High Risk / High Potential Pay-Off: IARPA's Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge

IARPA is interested in identifying the most effective ways to integrate human judgement with other types of data

The IARPA Organization

The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) invests in high-risk/high-payoff research programs that have the potential to provide our nation with an overwhelming intelligence advantage over future adversaries.

At IARPA we take real risks, solve hard problems, and invest in high-risk/high-payoff research that has the potential to provide our nation with an overwhelming intelligence advantage.

Working with IARPA

Throughout our website you can learn more about engaging with us on our highly innovative work that is already positively impacting the U.S. Intelligence Community and society in general.

Just click on any of the below links.

Getting Started

There are a variety of ways to partner with us. To begin, we strongly encourage you to review our open solicitations page as well as seek out any of our experts.

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Prize Challenges Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge                             

Can you create a method to forecast the future?
NEWS RELEASE
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
ODNI News Release No. 4-18
January 16, 2018

IARPA Announces the Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge to Improve Crowdsourced ForecastsWASHINGTON – The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, announces today the upcoming launch of the Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge in February 2018, with pre-registration beginning today. Through this competition, IARPA will challenge contestants to develop innovative solutions and methods for integrating crowdsourced information into accurate, timely forecasts on worldwide issues. The challenge presents an opportunity for individuals and teams who are eligible to win prizes from a total prize purse of $200,000 for methods that successfully demonstrate a forecast of a wide variety of geopolitical events, such as political elections, disease outbreaks, and economic indicators.

READ more > DNI Press Release

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Why Should You Participate: This challenge gives you a chance to join a community of leading experts to advance your research, contribute to global security and humanitarian activities, and compete for cash prizes.
This is your chance to test your forecasting skills and prove yourself against the state-of-the-art, and to demonstrate your superiority over political pundits.
By participating, you may:

• Network with collaborators and experts to advance your research
• Gain recognition for your work and your methods
• Test your method against state-of-the-art methods
• Win prizes from a total prize purse of $200,000

Throughout the challenge, an online leaderboard will display solvers’ rankings and accomplishments, giving you opportunities to have your work viewed and appreciated by leaders from industry, government and academia.
When We’re Doing This: The challenge will launch February 21, 2018 so keep checking back for additional details. To receive updates or request more information, email gfchallenge@iarpa.gov.
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The Geopolitical Forecasting (GF) Challenge invites solvers from around the world to develop innovative solutions and methods for integrating crowd-sourced forecasts and other data into accurate, timely forecasts on worldwide issues. The challenge presents an opportunity for individuals and teams to earn prizes by creating methods that successfully demonstrate a forecast of a wide variety of geopolitical events, such as political elections, disease outbreaks, and macro-economic indicators.

Who We Are: The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), focuses on high-risk, high-payoff research programs to tackle difficult challenges of the agencies and disciplines in the intelligence community. IARPA’s challenges invite experts from the broader research community to participate in IARPA research in a convenient, efficient, and non-contractual way.
What We’re Doing: Existing methods of geopolitical forecasting include human judgment-intensive methods, such as prediction markets, and data-intensive approaches, such as statistical models. GF Challenge solvers will develop solutions that produce probabilistic forecasts in response to numerous closed-ended forecasting questions that concern specific, objectively verifiable geopolitical events containing timeframes with deadlines and locations. The effort will run in parallel to IARPA’s most current geopolitical forecasting research program-- Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC). Challenge solvers will be competing on the same forecasting questions as HFC research teams, and given access to the same human forecaster data stream. In addition to the provided data stream, solvers may use other data streams and their own data and models for the challenge.
Why We’re Doing This: IARPA is looking for approaches from non-traditional sources that would improve the accuracy and timeliness of geopolitical forecasts. IARPA hosts these challenges in order to identify ways that individuals, academia, and others with a passion for forecasting can showcase their skills easily.
When We’re Doing This: The challenge will launch February 21, 2018 so keep checking back for additional details. To receive updates or request more information, email gfchallenge@iarpa.gov.

When does pre-registration begin?	January 2018
When does the challenge launch?	February 21, 2018
How do I stay connected to get information about the challenge?	Join our mailing list at gfchallenge@iarpa.gov
Where do I learn more about the specifics of the challenge?	www.iarpa.gov/challenges/gfchallenge.html
When does the challenge end?	September 2018

 

A Re-Run by Mayor John Giles: Looking Back To See What's Next?

Yes, "The Devil's in the details"

Gee Whiz Gosh! The mayor has a great public relations team behind him when his honor himself posts a Tweet highlighting last year's SOTC slickly-produced extravaganza to sell tickets to this year's big event . . . so far it's received 3 Likes.
But who can forget the iconic image captured by photographer Ivan Martinez that says it all: the massive privately-financed $500,000+ PR campaign was a major screw-up when taxpayers REJECTED a mega-million scheme to plop down an ASU satellite here in downtown.
Not a good track-record to "engage the public" for sure.

