Saturday, November 05, 2022

NEW BLUE: Twitter begins rolling out $7.99 Twitter Blue plan with verification, fewer ads

"According to an in-app iOS notification viewed by TechCrunch, the upgraded Twitter Blue, starting at $7.99 per month, will add the blue verification checkmark previously reserved for accounts that applied through Twitter’s free verification process. Other benefits listed as “coming soon” include “half the ads” seen by non-paying Twitter users as well as ostensibly “twice as relevant” ads (Blue previously removed ads entirely), and the ability to post longer videos to Twitter (although it’s not clear just how long; the notification doesn’t specify).

Twitter Blue with verification
Elon Musk with dollar signs in his eyes, twitter logo pattern in the background

Image Credits: Bryce Durbin / TechCrunch

Update: It appears that the launch might’ve been premature. According to a tweet by Esther Crawford, a product lead at Twitter, the new Twitter Blue plan isn’t live yet but some users are seeing notifications as part of a live test. 

Just days after newly minted Twitter CEO Elon Musk floated changes to Twitter’s system for verifying user accounts, including charging $8 per month for the privilege, Twitter appears to have begun rolling out a new tier of Twitter Blue, its premium subscription service, that reflects some of the changes that Musk has proposed. 

✓ What’s unclear is whether currently verified Twitter users will lose their blue checkmark if they don’t fork over $7.99 per month. The language in the notification suggests this won’t be the case, but reporting by The Verge indicated that Twitter was considering stripping verification badges from accounts that don’t pay for Twitter Blue within 90 days of the new plan launching. 

In any case, the new, costlier Twitter Blue will also offer priority ranking for “quality content,” promising to boost Blue subscribers’ visibility in replies, mentions and search. A revamped notifications screen in the Twitter app defaults to displaying tweets from verified users in the first tab. Twitter’s making the claim that this will help “lower the visibility of scams, spam and bots,” but time will time will tell whether that’s truly the case.

Available in the U.S., Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the U.K. on iOS to start, the new Twitter Blue arrives after mass layoffs at Twitter affecting roughly half of the company’s staff, including employees on key human rights, accessibility, AI ethics and curation teams. Musk has claimed that the cuts — along with the introduction of new paid features — are necessary to bring Twitter to profitability, as the company faces an estimated $1 billion a year in interest payments on $13 billion in debt.

It’s likely to be an uphill battle. Data from analytics firm Sensor Tower suggests that Twitter’s app has generated only $6.4 million in in-app purchases to date, with Blue being the top purchase. And a poll by investor Jason Calacanis — while hardly scientific — had a majority of respondents saying no to paying any amount for verification.

Musk’s management of Twitter doesn’t appear to have instilled much confidence in major advertisers, however, many of whom have paused campaigns on the platform. In a tweet on Friday, Musk blamed a “massive drop” in Twitter revenue on “activist groups pressuring advertisers,” likely referring to an open letter sent Tuesday by civil society organizations urging Twitter advertisers to suspend their ads if Musk didn’t commit to enforcing safety standards and community guidelines."

A Depression is Coming

 It is important our leaders are aware of megathreats like these so they can be addressed before it is too late. So long as dysfunctional, polarised politics and warring geopolitical rivalries prevent a much-needed global collaboration, the dystopian path looks a more likely bet.




The author Nouriel Roubini is professor emeritus at the Stern School of Business and the author of Megathreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, and How to Survive Them.


 Nouriel Roubini: a new Great Depression is coming
The economist who predicted the 2008 crash warns that a combination of uncontrolled inflation and ballooning debt will push the world economy into ruin.

 


www.ft.com

Megathreats by Nouriel Roubini — an avalanche of coming disasters

John Thornhill
7 - 9 minutes

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At least there were only four horsemen of the apocalypse. But reflecting today’s rampant inflation, Nouriel Roubini now identifies 10 so-called megathreats, spanning various economic, financial, political, technological and environmental disasters. “Sound policies might partially or fully avert one or more of them, but collectively, calamity seems near certain,” Roubini jauntily concludes. “Expect many dark days, my friends.”

Readers of a nervous disposition may want to file this book in the bin before they turn a page. Those braced for an ice bath of pessimism may profit from its gloomy insights about the state of the world. Roubini’s warnings may be alarmingly scary, but they are also disturbingly plausible. One only prays that policymakers have better solutions than the author unearths.

