Sunday, October 23, 2022

Saudi King MBS advised not to travel ...

The Arab League Summit in Algeria represents the first time the regional body has met since the coronavirus pandemic took hold across the world.

 



 

The Arab League, founded in 1945, represents 22 nations across the Mideast and North Africa, though Syria has been suspended amid its long-running war. While unified in the call for the Palestinians to have an independent state, the body has otherwise been largely fractious and unable to enforce its mandates.

✓ The Future Investment Initiative, the crown prince's annual summit drawing global investors to the kingdom, begins Tuesday..Prince Mohammed has attended sessions in previous years.


 

✓ A worsening global economic outlook and oil market volatility has raised the stakes for the government in pursuing Vision 2030, which includes a $500 billion project to build a huge, high-tech economic zone on the Red Sea called NEOM eventually meant to house 9 million people.

www.dailysabah.com

US execs head to Saudi Arabia for flagship forum despite tensions 




Reuters
5 - 6 minutes

"A public spat between the United States and Saudi Arabia will not deter top Wall Street executives and U.S. business leaders from a flagship investment event starting on Tuesday where the kingdom will seek deals to reduce its economy’s reliance on oil.


 

President Joe Biden has vowed "consequences" for U.S.-Saudi ties over the OPEC+ alliance's decision this month to cut oil output targets, which Riyadh defended as serving market stability.

✓ The dispute was the latest shadow to be cast over the annual Future Investment Initiative (FII), which was hit by a Western boycott over the 2018 murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and by the pandemic in 2020, leaving it a far cry from the 2017 inaugural event that Riyadh billed as "Davos in the Desert."

FII recovered in 2019 after the uproar over Khashoggi's killing by Saudi agents, drawing big names from financial, defense and energy firms with strategic interests in the world's top oil exporter, but garnered relatively meager foreign inflows.

More than 400 U.S. delegates are expected to attend this week, Richard Attias, CEO of the FII Institute, told Reuters, adding this was the largest representation of a foreign country.

 

✓This year's edition, running Oct. 25-27, includes JP Morgan boss Jamie Dimon, Pimco Vice Chairperson John Studzinski and a BNY Mellon executive as speakers, and they still plan to go, spokespeople for the companies told Reuters.

✓ Top executives from Goldman Sachs, Blackstone, Bridgewater Associates, Boeing and Franklin Templeton are on the agenda. Goldman Sachs declined to comment, while the rest did not respond.

JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs made nearly $77 million and $42 million respectively in investment banking fees in Saudi Arabia last year, Refinitiv data showed. JPM remains at the top of the league table in 2022 with over $39 million so far.

"For the most part, I do not see U.S. companies actively avoiding Saudi Arabia due to recent political tensions," said Adel Hamaizia, managing director at Highbridge Advisory and a visiting fellow at Harvard University.

"U.S. companies will be an important partner to Saudi's investment and growth plans, in traditional sectors, but also in 'newer' fields including tourism, entertainment, EV production, technology and a nascent local defense industry," Hamaizia said.

The FII is a showcase for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's (MBS) Vision 2030 development plan to wean the economy off oil by creating new industries that also generate jobs for millions of Saudis, and to lure foreign capital and talent.

FDI flat

Foreign direct investment still lags behind targets, though there has been movement in new sectors as the kingdom opens up. As Boeing netted an $80 million defense contract last year, FedEx announced a $400 million 10-year investment plan in the country, the Arab world's biggest economy.

✓ At 15.3 billion riyals ($4.07 billion), inward FDI for the first half of the year was about a fifth of the $19.3 billion secured in 2021, which had included a $12.4 billion investment for Aramco's oil pipeline infrastructure.

It is well below the 2030 target of $100 billion a year under a national strategy aiming for foreign direct investment equaling almost 6% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030.

Uncertainty lingers around the regulatory and tax environment as well as high operational costs and lack of a skilled local workforce, even after Riyadh handed companies an ultimatum to locate regional headquarters in the kingdom by 2024 or lose out on lucrative government contracts.

