‘Epic Fury’ has already canceled out Big Beautiful Bill’s tax refunds — even if the Iran war ended today

An analysis released in March 2026 by four economists affiliated with the

Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) found that rising U.S. gasoline prices, driven by geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, are expected to wipe out the financial benefits of larger tax refunds from the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act". 

Stanford Analysis: A study by four economists from the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research highlights that increased costs at the pump are effectively draining the additional disposable income provided by tax returns.