Friday, October 21, 2022

BEZOS: Drumbeat of Concern Amazon founder Jeff Bezos has added his voice to the chorus of voices warning of hardship ahead for the US economy.

www.bbc.com

Amazon's Jeff Bezos in economy warning: 'Batten down hatches'

By Natalie Sherman
3 - 4 minutes

Jeff BezosImage source, Getty Images

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos has added his voice to the chorus of voices warning of hardship ahead for the US economy.

On social media, the billionaire wrote that the economy was sending a signal to "batten down the hatches".

Growth in the US has already contracted for two quarters in a row, a milestone that in many countries - though not the US - is considered a recession.

As the US central bank raises interest rates to fight rising prices, many economists expect further slowdown.

The drumbeat of concern recently forced US President Joe Biden to address the issue.

In an interview last week, he said "I don't think there will be a recession. If it is, it'll be a very slight recession".

In the US, a panel of economists is charged with declaring the formal start and end of recessions. They use a number of indicators, in addition to gross domestic product in making the determination.

With midterm elections looming in November, Mr Biden has tried to make the case that the slowdown in economic activity is a healthy shift from the growth surge that followed the pandemic lockdowns.

Job creation remains robust, unemployment rates low, and households finances relatively healthy.

But as inflation has remained much higher than the 2% goal - hitting 8.2% last month - hopes that authorities will be able to get the issue under control without triggering a potentially severe slowdown have waned.

"We have got to get inflation behind us. I wish there were a painless way to do that. There isn't," Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last month.

The US housing sector - which accounts for about 15% of the economy by some estimates - has already slowed sharply, as borrowing costs approach 7% - the highest rate since 2002, prompting job cuts at banks and other property firms.

In updates to investors in recent days, bosses at the biggest US banks warned of darker days ahead.

"In my conversations with CEOs, they tell me they are rethinking business opportunities and would like to see more certainty before committing to longer term plans," Goldman Sachs boss David Solomon said.

"We're tightening economic conditions very, very quickly. And when you tighten economic conditions it has an impact on these things"

Jamie Dimon at JP Morgan, who has previously warned of a "hurricane" ahead, said consumers would likely run through the cushion in their bank accounts by the middle of next year.

Amazon, which will update investors later this month, has also been grappling with a slowdown in its e-commerce business. It has slowed hiring and said it is working to cut expenses.

Mr Bezos stepped down as Amazon chief executive last year but remains chairman of its board. He has been critical of the president's economic policies in the past, faulting Mr Biden for being disingenuous about the forces driving prices higher.

He shared a video of Mr Solomon discussing the need to be cautious, given the economic uncertainties.

"Yep the probabilities in this economy tell you to batten down the hatches," Mr Bezos wrote.

VIDEOS

 

Bezos issues dire warning for US economy from www.thestreet.com
Posted: 39 minutes ago

 

Bezos issues dire warning for US economy from www.thestreet.com
Posted: 6 days ago

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NOURIEL ROUBINI: Things are going to get much worse

 

Nouriel Roubini is known for his bearish prognostications. And unfortunately, he still doesn't see any good news on the horizon. In fact, things are going to get much worse, says the famous economist and author of the new book “ MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, And How to Survive Them.” He believes that due to a rolling series of supply shocks, some of which are still unfolding, we'll have a severe downturn before we get relief from inflation. Unlike the 1970s he says, high levels of private sector debt will make it harder to fight higher prices, and that central banks will reverse course as things start to break in financial markets. This transcript has been lightly edited for clarity. 

Omny Studio: Nouriel Roubini Predicts a Crisis 'Wo...

finance.yahoo.com

Nouriel Roubini: 'We're headed towards disaster' if we ignore these risks

Dylan Croll
3 minutes


In October 2006, Nouriel Roubini predicted that a housing crash in the U.S. could trigger a recession and "hard landing" around the world. The economist, known as "Dr. Doom," continued to warn of impending worldwide threats during the following decade and a half.