"FDI flows have remained stubbornly flat and low, under 1% of GDP, and some of the notable names that have invested have had only modest success, even with government backing," said Justin Alexander, director of Khalij Economics and Gulf analyst at GlobalSource Partners.

✓ This has left the Saudi government and the Public Investment Fund to try to deliver on the crown prince's diversification promises, aided by a petrodollar windfall.

A worsening global economic outlook and oil market volatility has raised the stakes for the government in pursuing Vision 2030, which includes a $500 billion project to build a huge, high-tech economic zone on the Red Sea called NEOM eventually meant to house 9 million people.

"The government cannot afford to drive economic development indefinitely but for the time being there is no real alternative as domestic businesses are unfit to play that role, and FDI continues to disappoint," said Neil Quilliam, associate fellow at Chatham House.

english.alaraby.co.uk

Saudi Arabia's MbS 'to skip Algeria talks on doctor advice' 



The New Arab Staff & Agencies
4 - 5 minutes

"Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will reportedly not be attending an upcoming Arab summit in Algeria after his doctors advised him not to travel.

Saudi Arabia's powerful 37-year-old crown prince will not attend an upcoming summit in Algeria after his doctors advised him not to travel, the Algerian presidency said early Sunday.


Saudi Arabia offered no immediate acknowledgment of the comments by Algeria about the condition of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has quickly risen to power under his 86-year-old father King Salman. Much of the focus on the Al Saud royal family in recent years has been on King Salman's health, with analysts suggesting the prince could rule the OPEC-leading nation for decades after ascending to the throne.

The kingdom's government did not respond to requests for comment from The Associated Press about the prince, whose health hasn't previously prevented him from traveling. . .

✓ His rise to power, however, has seen the kingdom undergo rapid changes, like allowing women to drive and opening movie theaters while loosening the grip of ultraconservatives in the kingdom. However, the prince also engaged in a corruption crackdown that turned a luxury hotel in Riyadh into a prison for powerbrokers in the kingdom who could have challenged his rule. He's also led an internationally criticized Saudi military campaign in a ruinous war in Yemen that rages even today in the Arab world's poorest country.

Hmmm. . .Recently, the prince has come under intense US criticism over Saudi Arabia leading OPEC and allied nations to agree to an oil production cut of 2 million barrels per day. 

✓  The Future Investment Initiative, the crown prince's annual summit drawing global investors to the kingdom, begins Tuesday amid that US pressure. Prince Mohammed has attended sessions in previous years.

 

Top stories
Sep 27, 2022 · The crown prince, known by his initials MBS, previously served as deputy prime minister as well as defence minister. He is being replaced as ...
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Sep 27, 2022 · The crown prince, known as MbS, is promoted from defence minister and has been the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil ...

www.aljazeera.com

Saudi crown prince ‘not attending Arab summit on doctors’ advice’

Al Jazeera
3 - 4 minutes

Algeria’s presidency says Prince Mohammed will not be attending the upcoming Arab League summit after his doctors advised him not to travel.

"Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will not attend an upcoming Arab summit in Algeria in compliance with doctors’ recommendations to avoid travel, the Algerian presidency has said.

Saudi Arabia offered no immediate acknowledgement of the comments on Saturday by Algeria about the condition of Prince Mohammed, who has quickly risen to power under his 86-year-old father King Salman.

Statements carried in Arabic and French on the Algeria Press Service late on Saturday referred to a statement from the office of President Abdelmadjid Tebboune about a telephone call between him and Prince Mohammed.

In the call, Prince Mohammed “apologised for not being able to participate in the Arab Summit to be held on November 1 in Algiers, in accordance with the recommendations of doctors who advise him not to travel”, the statement read.

“For his part, Mr President said he understood the situation and regretted the impediment of the Crown Prince, His Highness the Emir Mohammed Bin Salman, expressing his wishes for his health and well-being.”

