Tuesday, April 11, 2023

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen plans to tell financial regulators gathered in Washington this week that the U.S. banking system is on solid ground

IMF-WORLD BANK SPRING MEETINGS

Janet Yellen says the economy looks ‘bright.’ The IMF sees ‘turbulence.’

The IMF said in the report that global output will bottom out at 2.8 percent in 2023 — down from 3.4 percent in 2022 and 0.1 percentage-point lower than it predicted in January.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, director of research at the International Monetary Fund, speaks at a news conference.


PRESS RELEASES

Detailed Guidance and Press Schedule for Secretary Janet L. Yellen and Treasury Department at the 2023 Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank

WASHINGTON – Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen, Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo, and other senior Treasury officials will represent the United States in the 2023 Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) and will participate in events on the margins from Monday, April 10, through Friday, April 14 in Washington, DC. Secretary Yellen will also represent the United States at the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meetings on the sidelines of the Spring Meetings.

During the Spring Meetings, Secretary Yellen will coordinate with counterparts on the challenges and opportunities facing the global economy. Secretary Yellen will mark major advances like the IMF’s new $15.6 billion economic program in Ukraine and efforts to evolve the multilateral development banks. Our initial work is enabling the World Bank to deliver up to $50 billion in additional financing capacity over the next decade to combat extreme poverty, boost economic growth, and mitigate and adapt to climate change.

Throughout the week, Secretary Yellen will work with partners from across the world to coordinate on action to make the global economy stronger and address shared challenges – including those stemming from Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine – like food insecurity and volatile energy prices. She will redouble her engagement with international counterparts on collaborating to create more resilience in the global financial system.

Secretary Yellen will mark key steps in the MDB Evolution effort to better meet global challenges like combatting climate change in a way that enhances work to combat poverty. That includes the candidacy of Ajay Banga to serve as President of the World Bank. The Secretary will stress that taken together, new vision and new leadership will help transform the Bank to better meet its updated mission while unlocking and mobilizing additional resources to get it done.

The Secretary will continue to press for coordinated economic support for Ukraine alongside our partners and will note the significance of the IMF’s new economic program in Ukraine. 

Secretary Yellen will also discuss with counterparts during the week the continuing work with our coalition to deny Russia the equipment and revenue it needs to pursue its illegal war, including by continuing to tighten our efforts against sanctions evasion. The Secretary will highlight our historic sanctions coalition, including the price cap, which is contributing to dramatic declines in Russian energy revenue – its most important source of funding. 

During the week, Secretary Yellen will also maintain urgency for the speedy resolution of Common Framework cases like Zambia and Ghana to remove debt overhangs and foster growth in developing countries.  She will also stress the importance of concluding the debt treatment for Sri Lanka.

On Monday April 10 at 2:00PM, Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs Jay Shambaugh will deliver remarks and participate in a fireside chat at the Brookings Institute. Under Secretary Shambaugh will discuss the Department’s priorities during the Spring Meetings, including strengthening the global economy, advancing MDB Evolution, supporting Ukraine, and addressing debt issues in developing countries. Registered press may attend.

On Tuesday April 11 at 10:00 AM, Secretary Yellen will hold a bilateral meeting with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman of India, where she will discuss shared priorities during India’s presidency of the G20 like combatting climate change and evolving the multilateral development banks. Secretary Yellen will deliver brief remarks, which will be open to pre-credentialed media.

> At 11:30AM Secretary Yellen will hold a press conference at the Treasury Department. There, the Secretary will speak to her key priorities for the Spring Meetings: strengthening the global economy, evolving the multilateral development banks, including through Ajay Banga’s candidacy for the World Bank Presidency, supporting Ukraine’s resistance to Russia’s illegal war, and addressing debt overhang in developing countries. This event will be open to pre-credentialed press and will be livestreamed here.

> On Wednesday April 12 at 8:15 AM Secretary Yellen will host a MDB Evolution Roundtable where she will bring together finance ministers from both borrower and shareholder countries to discuss ways to maintain momentum to evolve the multilateral development banks to better meet current challenges. There will be an extended spray to cover the Secretary’s opening remarks at the beginning of this meeting for pre-credentialed media. 

> Following that, at 10:15 AM Secretary Yellen will participate in the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable. This meeting will be closed press.

> Later that day, at 2:00 PM Secretary Yellen will participate in the Ukraine Ministerial Roundtable where she will deliver remarks on the importance of maintaining our coalition’s shared economic support to Ukraine to help support its brave resistance to Russia’s illegal war. Secretary Yellen’s remarks will be open press and can be viewed via livestream here.

> At 4:00 PM, Secretary Yellen will participate in the World Bank Development Committee Plenary to advance measures to evolve multilateral development banks to better address global challenges like climate change while delivering on core development goals.

