Friday, December 12, 2025

NEWS HEADLINES: Semafor Flaghsip 12 Dec 2025

  
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Trump signs executive order banning states from regulating AI

Dec 12, 2025, 5:50am MST
Al Drago/Reuters

US President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at banning states from regulating AI.

Several state governments have tried to place guardrails on the technology, which the AI industry and the White House say creates a legal patchwork that hampers innovation.

But Congress has twice failed to pass a moratorium on state-level regulation. Trump’s order cannot override state laws, but directs federal agencies to circumvent them, The Verge reported.

It will almost certainly face legal challenges, NPR reported, and drew criticism from some Republicans trying to pass laws limiting children’s AI use.

The order will have the greatest impact on California, which passed a wide-ranging law in September and is home to many of the world’s largest AI firms.

People stand at an observation deck with a view on office buildings of Beijing’s central business district.
Maxim Shemetov/File Photo/Reuters

The head of the International Monetary Fund this week urged Chinese authorities to address economic imbalances, adding to criticism that Beijing weakens its currency to benefit its exporters.

The EU Chamber of Commerce noted recently that the renminbi had fallen to its lowest in a decade against the euro, despite trade patterns that should have helped it appreciate, while Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients that the currency was around 25% undervalued and its strengthening was among the bank’s “highest conviction views.”

Even Chinese economists — typically loath to contradict Beijing — have argued that the renminbi needs to appreciate. “If this does not happen,” a Chatham House expert warned, “then protectionist sentiment in the West is likely to build.”

Italian cuisine gets UNESCO ‘intangible heritage’ status

Updated Dec 12, 2025, 6:02am MST
A waiter in Rome. Guglielmo Mangiapane/Reuters.

The UN declared Italian food an “intangible cultural heritage,” the first time a national cuisine has been awarded the status, which Rome hopes will help boost tourism and fight gastronomic “fakes.” UNESCO, the UN’s cultural arm, regularly names historic sites and artifacts as cultural property, physical examples of a society’s heritage: Examples include Stonehenge or the Pyramids of Giza. But it also endorses non-physical things such as traditional dances or religious rites. Specific foods — including Neapolitan pizza-making — have been included before, but never an entire national cuisine; Italy’s government campaigned for the move, in part to help it in an ongoing fight against “fake” Italian food. No doubt the nation will celebrate the decision with a can of Spaghettios.

A Reddit logo.
Brendan McDermid/Reuters

Reddit sued Australia’s government over the country’s social media ban. Canberra enacted the world’s first social media age limit this week, blocking all under-16s’ accounts.

Reddit said that the law breached Australia’s constitution, which establishes freedom of political communication; a separate lawsuit from two Australian teens argues the same.

Other countries are watching Australia with great interest — partly to see if the lawsuits are successful, but also to see if the ban has the desired effect of safeguarding mental health.

Previous legal efforts, for example South Korean and Chinese laws banning video games at night, were found to be flops. Australia’s ban is a “natural experiment,” researchers wrote in Nature, and should be carefully observed.

 

Ivory Coast seeks US help to fight jihadists

Updated Dec 12, 2025, 5:06am MST
Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara.

Ivory Coast reportedly wants the US to station spy planes in the country to help it fight jihadists who have gained territory across much of West Africa in recent 

Extremist groups, including some linked to al-Qaida, have turned the region into the world’s terrorism epicenter, forcing millions to flee and further destabilizing some of the world’s poorest regions.

Their territorial expansion has been aided by several regional countries breaking long-term security alliances with Western nations, replacing their assistance with help from Russia, which analysts say is a far weaker partner.

Some experts now fear that fighting between jihadi groups could turn West Africa into an “insurgency corridor” spanning 1,000 miles, Bloomberg reported.

 
 
Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

The US and Japan conducted joint military drills, a symbolic boost for Tokyo, which is locked in a tense feud with Beijing.

Japan has accused China of stepping up naval activity in disputed waters, and has said it could get involved if Taiwan were threatened, remarks that triggered economic boycotts and efforts at defense intimidation by Beijing.

Japan has reportedly voiced frustration that the US has not offered its high-level support, and Washington may be changing its tune: The countries’ defense ministers agreed recently that China’s activities were “not conducive to regional peace,” while US jets — including two nuclear-capable bombers — took part in the drills and an American aircraft carrier docked at a Japanese port.