A statement on the state-run Saudi Press Agency acknowledged a call between Tebboune and the prince but offered no word on the doctors’ advice. It just said the call focused on “the aspects of bilateral relations between the two fraternal countries” and possible joint cooperation.

The Arab League Summit in Algeria represents the first time the regional body has met since the COVID-19 pandemic took hold across the world.

The Arab League, founded in 1945, represents 22 nations across the Middle East and North Africa, though Syria has been suspended amid its long-running war. While unified in the call for the Palestinians to have an independent state, the body has otherwise been largely fractious and unable to enforce its mandates.

Prince Mohammed came to power in 2015 as deputy crown prince, then became crown prince some two years later after King Salman removed Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, a once-powerful figure as head of Saudi Arabia’s counterterrorism efforts and a close ally of the United States.

His rise to power has seen the kingdom undergo rapid changes, like allowing women to drive and opening movie theatres while loosening the grip of ultraconservatives. He also launched a purported corruption crackdown that targeted the richest men in the kingdom, and led an internationally criticised Arab coalition that staged a military campaign in Yemen.

US intelligence services linked Prince Mohammed to the 2018 killing and dismemberment of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, a critic of the prince’s policies. The kingdom has denied the prince was involved, though its prosecution of the government squad behind Khashoggi’s slaying has been held behind closed doors."

Source: News Agencies



TRUMPKINS WILD-AND-CRAZY ARIZONA TRIFECTA: Trick --or--Treat Time!

 “Americans need to understand how the legitimacy of a previous election – and in some ways, the entire electoral process – has for the first time in modern history, been questioned by candidates for the very positions that will run the next elections,” Ian Vandewalker, a senior counsel for the Democracy program at the Brennan Center for Justice, told the Guardian.

(Donald Trump at a rally with Kari Lake in Mesa, Arizona earlier this month. Lake refused to say whether she would accept the result of the election if she lost. Photograph: Brian Snyder/Reuters)


 


✓  Disinformation and conspiracy theories are already affecting election administration, but Americans should be able to rely on election officials to make elections fair and accessible, and guarantee that they reflect the will of the people,” said Vandewalker of the Brennan Center

Arizona’s Lake and Finchem have sparked strong fears as they continue to trumpet Trump’s erroneous claims about major voting fraud in 2020. Both according to recent polls have real shots of winning the races.


Hamadeh, the Republican candidate for attorney general, has denied the results of the 2020 election and has focused his campaign ironically on “election protection” to “rebuild the confidence of our elections by prosecuting election fraud to the fullest extent of the law”.

Finchem has shown no regrets about promoting falsehoods about the 2020 election or Trump’s role on January 6. On that day this year, he brazenly and falsely tweeted that the “real insurrection” was that Democrats in his state “rigged the vote in Arizona with tens of thousands of fraudulent votes”.

During a televised debate last month with his Democratic rival Adrian Fontes, Finchem revealed he had been interviewed by the justice department and the House select committee investigating the Trump-fueled insurrection as a “witness not as a suspect”.



Meanwhile, Lake’s rhetorical falsehoods about Trump’s loss to Biden have gone on for months. She went further this month during a CNN appearance by refusing three times to say whether she would accept the midterm results should she lose.


During a February CPAC conference in Florida, Lake said: “We know that if we have another election that is stolen from us, we’re going to lose this country forever.” Then, during the primary campaign which she won in August, Lake told journalists that if she had been governor before she would not have certified the state’s electoral results.

 

✓ “Deep down, I think we all know this illegitimate fool in the White House – I feel sorry for him – didn’t win,” she told the New York Times in August.


Lake has asked her Twitter followers if they would “be willing to take a shift watching a dropbox to catch potential ballot mules,” as election deniers have ratcheted up false charges about their safety.

