global Economy

“For many countries, recession will be hard to avoid,” said David Malpass, the World Bank’s president

AN UPTICK IN FOLLINA EXPLOITS: Low-Interaction Remote Code Execution

A BUNGLED RESPONSE -- As hacker groups continue to hammer a former Windows zero-day that makes it unusually easy to execute malicious code on target computers, Microsoft is keeping a low profile, refusing even to say if it has plans to patch

Microsoft won’t say if it will patch critical Windows vulnerability under exploit

Slow to act on the code execution bug from the start, company is still in no hurry.

The word ZERO-DAY is hidden amidst a screen filled with ones and zeroes.

". . .Late last week, security firm Proofpoint said that hackers with ties to known nation-state groups were exploiting the remote code execution vulnerability, dubbed Follina. Proofpoint said the attacks were delivered in malicious spam messages sent to fewer than 10 Proofpoint customers in European and local US governments.

Microsoft products are a “target-rich opportunity”

In an email on Monday, the security company added further color, writing:

  • Proofpoint Threat Research has been actively monitoring for use of the Follina vulnerability and we spotted another interesting case on Friday. An email with a RTF file attachment used Follina to ultimately execute a PowerShell script. This script checks for virtualization, steals information from local browsers, mail clients and file services, conducts machine recon and then zips it for exfil via BitsAdmin. While Proofpoint suspects this campaign to be by a state-aligned actor based on both the extensive recon of the Powershell and tight concentration of targeting, we do not currently attribute it to a numbered TA.
  • Proofpoint has observed the use of this vulnerability via Microsoft applications. We are continuing to understand the scope of this vulnerability but at this time it is clear that many opportunities exist to use it across the suite of Microsoft Office products and additionally in Windows applications.
  • Microsoft has released “workarounds” but not a full scale patch. Microsoft products continue to be a target-rich opportunity for threat actors and that will not change in the short term. We continue to release detection and protection in Proofpoint products as we learn more to assist our customers in securing their environments.

Security firm Kaspersky, meanwhile, has also tracked an uptick in Follina exploits, with most hitting the US, followed by Brazil, Mexico, and Russia.

EnlargeKaspersky

"We expect to see more Follina exploitation attempts to gain access to corporate resources, including for ransomware attacks and data breaches," the Kaspersky researchers wrote.

CERT Ukraine also said it was tracking exploits on targets in that country that use email to send a file titled "changes in wages with accruals.docx" to exploit Follina.

The secret to Follina’s popularity: “low interaction RCE”

One reason for the keen interest is that Follina doesn't require the same level of victim interaction that typical malicious document attacks do. Normally, these attacks need the target to open the document and enable the use of macros.

Follina, by contrast, doesn't require the target to open the document, and there's no macro to allow. The simple act of the document appearing in the preview window, even while protected view is turned on, is enough to execute malicious scripts.

"It's more serious because it doesn't matter if macros are disabled and it can be invoked simply through preview," Jake Williams, director of cyber threat intelligence at the security firm Scythe, wrote in a text chat. "It's not zero-click like a 'just delivering it causes the exploit' but the user need not open the document."

Researchers developing an exploit module for the Metasploit hacking framework referred to this behavior as a low-interaction remote code execution. "I was able to test this using both the .docx and rtf formats," one of them wrote. "I was able to gain execution with the RTF file by just previewing the document in Explorer."

A bungled response

The enthusiasm threat actors and defenders have shown for Follina contrasts starkly with Microsoft's low profile. Microsoft was slow to act on the vulnerability from the start. . .

Finally, last Tuesday, Microsoft declared the behavior a vulnerability, giving it the tracker CVE-2022-30190 and a severity rating of 7.8 out of 10. The company didn't issue a patch and instead issued instructions for disabling MSDT.

Microsoft has said very little since then. On Monday, the company declined to say what its plans are.