Ukraine could cede land for peace deal

Updated Dec 12, 2025, 4:57am MST
 
Isabel Infantes/File Photo/Reuters

Ukraine has reportedly agreed to make territorial concessions as part of a peace deal with Russia, a potential major step toward reviving a flagging US-backed proposal.

According to Le Monde, Kyiv and its European backers have accepted a US push for a demilitarized zone in its Donbas region: Washington had proposed that the territory be turned into a “special economic zone,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

The Trump administration is pressuring Zelenskyy to accept a deal, while Moscow says that there are no longer any “misunderstandings” with Washington.

However, Zelenskyy remained skeptical that an agreement could be reached. “The final mile is the hardest. Everything could fall apart for many reasons,” he said.

"Doesn't it seem weird that the legacy media all say the same thing at the same time using the same phrases?"

 Joe Rogan Podcast News's Video on X

Elon Musk: "Doesn't it seem weird that the legacy media all say the same thing at the same time using the same phrases?"

BEA News: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, September 2025

 
US Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis

BEA News: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, September 2025

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has issued the following news release today:

The U.S. goods and services trade deficit decreased in September 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. 

https://www.bea.gov/system/files/trad0925-chart.png 

The deficit decreased from $59.3 billion in August (revised) to $52.8 billion in September, as exports increased more than imports. The goods deficit decreased $7.1 billion in September to $79.0 billion. The services surplus decreased $0.6 billion in September to $26.2 billion.



News Release

EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 a.m. EST, Thursday, December 11, 2025
BEA 25–47
CB 25–160

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, September 2025

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $52.8 billion in September, down $6.4 billion from $59.3 billion in August, revised.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit
Deficit: $52.8 Billion –10.9%°
Exports: $289.3 Billion +3.0%°
Imports: $342.1 Billion +0.6%°

Next release: To be determined. Report delayed due to recent lapse in federal funding.

(°) Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable. Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, December 11, 2025

Goods and Services Trade Deficit: Seasonally adjusted

Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)

September exports were $289.3 billion, $8.4 billion more than August exports. September imports were $342.1 billion, $1.9 billion more than August imports.

The September decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $7.1 billion to $79.0 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.6 billion to $26.2 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $112.6 billion, or 17.2 percent, from the same period in 2024. Exports increased $125.1 billion or 5.2 percent. Imports increased $237.7 billion or 7.7 percent.

Three-Month Moving Averages (exhibit 2)

The average goods and services deficit decreased $2.1 billion to $63.1 billion for the three months ending in September.

  • Average exports increased $3.2 billion to $283.9 billion in September.
  • Average imports increased $1.1 billion to $347.0 billion in September.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit decreased $14.0 billion from the three months ending in September 2024.

  • Average exports increased $10.4 billion from September 2024.
  • Average imports decreased $3.6 billion from September 2024.

Exports (exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods increased $8.8 billion to $187.6 billion in September.

    Exports of goods on a Census basis increased $8.8 billion.

  • Industrial supplies and materials increased $7.2 billion.
    • Nonmonetary gold increased $6.1 billion.
  • Consumer goods increased $4.1 billion.
    • Pharmaceutical preparations increased $3.1 billion.
  • Capital goods decreased $3.3 billion.
    • Computers decreased $2.3 billion.

    Net balance of payments adjustments decreased less than $0.1 billion.

Treatment of Gold in BEA's International and National Economic Accounts
When incorporating the statistics in this release into BEA’s National Economic Accounts, including Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, BEA replaces exports and imports of nonmonetary gold with an adjustment calculated as the difference between domestic production and industrial use of gold. For additional information, see “How are exports and imports of gold recorded in BEA’s International Economic Accounts?” and “How are exports and imports of nonmonetary gold treated in BEA’s National Economic Accounts?”.

Exports of services decreased $0.4 billion to $101.7 billion in September.

  • Travel decreased $0.6 billion.
  • Transport decreased $0.2 billion.
  • Financial services increased $0.3 billion.

Imports (exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods increased $1.7 billion to $266.6 billion in September.

    Imports of goods on a Census basis increased $1.7 billion.