> In the evening Secretary Yellen will attend the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors (FMCBG) Working Dinner. The dinner will be closed press.

> On Thursday April 13 at 8:45 AM, Secretary Yellen will join Millennium Challenge Corporation CEO Alice Albright and Finance Minister Sri Mulyani of Indonesia in signing a compact that will deliver funding for Indonesia’s Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) program, as well as support for improving infrastructure, increasing access to finance, and promoting women’s economic empowerment. This event will be open to pre-credentialed media. 

> At 1:45 PM Secretary Yellen will hold a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal of Ukraine at the Treasury Department. Afterwards, Secretary Yellen and Prime Minister Shmyhal will deliver brief remarks to the press. These remains will be open to pre-credentialed media.

> Then, at 3:00 PM Secretary Yellen will host at the Treasury Department a meeting of the Five Finance Ministers – Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States. This will be the first in-person meeting of the group and will bolster joint economic security efforts. 

> On Friday April 14 at 10:30AM Secretary Yellen will hold a bilateral meeting with European Commissioner for Economy Paolo Gentiloni and European Commissioner for Financial Services, Financial Stability and Capital Markets Union Mairead McGuinness. 

The meeting will be closed press.

> Following that, at 11:30 AM Secretary Yellen will hold a bilateral meeting with Italian Minister of Economy and Finance Giancarlo Giorgetti. The meeting will be closed press.

At 3:30 PM Secretary Yellen will hold a bilateral meeting with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.

> At 4:45 PM Secretary Yellen will attend the Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action. The meeting will be closed press.

Secretary Yellen, Deputy Secretary Adeyemo, and other senior Treasury officials will also participate in other closed press events and bilateral meetings on the margins of the Spring Meetings.

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4/11, 6:37 AM (Source: TeleTrader)

Fed's Williams: We need to watch retail sales, CPI data

EPA-EFE/SHAWN THEWFed's Williams: We need to watch retail sales, CPI data

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams remarked on Tuesday that the central bank has brought the monetary policy to a "restrictive stance" and that, for any future decisions, it should monitor retail sales, inflation and other data.

"We will see what we need to do on hikes by assessing the data," Williams told Yahoo Finance. "One more rate hike is a reasonable starting place but we will be driven by the data. ... If inflation comes down, we will have to lower rates." Commenting on the labor market, he noted "some slowing in demand for labor," but insisted that "job growth is still quite strong."

Earlier this week, Williams predicted inflation will go back to its target of 2% by 2025 and previously go down to around 3.75% in 2023.

Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JR

Updates Mohamed El-Erian

There's no reason for the US to fall into recession unless the Fed messes up, Mohamed El-Erian says

"Mohamed El-Erian says there's no reason for the US to tip into recession unless the Federal Reserve miscalculates what it needs to do again.

The top economist, a longtime critic of the Fed, sees hope for the US economy in data out last week. Official figures showed the labor market still moving at a brisk pace in March, even as it slowed down somewhat.

"I think we can avoid a recession. We are seeing weakening, but the most interesting sector is services. We've had conflicting data," the chief economic adviser at Allianz told CNBC on Monday.

"There's no reason why we should fall into a recession other than getting another Fed policy mistake," he said.

El-Erian has previously slammed the US central bank for mistaking inflation as transitory. That meant the Fed then had to unleash an aggressive campaign of interest-rate hikes on the US economy to try to cool price pressures. 

Moody's Mark Zandi and other economists fear the central bank could "overtighten" its policy — that is, it could raise rates too far and end up undermining growth.

But according to El-Erian, the latest payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics offers room to be hopeful about the US economy.

"Solid employment growth, higher labor force participation. That's good for both the demand and supply side of this economy," he said.

The US added 236,000 jobs in March, just short of the 239,000 expected, while the unemployment rate moved down from 3.6% to 3.5%. The labor force participation rate ticked up from 62.5% to 62.6%.

Just a few days before that release, the ISM manufacturing index update for March showed a drop in US factory activity to the lowest level since July 2020, with a corresponding fall in employment.

Beyond the economic indicators, investors are watching the fallout from the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank 

El-Erian's forecast is in stark contrast to what other top market commentators expect for the US economy, given turmoil in the banking sector following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. 

Fears are mounting that tighter credit conditions among US lenders alongside the Fed's rapid interest rate hikes could spark an economic slump. While El-Erian notes that the SVB debacle raises the odds of a recession, it "doesn't make it a done deal." 

"It's going to play out over several quarters, it's not a sudden stop, it's not 2008," El-Erian said. 

mohamed el-erian
Mohamed El-Erian. 
REUTERS/Jason Reed

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