Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Insider trading allegations against Trump: Polymarket and Wall Street in focus

As of Wednesday, there were 355 live prediction markets on Polymarket linked to outcomes in the war, such as the identity of the next leader of Iran, the date of a US-Iran nuclear deal and when Iran will launch military action against Israel.
  • The independent on-chain analyst known as Andrew 10 GWEI told Al Jazeera one of the most “striking” recent examples of suspicious betting was his discovery of 38 accounts that he believes belong to one person and netted more than $2m betting correctly on the February 28 strikes.

Each of the accounts placed from four to 10 bets with a nearly 100 percent success rate, according to research Andrew shared on X. 

  • Also noteworthy was the fact that the user began preparing accounts with cryptocurrency transfers on February 22 before bets were placed on February 27 between 11:00 and 12:00 GMT on the chance of a February 28 strike.
$580m Bet On Oil Prices Placed 15 Minutes Before Trump’s Iran Post | 10 News

Nobel laureate Paul Krugman calls it ‘treason’: $580 million in suspicious oil futures traded minutes before Trump’s Iran reversal

March 24, 2026, 2:26 PM ET
Two People Faces Talking Discussion Communication Stock Market Insider 3d Illustration
"Everyone—every analyst, every oil trader—has been questioning downward pressure on prices," 
---analyst Rory Johnston told Fortune.iQoncept

Large Polymarket, Wall Street bets on Trump’s war news under scrutiny

Well-timed trades regarding Iran war news this week lead critics to argue White House may be engaged in insider trading.

Published On 25 Mar 2026 25 Mar 2026 
"Andrew 10 GWEI" (often seen on X/Twitter as @Andrey_10gwei) is an independent on-chain analyst known for investigating suspicious crypto transactions, large-scale token dumps, and insider trading patterns
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Key highlights regarding their work include:
  • Polymarket Insider Investigation (March 2026): Andrew 10 GWEI identified 38 accounts, likely managed by a single person, that netted over $2 million by betting correctly on the February 28 US-Israeli strikes (Iran conflict). The investigation found that the user prepared the accounts with crypto transfers as early as February 22, 2026, and placed bets immediately before the strikes, prompting concerns of insider knowledge.

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