"Smaller security teams are largely viewing Microsoft's nonchalant approach as a sign that this is 'just another vulnerability'—which it most certainly is not," Williams said. "It's not clear why Microsoft continues to downplay this vulnerability, which is being actively exploited in the wild. It certainly isn't helping security teams."

Without Microsoft to provide proactive warnings, organizations have only themselves to lean on for guidance about the risks and just how exposed they are to this vulnerability. And given the low bar for successful exploits, now would be a good time to make that happen."

 

NEXT COVID WAVE: Experts Eye New Elusive Sub-Variants BA.4 and BA.5 [Updated]

Heirs apparent

BA.4 and BA.5 aren't new; they were first seen causing a massive wave of infection in South Africa in mid-to-late April that peaked in mid-to-late May. BA.4 and BA.5 are often clumped together because they share the same mutations in their spike protein, though they have different mutations elsewhere in their genetic blueprints. The spike protein is the critical protein that SARS-CoV-2 uses to latch onto human cells and, as such, is the prime target of vaccine- and infection-based immune responses.

BA.4 and BA.5 have a lot of unappealing qualities that have experts wary. First, the duo has a clear transmission advantage over BA.2.12.1, according to recent analyses of head-to-head comparisons of BA.4/5 to BA.2.12.1. They are poised to overcome BA.2.12.1 in the US, potentially causing yet another wave. 

 

Next wave —

With BA.2.12.1 now dominant in US, experts eye new subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 [Updated]

New data suggests BA.4, BA.5 are better at evading immune responses than BA.2.12.1.

<div class=__reading__mode__extracted__imagecaption>EnlargeGetty | Thomas Trutschel

GETTING ON TO GET IT ON WITH BOJO: Brit Rebels Now Have A Cause

Yesterday's skewed vote of confidence adds political ammunition

Rebels tell Boris Johnson rules could be changed to allow another challenge

Tobias Ellwood says PM has a lot of work to do, with change of direction needed by October party conference

Boris Johnson in Downing Street on Tuesday morning.

Rebel Conservatives have given Boris Johnson until the party conference to change direction, saying rules could be altered to allow another challenge, as Dominic Raab called for the “democratic result” of the vote to be respected.

Johnson lost the confidence of 41% of his MPs in a vote on his leadership on Monday night, after weeks of anger over lockdown-breaking parties in Downing Street and fears the party’s direction is causing a slump at the polls.

The prime minister will attempt to reassert control of the political agenda this week...

Ellwood told Sky News: “A lot of work to be done. A reshuffle is now required: bring in fresh talent, and actually start to focus on the big issues.

“Let’s do things that appeal to the country and not just to our base – more exciting policies than the privatisation of Channel 4 and bringing back imperial measurements, but a real economic strategy that’s actually going to help tackle the cost of living crisis.”

Asked how long he believed Johnson would remain as prime minister, he added: “I think we’re talking a matter of months, up to party conference [at the beginning of October].

 

[.  ]

The former Tory leader William Hague said Johnson should “turn his mind to getting out” to provide a fresh start for the party. “While Johnson has survived the night, the damage done to his premiership is severe,” he wrote in the Times.

“Words have been said that cannot be retracted, reports published that cannot be erased, and votes have been cast that show a greater level of rejection than any Tory leader has ever endured and survived. Deep inside, he should recognise that, and turn his mind to getting out in a way that spares party and country such agonies and uncertainties.”

 

“This is a government that delivers on what the people of this country care about most,” he will say, citing government achievements on household support and recruitment of police officers.

“Today, I pledge to continue delivering on these priorities. We are on the side of hard-working British people, and we are going to get on with the job.”

REGIME CHANGE IN RUSSIA: A Ukrainian TV Channel

Weaponizing the media takes another all-too-tawdry and tried-too-many-times after former "Servant of The People" television star and media company owner Volodymyr Zeleskiey, a comedian, transformed himself into a performative politician President of the Ukraine.