“It’s a perfectly safe method of voting and arguably safer than voting by mail because it removes the post office intermediary,” said Maricopa county recorder Stephen Richer, who helps oversee the elections for the state’s largest county.

“For election administrators in Arizona, it’s an endless game of conspiracy theory Whac-A-Mole,” Richer added. “For election denying candidates, the truth doesn’t matter. They just have to keep the game going–to fundraise, to stoke passion and energy, and, most of all, to show loyalty to former president Trump.”

Bill Gates, the GOP chairman of the Maricopa board of supervisors, foresees more election disputes.

“There is a movement by election deniers. It’s the lawsuits and the harassing public record requests,” he said, which he noted have accelerated as early voting neared in mid October.

Gates’ fears are underscored by a lawsuit that Lake and Finchem filed this year to get rid of all voting machines that Trump ally and multimillionaire Mike Lindell underwrote and that is now on appeal to Arizona’s court of appeals after it was rejected by a lower court.

“We’ve requested sanctions against Finchem and Lake. There was no basis in law or fact to bring that lawsuit.”

www.theguardian.com

The ‘election-denier trifecta’: alarm over Trumpists’ efforts to win key posts 



Peter Stone
13 - 16 minutes

Call it Donald Trump’s election denier trifecta on this year’s ballot.

"In Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania, where Joe Biden beat then president Trump in 2020, several Republican candidates who have loudly echoed Trump’s false claims that the election was stolen are trying to win jobs as secretary of state, attorney general or governor in November.

The distinct prospect of some winning top state posts has triggered alarms from election watchdogs, Democrats and some GOP officials, who also worry about what could happen during the 2024 presidential election – especially if Trump is the nominee.


✓ Prominent election deniers Kari Lake, a former Fox News anchor, and Mark Finchem, a state legislator, are vying to become Arizona’s next governor and secretary of state respectively. Lesser known is Abraham Hamadeh, the GOP candidate for attorney general, who reportedly boasted about committing voter fraud in 2008.


 

Michigan’s conspiracy-pushing candidates include the far-right lawyer Matthew DePerno for attorney general, and part-time community college instructor Kristina Karamo for secretary of state. Trump-backed Tudor Dixon is vying for the governor’s seat.

And in Pennsylvania, state Senator Doug Mastriano who was a key Trump ally scheming to block Biden’s win hopes to become governor, an office that, unlike certain states, has special power to name the secretary of state.

Election officials and watchdogs see these election deniers as part of a larger national phenomenon of about 290 candidates running for state and federal positions who have denied the 2020 presidential election results, as the Washington Post reported.

✓ The secretary of state positions, which twelve election deniers are seeking, pose particular concern. If Karamo, Finchem or Mastriano – who can choose his secretary of state – triumph – at least one prominent purveyor of Trump’s falsehoods would play crucial roles overseeing election procedures for a state that could be pivotal in determining the outcome of the next presidential contest.

Should Mastriano take office, for example, he could reverse long-held voting standards by following through on a vow to decertify voting machines in counties where he suspects voting results were rigged.


Should Finchem win, he could repeat his moves in 2020: push to have Biden’s win decertified in three counties, though Trump lost the state by almost 10,000 votes, as a partisan recount reaffirmed, with no legal mechanism for decertification.

Coupled with the veto power of a gubernatorial seat, and the legal powers of the attorney general, these pyramids of election deniers could create election havoc and spur new voting conspiracies with an eye to putting the GOP presidential candidate in the White House.

“Americans need to understand how the legitimacy of a previous election – and in some ways, the entire electoral process – has for the first time in modern history, been questioned by candidates for the very positions that will run the next elections,” Ian Vandewalker, a senior counsel for the Democracy program at the Brennan Center for Justice, told the Guardian.


While several states could elect election deniers to their top posts, Finchem, DePerno and Mastriano stand out: the trio were either in DC for Trump’s January 6 rally before his supporters attacked the Capitol, or met Trump officials that day.