In an interview with Yahoo Finance's editor-in-chief on Monday for the All Markets Summit, Roubini outlined imminent risks around the globe that he also details in his new book, "MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, And How to Survive Them." These dangers include what he calls a cold war between the U.S. and China that could turn hot; inflation combined with debt instability; and climate change; among other perils.

"Right now, we’re facing major mega threats: monetary, social, political, geopolitical, environmental, health, trade, and technology,” Roubini said. “Unless we address them, we’re headed towards disaster.”

Nouriel Roubini, Chairman of Roubini Macro Associates LLC and Professor of Economics, Stern School of Business, New York University, speaks during the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., May 3, 2017. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson

Nouriel Roubini, Chairman of Roubini Macro Associates LLC and Professor of Economics, Stern School of Business, New York University, speaks during the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., May 3, 2017. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson

The economist spoke at length about the perils of inflation, which soared 8.2% year-over-year in September — far above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The inflationary environment has stirred up memories of the so-called Great Inflation of the 1970s, which led to inflation peaking at 14% in 1980. The so-called Great Moderation ensued, with relatively stable prices in the following decades.

“In the book, what I find out is that the era of great moderation, where growth was okay, inflation low, 2%, is over,” Roubini told Yahoo Finance on Monday. “Now we’re going to an era of what I call great stagflationary [a stagnant economy combined with inflation] and debt instability and crisis.”

Due to his often bleak outlook, Roubini is also known as “Dr. Doom.” But Roubini says his book is a call to action against serious threats to the world.

“I usually say that I’m Dr. Realist, not Dr. Doom,” Roubini remarked. “I think warning about the risk is very important because until now we’ve been kicking the can down the road.”

Dylan Croll is a reporter and researcher at Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter at @CrollonPatrol.

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3 hours ago · Nouriel Roubini is a Turkish-born Iranian-American economist. He is Professor Emeritus (2021-present) and was Professor of Economics (1995-2021) at the ...
Born: March 29, 1958 (age 64); Istanbul, Turkey
School or tradition: New Keynesian economics
Nationality: American
Alma mater: Bocconi University (B.A. 1982); Harvard University (Ph.D. 1988)
1 day ago · Nouriel Roubini says real estate is a good investment amid high inflation, but climate change has him worried about Florida and Texas and ...

 



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www.bloomberg.com

Transcript: Nouriel Roubini Predicts a Crisis 'Worse' Than the 1970s


 

Tracy Alloway, Joe Weisenthal
2 minutes

Nouriel Roubini, chief executive officer of Roubini Macro Associates Inc., during a panel session at the Qatar Economic Forum (QEF) in Doha, Qatar, on Tuesday, June 21, 2022. The second annual Qatar Economic Forum convenes global business leaders and heads of state to tackle some of the world's most pressing challenges, through the lens of the Middle East.

Nouriel Roubini, chief executive officer of Roubini Macro Associates Inc., during a panel session at the Qatar Economic Forum (QEF) in Doha, Qatar, on Tuesday, June 21, 2022. The second annual Qatar Economic Forum convenes global business leaders and heads of state to tackle some of the world's most pressing challenges, through the lens of the Middle East.Photographer: Christopher Pike/Bloomberg


SAMPLE CONTENT 



 
 
 
LONGER TERM THEMATIC RESEARCH

MENA: Higher Oil Prices Help Economic Momentum for Some

October 10, 2022 / Mike Gallagher
High oil prices will likely endure for the coming years, as years of underinvestment means that new oil production will remain slow. This is key to our MENA Outlook.

Details of U.S. GDP Revisions Disappoint

September 29, 2022 / Dave Sloan
SHORTER TERM TACTICAL RESEARCH

80% Down for this year: SnapChat Plunges

 



13 hours ago · Snap shares have lost over three-quarters of their value this year and are down more than 30% since July, when the company reported second- ...
SNAP | Complete Snap Inc. stock news by MarketWatch. View real-time stock prices and stock quotes for a full financial overview.
Market Cap: $17.91B
Public Float: 1.03B
52 Week Range: 9.34 - 75.95
Open: $10.90
10.79 -0.07 (0.64%)
After hours: 7.95 -2.84 (26.32%) SNAP(NYSE)
Oct 20, 4:05 PM EDT · Currency in USD · Disclaimer


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www.aljazeera.com

Snap shares tank 25% as inflation hits ad spend

Al Jazeera
3 - 4 minutes

Snap lost $4bn of its market cap in after-hours trading as it posted its slowest revenue growth in five years.