Roubini certainly has form in predicting calamity and investors have learnt to ignore him at their cost (as he quips, he’s graduated from “being a Cassandra to a sage”). The Turkish-born American economist was labelled Dr Doom for warning of a housing crash ahead of the global financial crisis of 2008. But he cavils at this nickname because, he claims, it fails to recognise that he examines the upside with as much rigour as the downside. “If I could choose my nickname, Dr Realist sounds right.”

Little reassured, the reader confronts an avalanche of coming catastrophes.

On his specialist subject of economics, Roubini warns in Megathreats that the debt crisis of our lifetimes lies ahead. The entire world resembles the financial delinquent that is Argentina that has defaulted on its debt nine times since its independence in 1816. By the end of 2021, global debt, both public and private, exceeded 350 per cent of the planet’s gross domestic product. The Mother of All Debt Crises (Roubini capitalises the phrase to emphasise the point) looks inevitable either this decade, or next.

Every possible remedy to this looming debt disaster brings its own perils: the paradox of thrift, the chaos of defaults, the moral hazard of bailout, the wealth or labour taxes that kill investment or hit the most needy, the inflation that wipes out creditors. “Choose your poison,” he writes. The latest infatuation with modern monetary theory, keeping interest rates low while piling up more debt, will only lead to a different form of reckoning.

As if explicit debts were not enough to worry about, implicit debts are even more alarming. Even the richest societies are not rich enough to deliver on all the promises made to the swelling ranks of pensioners. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has estimated that unfunded or underfunded government pension liabilities in the top 20 economies amount to a staggering $78tn. “Implicit debt is a major time bomb and a severe megathreat.”

Roubini doubts that our current crop of central bank governors are up to the challenge. Outstanding economists, such as the Federal Reserve’s Ben Bernanke (who has just been awarded the Nobel Prize) and the European Central Bank’s Mario Draghi, have been replaced by the current crop of lawyers and regulators. The strong likelihood is that they will do nothing to stop stagflation — the painful combination of stagnant growth and rising prices — that will make the 1970s look like a warm-up act. That will only lead to a Great Stagflationary Debt Crisis (note those capitals again).

Further currency meltdowns and economic instability will follow. The financial weakness of Greece and Italy may yet trigger a collapse of the European monetary union. Financial turmoil will also lead to more protectionism and the reshoring of industrial production. That will accelerate deglobalisation and the further fragmentation of our interconnected world.

Naturally, Roubini takes a dismal view of the impact of artificial intelligence, which is already leading to dangerous concentrations of corporate power, widening social inequalities and the spread of disinformation that undermines democratic politics. Such is the power of AI that it will destroy swaths of white-collar jobs and lead to mass technological unemployment. “I do not see a happy future where new jobs replace the jobs that automation snatches. This revolution looks terminal,” he writes.

The fight for technological supremacy between the US and China will further aggravate existing geopolitical tensions. That could well trigger a war between the two rival superpowers. Roubini airs the view that Washington’s previous embrace of China might count as the worst strategic blunder by any country in recent times because it accelerated the rise of a deadly, authoritarian rival. “China will become the largest economy in the world, there’s no doubt about that — it’s only a question of when,” he writes.

By this point, you might be able to guess Roubini’s conclusions about the climate emergency. All economic or technological fixes that stand any chance of addressing the scale of the problem (think global carbon taxes or direct air capture) are either politically impossible or prohibitively costly. The one million or so refugees who entered the EU in 2015, causing a massive political backlash, is only the prelude to the vast migrations of peoples to come. And Roubini suggests that with only 17mn people in Siberia, Russia’s far east may well be colonised by the Chinese, fleeing the consequences of climate change.

What, if anything, can be done to counter these megathreats? Not much, Roubini miserably concludes. Only seven pages of his book are devoted to a more Utopian future. While it is hard to dispute much of Roubini’s analysis, it would at least have been worth noting that humanity has experienced, and endured, many terrible times in the past. The world was not a happy place in 1941 but the global scourge of fascism was ultimately defeated. Great crises have often galvanised collective action that was unpredictable at the time.

The one possible Hail Mary pass Roubini sees is technological innovation leading to a surge in economic productivity and environmental improvement. Strong, inclusive, sustainable economic growth of more than 5 per cent a year could check many of these dangerous trends and enable us to afford universal basic income.