✓ The three have sparked a mix of congressional, justice department, and state scrutiny by investigators. Even under the federal government’s eye, they have continued to push conspiracy theories at home, fueling further denialism, a barrage of lawsuits to curb voting rights, and drives to aggressively monitor polls and hire poll workers.

✓ Last month, America First Legal, a group founded by former Trump senior adviser Stephen Miller and Trump’s ex-chief of staff Mark Meadows, filed lawsuits in two Pennsylvania counties to curb the use of ballot drop boxes, which have also come under attack from conservatives in Arizona who have begun surveilling these boxes.


✓ The Trump backed Conservative Partnership Institute, which boasts Meadows and lawyer Cleta Mitchell who runs its “election integrity network” after helping Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 results, has spent months recruiting poll workers and poll watchers in these three states and others, spurring potential voter intimidation concerns.

✓ Further, the America Project, which was founded by multimillionaire Patrick Byrne and retired Lt Gen Michael Flynn, who met Trump at the White House on 18 December 2020, where schemes to overturn the election were bandied about, has begun a seven-figure drive to train “election reform activists” in the three states and five others.

Election analysts and officials warn of rising threats they are facing from disgruntled workers and outside disruptors. And veteran election officials and watchdog groups say they’re worried about the wave of dangerous claims by election deniers running for office and their allies.

“Poll-watchers and election observers play an important role in safeguarding the integrity of elections, so it’s important that those positions not be misused to intentionally disrupt or prevent registered voters from voting,” Al Schmidt, a former Republican election commissioner in Philadelphia who oversaw elections for a decade, told the Guardian.

Schmidt, who now leads the Committee of Seventy, a non-partisan group working to strengthen democracy, added: “There is a very real danger when election officials are seen as the enemy or the opposition. The mindset of these election denialist groups is a concern because of the behavior it can lead to. As we’ve seen, it’s led to threats of violence and motivated people to try to physically disrupt the casting and counting of votes.”

Election watchdogs are troubled about what would happen should some election deniers win their races next month, or contest the results if they clearly lose.


Arizona’s Lake and Finchem have sparked strong fears as they continue to trumpet Trump’s erroneous claims about major voting fraud in 2020. Both according to recent polls have real shots of winning the races.

Hamadeh, the Republican candidate for attorney general, has denied the results of the 2020 election and has focused his campaign ironically on “election protection” to “rebuild the confidence of our elections by prosecuting election fraud to the fullest extent of the law”.

Finchem has shown no regrets about promoting falsehoods about the 2020 election or Trump’s role on January 6. On that day this year, he brazenly and falsely tweeted that the “real insurrection” was that Democrats in his state “rigged the vote in Arizona with tens of thousands of fraudulent votes”.

During a televised debate last month with his Democratic rival Adrian Fontes, Finchem revealed he had been interviewed by the justice department and the House select committee investigating the Trump-fueled insurrection as a “witness not as a suspect”.

Meanwhile, Lake’s rhetorical falsehoods about Trump’s loss to Biden have gone on for months. She went further this month during a CNN appearance by refusing three times to say whether she would accept the midterm results should she lose.


 

During a February CPAC conference in Florida, Lake said: “We know that if we have another election that is stolen from us, we’re going to lose this country forever.” Then, during the primary campaign which she won in August, Lake told journalists that if she had been governor before she would not have certified the state’s electoral results.

“Deep down, I think we all know this illegitimate fool in the White House – I feel sorry for him – didn’t win,” she told the New York Times in August.

Lake has asked her Twitter followers if they would “be willing to take a shift watching a dropbox to catch potential ballot mules,” as election deniers have ratcheted up false charges about their safety.

“It’s a perfectly safe method of voting and arguably safer than voting by mail because it removes the post office intermediary,” said Maricopa county recorder Stephen Richer, who helps oversee the elections for the state’s largest county.