The owner of photo-messaging app Snapchat, Snap Inc, has posted its slowest revenue growth since going public five years ago as advertisers cut spending amid rising inflation and the war in Ukraine.

Shares of Snap dropped 25 percent in after-hours trading on Thursday.


Snap is the first of the big tech firms to report quarterly earnings and the results cast a shadow for other platforms that rely on advertising revenue such as Facebook owner Meta Platforms Inc, Alphabet’s Google and Pinterest, which report their results next week.

Snap’s poor results knocked more than $4bn off its market capitalisation in trading after the bell.

Shares of other companies that sell digital advertising also dropped, with Meta Platforms down more than 4 percent, Alphabet down 2.7 percent and Pinterest losing nearly 8 percent. Altogether the sell-off in late trading erased more than $50bn in stock market value from internet advertisement companies.

In a letter to investors, Snap said inflation caused some advertisers to reduce their marketing budgets.

“We expect that the operating environment will continue to be challenging in the months ahead,” the company said.

The company said its internal forecast estimates that revenue for the fourth quarter, which includes the holiday season when advertisers ramp up activity, will be flat from the previous year. The ability to forecast future quarters remains challenging, Snap said.

Revenue for the third quarter, which ended September 30, was $1.13bn, an increase of 6 percent from the same quarter in the previous year. The figure narrowly missed analysts’ expectations of $1.14bn, according to IBES (Institutional Brokers’ Estimate System) data from Refinitiv.

Snap announced in August it would lay off 20 percent of all employees and discontinue projects, such as gaming and a flying camera drone, to cut costs and steel itself against a deteriorating economy.

The Santa Monica, California-based company said it would refocus on growing its user base, diversifying its revenue sources and investing in augmented reality technologies, which overlay computerised images onto the real world.

Daily active users on Snapchat rose 19 percent year-over-year to 363 million during the quarter.

Snap said advertising revenue has historically followed the growth and engagement of its user base and “we remain optimistic about our long-term opportunity”.

It added it expects Snapchat daily active users to grow to 375 million in the fourth quarter.

Adjusted earnings per share were 8 cents during the third quarter, beating analyst expectations of breakeven.

Snap on Thursday also announced a share buyback program of up to $500m." 

www.axios.com

Snap stock plunges amid record slow revenue growth

Sara Fischer
4 - 5 minutes

Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

Shares in Snap Inc. plummeted more than 20% Thursday after the camera app reported its slowest-ever quarter for revenue growth since going public in 2017. It also declined to provide revenue or earnings guidance for the fourth quarter, given uncertainty in the economy.

Why it matters: Wall Street was looking to Snap to deliver good news about the broader ad market. The company's share price had already declined more than 75% this year going into earnings.

Details: In a letter to investors, Snap said its business "continued to face significant headwinds in the third quarter" but that it remains bullish on its strategy thanks to previously-announced plans to cut costs and prioritize monetization.

  • Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, which is typically Snap's most lucrative thanks to holiday season ad sales, the company said it's "highly likely" that year-over-year revenue growth will decelerate. . . READ MORE  

 

www.marketwatch.com

Snap stock option traders ready for a 20% post-earnings move, but that's less than usual

Tomi Kilgore
1 minute

Options traders are ready for a big move in Snap Inc.'s stock on the day after the social media company reports third-quarter results, but it's actually less than the average post-earnings move. Snap is slated to report earnings after Thursday's closing bell. An options strategy known as a straddle, which is a pure volatility play that includes buying bullish (call) and bearish (puts) with the same at-the-month strikes, with expiry Friday, is currently priced for a one-day post earnings move of about 19.7% in either direction on Friday, according to FactSet data. Based on current prices, that means the stock would have...

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