This reviewer was glad to see that one of his own articles on the promise of nuclear fusion energy provided some comfort to the author. But even on the most optimistic of assumptions, plentiful, cheap and green fusion energy remains decades away. “For anything resembling a happy ending to happen, computers poised to displace us must come to our rescue,” he writes. Despite the dangers, we had better bet on AI.

Megathreats: The Ten Trends That Imperil Our Future, and How to Survive Them by Nouriel Roubini, John Murray £20/Little, Brown $30, 320 pages

John Thornhill is the FT’s Innovation Editor

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Nouriel Roubini: a new Great Depression is coming
The economist who predicted the 2008 crash warns that a combination of uncontrolled inflation and ballooning debt will push the world economy into ruin.

Nouriel Roubini: a new Great Depression is coming

The economist who predicted the 2008 crash warns that a combination of uncontrolled inflation and ballooning debt will push the world economy into rui...

www.newstatesman.com

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Let’s hope that Dr Doom exaggerates but Nouriel Roubini’s book Megathreats, published this week, warns of a new global Great Depression worse than the last. He earned his nickname as the only economist to predict the great bank crash of 2008. Listen to him

It may sound paradoxical, but Britain needs to spend its way out of recession | Polly Toynbee

Cutting during a recession has been long discredited, says Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee

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Want to challenge your optimistic nature? Meet Dr. Doom

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Why America’s next presidential election could be its last

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Nouriel Roubini is Professor Emeritus (2021-present), Professor of Economics (1995-2021), Stern School of Business, New York University. He is also CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, LLC, a global macroeconomic consultancy firm in New York, as well as Co-Founder of Rosa & Roubini Associates based out of London. At a 2006 address to the International Monetary Fund, Roubini warned of the impending recession due to the credit and housing market bubble. His predictions of these upside-down balance sheets became a reality in 2008, with the bubble bursting and reverberating around the world into a global financial crisis – a recession we’re only recently rebounding from after a decade climb.    READ MORE


www.theguardian.com

I predicted the 2008 crash – these are the global 'megathreats' I can see now | Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini
5 - 6 minutes

In the coming decades, the world faces megathreats that would imperil not just our global economy and financial assets, but also put at risk peace and prosperity.

In our partisan political world, where we kick the can down the road – we are biased towards short-term planning and leave thinking about the future to others – these threats are something different. Left to grow, they will make life worse for people across the world. It is essential for the public good that these threats are not ignored by our leaders, but are acknowledged, taken seriously and countered – fast.

Some of these megathreats are economic: the spectre of inflation and recession at the same time; the mother-of-all debt crises as private and public debt ratios hit historic highs; an ageing population that will crash our pension and healthcare systems, to name just three. In the years before the 2008 financial crisis, I correctly predicted that our virulent cycles of boom and bust would bring total economic meltdown. I fear we face that prospect once again.

Here is what economic crisis would look like this time. A global recession that will be severe – not short and shallow – as high debt ratios and rising interest rates cause a sharp increase in debt servicing problems. Defaults for zombie households, firms, financial institutions, governments and countries as central banks are forced to increase interest rates – not cut them as we have seen in recent decades – to fight inflation. Advanced economies such as the UK start to be priced like emerging markets after disastrous economic and fiscal policies, such as those from the short-lived Truss government. The bubbles of private equity, property, venture capital and cryptocurrencies will burst now that the era of cheap money is over.

But beyond these, our turbulent times present us with broader geopolitical megathreats to our way of being. The global backlash against liberal democracy and the rise of radical, authoritarian parties of the extreme right and left is in part driven by the sharp rise in income and wealth inequality. Workers feel left behind while elites gain wealth and power. This will worsen as jobs are lost, not because of trade and migration, but because AI, robotics and automation will lead to permanent technological unemployment. Left unchecked, this will surely see yet more dangerous, aggressive, populist regimes rise to power.

More urgently, the conflict in Ukraine has increased the risk of a renewed cold war between the west and powers such as China, Russia or North Korea. The rising tensions between the US and China over Taiwan have peaked in recent months and could escalate further. The constant risk of conflict between Iran and Israel could yet destabilise us all.