“For election administrators in Arizona, it’s an endless game of conspiracy theory Whac-A-Mole,” Richer added. “For election denying candidates, the truth doesn’t matter. They just have to keep the game going–to fundraise, to stoke passion and energy, and, most of all, to show loyalty to former president Trump.”

Bill Gates, the GOP chairman of the Maricopa board of supervisors, foresees more election disputes.

“There is a movement by election deniers. It’s the lawsuits and the harassing public record requests,” he said, which he noted have accelerated as early voting neared in mid October.

Gates’ fears are underscored by a lawsuit that Lake and Finchem filed this year to get rid of all voting machines that Trump ally and multimillionaire Mike Lindell underwrote and that is now on appeal to Arizona’s court of appeals after it was rejected by a lower court.

“We’ve requested sanctions against Finchem and Lake. There was no basis in law or fact to bring that lawsuit.”... 

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STRANGE MID-TERMS... Is foreign policy a priority?

Notably, nearly 80 percent of Republicans and Democrats were in favour of greater congressional oversight over the use of force. That’s a relevant statistic as lawmakers from both parties have pushed to reform the 2001 and 2002 Authorizations for the Use of Military Force (AUMFs), which have been used as the legal justification for most US military operations in Africa, the Middle East and Asia over more than two decades of Washington’s so-called “war on terror”. 



Meanwhile, there was wide bipartisan support for ending arms sales to Saudi Arabia, a potentially relevant trend as legislators from both parties have called for a tougher stand against Riyadh following a recent decision by OPEC+ to cut oil production.

 

 

www.aljazeera.com

What effect could midterm elections have on US foreign policy?


Joseph Stepansky
9 - 11 minutes

Voters in the United States will cast their ballots to decide the next makeup of the US legislature in critical midterm elections on November 8.

While the campaign season largely has been defined by domestic debates over the economy, abortion, crime and immigration, voters also will be setting the tone for the next two years of US foreign policy.

Following years of fracture, experts have widely agreed that both Democrats and Republicans have reached a surprising bipartisan consensus on at least two of the main foreign policy priorities of President Joe Biden’s administration: China and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.



 

But while the White House’s current approach to Beijing’s growing economic might and assertiveness is expected to remain relatively stable no matter what party takes over Congress, analysts have said Republican rifts over continued financial support for Ukraine could be exacerbated if they take control of the House, which most predictors see as a strong possibility.

“A lot of Republicans have wanted to see more weapons and have been less inclined to restrain the types of weapons that [the US] sends [to Ukraine],” said Leslie Vinjamuri, director of the US and the Americas programme at Chatham House.

“But then, at the same time, we’ve seen a certain wing of the Republican Party vote against some packages that include a lot of money that’s going to Ukraine. 

Meanwhile, observers have said Republican victories in the House or the Senate may amplify a growing partisan divide in Washington, DC, posing myriad challenges for the Biden administration’s agenda in the next two years.

Republican control of the legislature also could amplify the voice of former President Donald Trump, who is expected to be the party’s 2024 candidate – and who pursued an “America First” strategy that shook up US foreign policy during his term in office.

“There’s going to be a lot of Republicans who are going to be very eager to demonstrate their loyalty to Donald Trump, as he presumably goes on to campaign for the presidency and perhaps win,” said Jeff Hawkins, a former US ambassador and an associate research fellow at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs in Paris.

“There’s going to be all this noise and the objective is going to be to discredit Democrats generally, but Joe Biden specifically,” Hawkins told Al Jazeera. “And that will be felt in foreign policy.”

Division of powers 



While US presidents have increasingly consolidated power over foreign affairs in recent decades, and some observers have accused Congress in recent years of having “abdicated its foreign policy responsibilities”, the House and Senate still maintain several key constitutional powers.

That most notably includes control over the federal budget and the ability to formally declare war against another nation.

Congress must approve aid spending, as well as appropriations to the vast apparatus that makes up the US foreign government, with a large portion of that funding going to the military, the diplomatic corps, and other expenses abroad.