  • Consumer goods increased $10.2 billion.
    • Pharmaceutical preparations increased $12.9 billion.
  • Industrial supplies and materials increased less than $0.1 billion.
    • Nonmonetary gold increased $1.9 billion.
    • Crude oil decreased $1.3 billion.
  • Capital goods decreased $5.6 billion.
    • Computers decreased $4.7 billion.
    • Electric apparatus decreased $1.5 billion.
    • Computer accessories increased $1.7 billion.

    Net balance of payments adjustments decreased less than $0.1 billion.

Imports of services increased $0.3 billion to $75.5 billion in September.

  • Transport increased $0.2 billion.
  • Financial services increased $0.1 billion.
  • Other business services increased $0.1 billion.
  • Travel decreased $0.2 billion.

Real Goods in 2017 Dollars – Census Basis (exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit decreased $4.7 billion, or 5.6 percent, to $79.0 billion in September, compared to an 8.3 percent decrease in the nominal deficit.

  • Real exports of goods increased $6.2 billion, or 4.2 percent, to $151.9 billion, compared to a 4.9 percent increase in nominal exports.
  • Real imports of goods increased $1.5 billion, or 0.7 percent, to $231.0 billion, compared to a 0.7 percent increase in nominal imports.

Revisions

Revisions to August exports

  • Exports of goods were revised down $0.2 billion.
  • Exports of services were revised up $0.3 billion.

Revisions to August imports

  • Imports of goods were revised up $0.3 billion.
  • Imports of services were revised down $0.5 billion.

In addition to revisions for August 2025, exports of goods for July 2025 were revised to incorporate a $1.0 billion correction to exports of other goods to Canada.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis (exhibit 19)

The September figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, 

  1. with Switzerland ($6.6), 
  2. Netherlands ($5.9), 
  3. South and Central America ($5.0), 
  4. Hong Kong ($2.1), 
  5. Belgium ($1.4), 
  6. Brazil ($1.3), 
  7. United Kingdom ($1.1), 
  8. Australia ($0.5), 
  9. Saudi Arabia ($0.4), and 
  10. Singapore ($0.1). 
Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars
  1. with Ireland ($18.2), 
  2. Mexico ($17.8), 
  3. European Union ($17.8), 
  4. Vietnam ($14.4), 
  5. China ($11.4), 
  6. Taiwan ($9.4), 
  7. Canada ($4.9), 
  8. Germany ($4.6), 
  9. Japan ($3.6), 
  10. South Korea ($3.4), 
  11. India ($3.1), 
  12. Malaysia ($1.8), 
  13.  Italy ($0.4), 
  14. France ($0.3), and 
  15. Israel ($0.1).
  • The balance with Switzerland shifted from a deficit of $0.1 billion in August to a surplus of $6.6 billion in September. Exports increased $7.1 billion to $10.8 billion and imports increased $0.3 billion to $4.1 billion.
  • The deficit with China decreased $4.0 billion to $11.4 billion in September. Exports increased $0.2 billion to $8.8 billion and imports decreased $3.9 billion to $20.1 billion.
  • The deficit with Ireland increased $15.3 billion to $18.2 billion in September. Exports decreased $0.5 billion to $1.7 billion and imports increased $14.8 billion to $19.9 billion.

All statistics referenced are seasonally adjusted; statistics are on a balance of payments basis unless otherwise specified. 

 Additional statistics, including not seasonally adjusted statistics and details for goods on a Census basis, are available in exhibits 1-20b of this release. 

For information on data sources, definitions, and revision procedures, see the explanatory notes in this release. 

The full release can be found at www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/index.html or www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services

The full schedule is available in the Census Bureau’s Economic Briefing Room at www.census.gov/economic-indicators/ or on BEA’s website at www.bea.gov/news/schedule.
 

Next release: To be determined
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSWlOzua8kmHdaocAIfGWsdYIVx0Dn079B6AY78FY5VGg&s 
See Notice below.


U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, October 2025 Notice

Updates to the Release Schedule

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis are working to update our respective schedules of economic releases, which were affected by the government shutdown. We are consulting with data suppliers to determine the availability of data used to produce our economic indicators. 
We will publish updated release dates as soon as they are available at www.census.gov/foreign-trade/schedule.html and www.bea.gov/news/schedule.
 