And then there is the most pressing, most real megathreat of all: the global climate crisis, which will cause untold, irreversible economic and human disasters if it continues to be ignored. It’s already at our door, of course. Natural disasters this year alone have resulted in millions of climate refugees. Droughts and heatwaves have swept across India and Pakistan, sub-Saharan Africa and the western United States. They are just a sign of things to come, yet the powerful are doing little to address it – most talk, and indeed most investment, is nothing more than green-washing, and green-wishing. It is not the urgent, tangible action we need.

These are but some of the current ominous signs of much worse and dangerous megathreats in the decade ahead – megathreats that I see our leaders ignore every day, clear as it should be that the last 75 years of relative calm are now at threat.

Here is one possible path for our future world: these threats materialise and feed on each other in a destructive loop, leading to economic chaos, instability, meltdowns and conflict worse than we already know. But there is another, less dystopian, future: one where domestic and international politicians cooperate on sound policies and solutions to ensure the continuation – however bumpy – of the half a century of peace and prosperity.

It is important our leaders are aware of megathreats like these so they can be addressed before it is too late. So long as dysfunctional, polarised politics and warring geopolitical rivalries prevent a much-needed global collaboration, the dystopian path looks a more likely bet.

GREEN MATTERS: Greta Thunberg calls for downfall of capitalism...She argued that global warming can only be solved by a “system-wide transformation,

". . .Interspersed among the usual directives about the need to pressure political leaders, her message was more radical and more militant than it has been in the past. 


There is no “back to normal”, she told us. “Normal” was the “system” which gave us the climate crisis, a system of “colonialism, imperialism, oppression, genocide”, of “racist, oppressive extractionism”. Climate justice is part of all justice; you can’t have one without the others. 


We can’t trust the elites produced by this system to confront its flaws — that’s why she, much like Rishi Sunak, won’t be bothering with the COP meeting this year. COP itself is little more than a “scam” which facilitates “greenwashing, lying and cheating”. Only overthrow of “the whole capitalist system” will suffice.

 

Greta Thunberg Releases 'The Climate Book,' Featuring 100 Contributors: "Hope Is Taking Action"

Sophie Hirsh - Author
By

Oct. 28 2022, Published 2:44 p.m. ET ‘The Climate Book’ by Greta Thunberg will focus on creating your own hope, sharing stories, and taking climate action.

On Oct. 19, Thunberg shared a video to Instagram to hype her audience up for her upcoming book.

“Right now, we are in desperate need for hope. But hope for whom?” Thunberg states in the video, before exploring the ways hope will differently affect those who will be able to most easily adapt to the climate crisis and those “who will not be so fortunate.”

“To me, hope is not about pretending that everything will be fine,” she continues. “It is not about sticking your head in the sand or listening to fairy tales about non-existent technological solutions. It’s not about loopholes or clever accounting. Hope is not something that is given to you. It is something that you have to earn, to create.”

“Hope is taking action. It is stepping outside your comfort zone,” she adds. “So instead of looking for hope, start creating it yourself.”


The Climate Book
features passages written by scientists, philosophers, historians, meteorologists, engineers, economists, Indigenous leaders, and other experts. Each section of the book includes an essay by Thunberg as well, according to New Scientist.

You can read the full list of contributors in this Instagram post by Thunberg, but a few highlights include Ayana Elizabeth Johnson, Bill McKibben, Margaret Atwood, Michael Mann, Naomi Klein, and Sônia Guajajara — all of whom we’ve written about on Green Matters before. . .

And just like with Thunberg’s other books, she will not be profiting from The Climate Book.


 

“I will not earn any money from this book as my copyright belongs to the Greta Thunberg Foundation. So all royalties go to charity,” she stated in an Instagram post.

And if you’re wondering about the cover of the book, which features stripes that fade from shades of blue to shades of red, these are known as “warming stripes,” which represent how average temperatures have changed over the past 100 years.

✓ 

www.rt.com

Greta Thunberg calls for downfall of capitalism

2 - 3 minutes

The teenage climate activist also blamed “racism” for warming the planet

"Swedish eco-activist Greta Thunberg has turned her attention to the political arena, calling for the downfall of capitalism, which she claimed is responsible for climate change.

✓ The 19-year-old climate campaigner launched her book – ‘The Climate Book’ – in London on Sunday night, telling the audience that the world is “never going back to normal again.” She argued that global warming can only be solved by a “system-wide transformation,” according to a write-up of the event by the Telegraph.

The capitalist system, Thunberg continued, is “defined by colonialism, imperialism, oppression and genocide by the so-called global North to accumulate wealth that still shapes our current world order.”