Russian-language Ukrainian TV channel aims to topple Putin

<div class=__reading__mode__extracted__imagecaption>Ilya Ponomarev funds the channel’s $1m-a-year news operation from the proceeds of his investments. Photograph: Anastasia Taylor-Lind/The Guardian<br>Ilya Ponomarev funds the channel’s $1m-a-year news operation from the proceeds of his investments. Photograph: Anastasia Taylor-Lind/The Guardian</div>

February Morning, founded by former Russian MP Ilya Ponomarev, broadcasts to audience in Russia

In a 19th-century building in the heart of Kyiv, a group of journalists were hard at work. Olga Volkona, a TV presenter, was preparing to interview a military expert. In a nearby room, reporters were posting content to Telegram, YouTube and Facebook. Others were preparing for the launch next week of an online newspaper.

The channel, February Morning, has one ambitious and seemingly impossible goal: to topple Vladimir Putin. Unlike other media outlets operating in Ukraine, it is exclusively aimed at an audience living in Russia. Its 70 staff are Ukrainian and Russian. Some of them work in provincial Russian towns, as part of an undercover network. . .

“I love this idea,” Ponomarev said, pointing to the white-blue-white flag that forms the channel’s live studio backdrop. It is the Russian tricolour “minus the red blood”, he said. It was also the flag of Veliky Novgorod, one of Russia’s oldest cities, famed for its medieval democracy until its takeover by Ivan the Terrible.

Anchor Olga Volkova going live on Outro Fevrale TV station studio in central Kyiv, Ukraine, which was founded by former Duma deputy Illia Ponomariov Photograph: Anastasia Taylor-Lind/The Guardian

The most effective way of ending Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is to bring down the regime in Moscow, Ponomarev said. With Putin in power, there is every prospect the conflict could drag on for years, even decades. “Our job at the end of the day is an uprising of the masses,” he said. “We need individuals to see they are not alone.”

Ponomarev conceded it would be difficult to persuade Russians conditioned by years of state TV propaganda to turn on their government. But he said there were two groups who formed a promising constituency. . .

[.    ]

Maria Gritsenko (right), commissioning editor, and Andrei Duka (left), director, at the Outro Fevrale TV studio in central Kyiv, Ukraine. Photograph: Anastasia Taylor-Lind/The Guardian

The former MP claimed “limited” credit for these mini-attacks, which have featured extensively on February Morning’s media outlet, Rospartizan. The channel gives tips on bomb making and how to thwart Russia’s FSB spy agency by turning off mobile phone location settings. These “small tricks” were taught in the early Putin era at left-faction summer camps, he said. . .

. . .

Ponomarev said he was looking for western sources of funding for his channel. But he said London and Washington were wary of promoting “regime change” in Russia, even though that is what they privately want. The Biden administration is providing Kyiv with $40bn in arms and humanitarian aid. It says it is not trying to remove Putin.

Asked whether he was now a foreign agent in the eyes of the Kremlin, Ponomarev said: “I would be proud if they called me that. Terrorist, extremist, it’s an act of recognition.” He added: “Unfortunately they are really smart. They have ensured there are no visible political figures among leftists and nationalists. We need to offer a credible vision for Russia’s future.”

The channel wants to build a second studio on its balcony, which overlooks central Kyiv and a sky of screeching summer swifts. The news operation costs $1m a year. Ponomarev said he covered running costs himself, from funds accumulated during a successful career as a Silicon Valley investor. His own political views were those of a “left-libertarian anarchist”, he said.

The young rebels plotting in tiny groups against the mighty Russian state were similar to the social revolutionaries of more than a century ago, he said. They fought to bring down the tsar and to give land to the peasants. In February 1917 they succeeded in removing the government – only to see the Bolsheviks and Lenin take over the revolution and seize power.

“Elites in Russia are dissatisfied. But right now they are not scared enough,” said Ponomarev. “They need to see the ghost of 1917.”

 

 

Zelensky Calls for a European Army as He Slams EU Leaders’ Response

      Jan 23, 2026 During the EU Summit yesterday, the EU leaders ...