POLL: 'TIS THE SEASON FOR... INFLATION


'Tis The Season for Inflation"
 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G7-7FZwWUAUzw5a?format=jpg&name=small

This holiday season isn’t very merry for consumers, an AP-NORC poll finds

 "MERRY CAPITALIST CONSUMER-DRIVEN CORRUPTION OF AN ANCIENT PAGAN SOLSTICE  FERTILITY HOLIDAY. I mean Christmas. MERRY CHRISTMAS Meme " Poster for Sale  by starkle | Redbubble

Little optimism about an economic rebound in 2026

Few people expect the situation to meaningfully improve next year — a sign that Trump has done little to instill much confidence from his mix of tariffs, income tax cuts and foreign trips to attract investments. Trump has maintained that the benefits from his policies will begin to snowball in 2026.

About 4 in 10 U.S. adults expect next year will be economically worse for the country. Roughly 3 in 10 say conditions won’t change much. Only about 2 in 10 think things will get better, with Republicans being more optimistic.
  • The belief that things will get better has slipped from last year, when about 4 in 10 said that 2025 would be better than 2024.

Millicent Simpson, 56, of Cleveland, Ohio, said she expects the economy to be worse for people like her who rely on Medicaid for health care and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. Simpson voted Democratic last year and blames Trump for the greater economic pressures that she faces going into the winter.

“He’s making it rough for us,” she said. “He’s messing with the government assistance for everybody, young and old.”

This holiday season isn’t very merry for consumers, . .

 https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQcqSODWoivbbAPhbFlen95gT0yFjgrcnwa6Q&s

WASHINGTON (AP) — This holiday season isn’t quite so merry for American shoppers as large shares are dipping into savings, scouring for bargains and feeling like the overall economy is stuck in a rut under President Donald Trump, a new AP-NORC poll finds.
  • Roughly half of Americans say it’s harder than usual to afford the things they want to give as holiday gifts, and similar numbers are delaying big purchases or cutting back on nonessential purchases more than they would normally.
It’s a sobering assessment for the Republican president, who returned to the White House in large part by promising to lower prices, only to find that inflation remains a threat to his popularity just as it did for Democrat Joe Biden’s presidency. 
The poll’s findings look very similar to an AP-NORC poll from December 2022, when Biden was president and the country was grappling with higher rates of inflation.  
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G7-7FZwWUAUzw5a?format=jpg&name=small 
  • Trump’s series of tariffs have added to inflationary pressures and generated anxiety about the stability of the U.S. economy, keeping prices at levels that many Americans find frustrating.. ."

 

The Astronomical Cost of Defeating ‘Any Foreign Aerial Attack’

BREAKING VIEWS | Reuters

Venezuelan oil riches will stay mostly theoretical

Oil tanker on Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas
An oil tanker sails on Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela October 14, 2022. REUTERS/Issac Urrutia/File Photo
LONDON, Dec 12 (Reuters Breakingviews) 
 The U.S. seizure of a sanctioned tanker has sharpened President Donald Trump's standoff with Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro. It does not, however, make the country’s 300 billion barrels of theoretical oil reserves – the world’s largest – any easier to turn into usable supply. Even if Washington’s pressure campaign leads to tangible political change, oil investors have little cause to overhaul their supply-demand assumptions.




  • US admiral leading US troops in Latin America to step down

    Admiral Alvin Holsey will retire two years early, amid rising tensions with Venezuela that include Wednesday's seizure of an oil tanker and more than 20 deadly strikes on suspected drug-smuggling boats.

  • US preparing to seize more tankers off Venezuela's coast after first ship taken
  • Supertanker Skipper seized by US near Venezuela is heading to Houston, sources say
  • Mapping escalating US pressure on Venezuela
  •  
    Commentary ANOTHER "ZELFIE"
  • Zelenskiy visits Kupiansk as Ukraine retakes parts of frontline town

    Ukrainian forces said they had retaken parts of the northeastern town of Kupiansk and had encircled Russian troops there as President Volodymyr Zelenskiy visited the area and praised the operation, saying it strengthened Ukraine diplomatically.

    Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy self-records a video in front of a sign that reads 'Kupiansk. 
     Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Handout via REUTERS
     
  • US offers 'free economic zone' in east if Ukraine cedes Donbas, Zelenskiy says
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