“If economic growth is our only priority, then what we are experiencing now should be exactly what we should be expecting,” she added, before calling the extraction of fossil fuels “racist.”

✓ As some of Thunberg’s critics pointed out online, global living standards have broadly risen under capitalism, while carbon emissions have fallen in the capitalist USA since the turn of the millennium. Thunberg replied to these critics on Wednesday, stating that she is not advocating for a return to “socialism, liberalism, communism, conservatism, centrism, you name it,” which she said “have all failed.”

✓ Thunberg, who has previously been criticized for failing to offer solutions to the problems she outlines, did not say what kind of system she would replace capitalism with.


Shooting to fame after she organized a series of school walk-outs in her native Sweden in 2018, Thunberg has since delivered her dramatic predictions of ecological armageddon to lawmakers across the Western world, to UN summits, and to the World Economic Forum’s yearly gatherings at Davos, Switzerland. WEF founder Klaus Schwab is also an advocate of radically restructuring the global order, a vision he calls “the Great Reset.”

Despite spending several years on the globalist circuit, Thunberg will skip the UN COP27 climate conference in Egypt next week, telling her audience that she now views the summit as a “scam” and an example of “greenwashing” – an attempt by politicians to falsely portray themselves as environmentally friendly. 

unherd.com


Greta Thunberg throws in her lot with the anti-capitalist Left

The activist has been showing a more overtly political stance in London

by Nicholas Harris

4 - 5 minutes

✓ "Last night, London’s Royal Festival Hall hosted a children’s crusade. The purpose? To “celebrate” the launch of The Climate Book, Greta Thunberg’s coffee-table manifesto which collects essays from climate scholars, interspersed with photography and doom data (the cover itself is a colour chart of global temperature, moving from halcyon blue to DEFCON red). London answered the call.

Greta was in conversation with a beaming Samira Ahmed (“You’re the coolest 19-year-old I’ve ever met!”), who gently quizzed her about life as the world’s most famous climate activist. The crowd adored her. They lapped up her awkward ingenuousness. It was the perfect middle-class day out, like a trip to Glyndebourne or Blenheim. Some had even brought their young children, clearly hoping to inspire them into the same breed of activism. And, belying her reputation for aggressive sermonising, Greta was perfectly charming. The fury of “How dare you!” Greta has given way to a likeable figure of exasperated passion.

But this isn’t the only thing about the Swede that has changed. Previously, she’d sold herself as a five-foot human alarm bell, a climate Cassandra. Her role was to warn, not to instruct: her most viral moments involved her scolding political leaders, not trying to supplant them. She strenuously avoided programmatic detail, saying such things were “nothing to do with me”. But now, on stage and in this book, she has found her political feet, specifically the Left-wing ideology of anti-capitalism and de-growth.


Interspersed among the usual directives about the need to pressure political leaders, her message was more radical and more militant than it has been in the past. There is no “back to normal”, she told us. “Normal” was the “system” which gave us the climate crisis, a system of “colonialism, imperialism, oppression, genocide”, of “racist, oppressive extractionism”. Climate justice is part of all justice; you can’t have one without the others. We can’t trust the elites produced by this system to confront its flaws — that’s why she, much like Rishi Sunak, won’t be bothering with the COP meeting this year. COP itself is little more than a “scam” which facilitates “greenwashing, lying and cheating”. Only overthrow of “the whole capitalist system” will suffice.

So now we are finally seeing the contours of Thunbergism. Run your eye down the contributors to The Climate Book and you can see who she’s been reading: Jason Hickel, Kate Raworth, Naomi Klein. For these people the climate crisis isn’t man-made. It’s made by capitalism, as are the other forms of social injustice which plague society. There’s no GDP growth — especially of the capitalist sort — without increasing carbon emissions. The only solution to this state of emergency is for rich countries to immediately abandon economic expansion as a social goal.

It is hardly surprising that Greta thinks this way given how closely tied environmental activism has become with the more experimental end of the modern Left. De-growth is surely not the only feasible solution to the climate crisis, but Greta appears to have no doubts. And, like the bulk of her generation, she has lost any faith in the gradualist, establishment Left’s power to change things. Her teens spent chiding national governments have made her one of the most famous people in the world — her twenties look set to be far more explosive, and even revolutionary.

 


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