For example, since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February, it has authorised tens of billions of dollars in military and humanitarian funding for Kyiv. The president, meanwhile, can typically bypass Congress to impose sanctions, a key tool Washington has used to punish Moscow over the war.

“The sanctions – the sticks – can almost all be done, traditionally, by executive order,” said Maximilian Hess, a Central Asia fellow in the Eurasia programme at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. “But the administration in my view is looking towards using more carrots, helping out affected third countries, as well as Ukraine itself,” he said. 

“I think [a Republican takeover] could affect the carrot side of the approach, not the stick,” he told Al Jazeera, “but with Ukraine essentially needing $3-$4bn in external support almost every month, that is hugely important.”

Republican discourse on Ukraine

In May, 57 Republicans in the House of Representatives voted against a $40bn Ukraine aid package. Eleven Republicans voted against the measure in the Senate.

But it remains to be seen if the relatively small group of Republican legislators currently opposed to Ukraine aid will grow, said Vinjamuri at Chatham House.

Still, the combination of the “more populous side” of the party and “the broader ecosystem of the Tucker Carlson Republicans”, she said, referring to the popular right-wing television host who has regularly espoused Russian talking points since the invasion began, could shift the discussion – particularly if the US begins to “really suffer” economically.

Polls generally show strong support and concern for Ukraine among the US public, although the position has softened, particularly among registered Republicans.

A survey released in October by Eurasia Group found continued widespread support for the current US approach to Ukraine among voters from both parties, with more than 30 percent of Republicans agreeing or strongly agreeing the US has responded well. Still, the authors noted a third of respondents reported a neutral opinion, “suggesting the war might not be a top concern for a substantial minority of respondents”.

House minority leader Kevin McCarthy, currently the highest-ranking Republican in the chamber, recently suggested that a change in the party’s position on Ukraine could be imminent. “I think people are going to be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank cheque to Ukraine,” he told Punchbowl News on October 18. “They just won’t do it.”

Nevertheless, another top House Republican, Michael McCaul, hours later said the Biden administration should provide longer-range missiles that Washington has not yet made available to Kyiv, mostly amid concerns they could be used in cross-border attacks.

Among Republican candidates, the rhetoric has at times gone beyond just criticising aid, according to a joint analysis by Foreign Policy magazine, the Alliance for Securing Democracy at the German Marshal Fund and the Brennan Center for Justice.

The report identified a “noisy minority” – two House Republican candidates and a Democratic candidate who has not been endorsed by the party – who have “parroted the most egregious Kremlin propaganda”, including calling Ukrainians “Nazis” and accusing Kyiv of war crimes.

Populist Republicans who have remained more staid on the issue may look to the performance of candidates like JD Vance, a Republican running for an open Senate seat in Ohio who become one of the most prominent opponents of aid to Ukraine this campaign season, for cues on how to approach the issue, the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Hess noted.

Is foreign policy a priority?

Ultimately, foreign policy generally lags behind other issues on voter priority lists, with only 45 percent of registered voters ranking it as an important issue in an August Pew Research Center Poll, far behind the 77 percent who identified the economy as critical.

Meanwhile, 37 percent of respondents rated Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a “very important” issue as of mid-October, according to a Morning Consult poll, down from 56 percent in mid-March and also lagging far behind the economy, gun policy and abortion.

“There’s a kind of disconnect between foreign policymaking in Washington and ordinary Americans,” said Mike Hannah, a senior fellow at the Eurasia Group Foundation.

“It isn’t a critique of the foreign policy establishment per se, it’s just the case that Americans don’t typically prioritise or get really excited about or interested in foreign policy topics around election seasons,” he said.

“As a result, there’s less political incentive for policymakers to really heed public opinion.”

He added the Eurasia Group’s recent survey has revealed several bipartisan trends among voters that appear out of step with traditional party positions, and could inform how legislators and candidates approach some key foreign policy issues after the midterms. . ."

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