Once again, unless the public and taxpayers want to pay-to-go and fork out from their pockets the $60-buck$ for admission, it's the same-old/same-old tired re-tread where the public is relegated to the role of being spectators: you can watch it unless you can pay.
Perhaps that's just another reason why year after year the community is effectively cut-off from being active players in their own government . . . that's What Works Mesa???
Unlike other mayors in East Valley who hold annual reports on the state of their cities with events open to the public free-of-charge, there's been absolutely no arrangements to invite the public  - or taxpayers here in Mesa who pay his salary and generous benefits package.
Did you buy your $60 or $50 tickets yet for another State-Of-The-City Speech?
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Last year's extravaganza started off with John Giles leading a high school marching band into the Mesa Convention. . . this year's performance could feature the larger-than-life John Giles [who's suffering from an injury to his Achilles' Heel] leading the six-member squad of the Mesa City Council who have been rehearsing their moves to stay in-step with a limping the former track star acting as mayor.
Here's the tweet and last year's re-run just in case you want to pay-to-go
Mayor John Giles‏ @MayorGiles              

#tbt to State of the City 2017!

Excited to be getting ready for #SOTC 2018 on Feb 6.

Watch it live at http://mesa11.com/live  or on FB.

Purchase a ticket at http://mesachamber.org .

 

Purchase a ticket at http://mesachamber.org .pic.twitter.com/ca7CORXjC0

0:13

81 views

1:23 PM - 25 Jan 2018

 

1:23 PM - 25 Jan 2018

3 Likes

New InfoGraphic Tool In The Urban Planning Tool-Box: PsychoGeography

The Evolution of Urban Planning

Nick Routley 20 Jan 2018 at 10:11 am

"Urban planning has been around for as long as cities have existed, but the 20th century saw a number of bold ideas that radically changed the make-up of our urban centers.
From garden cities to psychogeography, today’s infographic by Konstantin von der Schulenburg is an informative overview of the modern movements and ideas that shaped urban planning. . . "

QUESTION: How does Mesa evolve?

 

Some Clues for You >The Evolution of Urban Planning

Urban planning has changed a lot over the centuries. Early city layouts revolved around key elements such as prominent buildings (e.g. cathedrals, monuments) and fortification (e.g. city walls, castles).

As cities grew larger, they also became more unpleasant. Here are some key ideas from architects and planners who sought to tame the unruly urban beast.

These visualizations range from the Noli Map of 1748 - 40 years before the City of Mesa was founded by "The Pioneers" sent on a mission by Joseph Smith to indigenous lands and territory in the westward Manifest Destiny of the United States - to The Transact in 2000.

1903: Garden City >

Sounds a lot like right here in Mesa

". . . At the dawn of the 20th century, cities were experiencing big population growth.

The Garden City concept – devised by the English planner Ebenezer Howard – sought to solve urban overcrowding and poor quality of life by creating smaller, master-planned communities on the outskirts of the larger city.

The city would be structured around concentric circles of land use and include a sizeable park and greenbelt. Greenbelts were a revolutionary idea at the time and are still widely appreciated to this day.

Greenbelts here in Mesa? Nope - we have a lot of parking lots and vacant spaces scarring the downtown urban landscape as the result of bad urban planning and demolition

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Here are some more visualizations and Infographics:

Broadacre City

If there is a true antithesis for today’s urbanism, then the suburban brainchild of Frank Lloyd Wright is surely it. Broadacre City was a thought experiment that envisioned decentralized communities that would sprawl across a lush, bucolic landscape. That vision stood in stark contrast to frenetic, exhaust-choked cities of the 1940s, which resembled “fibrous tumor(s)” according to Wright.

Though Broadacre City was never built verbatim, Wright’s rejection of the American city came to life in the form of suburbs and strip malls from sea to shining sea.

The Megaregion

As cities within close proximity grow and merge together, finding a way to make them work as a connected economic and social unit is a key strategy for becoming more competitive on the global stage.

Jean Gottman, a French geographer, recognized this megaregion trend early on in the Northeast region of the United States. His seminal 1961 study, Megalopolis: The Urbanized Northeastern Seaboard of the United States, outlined the extraordinary dynamics that shaped America’s largest urban corridor.

The Transect

In North America, many cities have a stark divide between urban and suburban areas – a gap known as “the missing middle”. New urbanists seek to create more dense residential development, particularly in walkable, transit-accessible areas.

Please Note: This new form of city planning isn’t just cosmetic, it may help save cities from bloated infrastructure costs.

Recent research into the tax efficiency (property tax revenues vs. infrastructure maintenance costs) of a variety of American cities and found that walkable urban districts tended to be revenue-positive – in effect, subsidizing surrounding low-density areas.

Next Stop: Smart Cities

In the era of big data, the future of our physical spaces may be defined more by bytes than bricks.
City governments have been collecting big picture data for planning in transportation and zoning for some time, but new technology allows for the capture of even more granular data. Cities can now measure everything from noise pollution to wastewater volume, and this can have a big impact on spending efficiency and overall quality of urban spaces
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It’s almost like a FitBit for the city.

– Stuart Cowan, chief scientist, Smart Cities Council





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A prominent section of waterfront in Toronto, Canada, is about to become a testing ground for this concept.

The partnership between a government agency and Sidewalk Labs, a division of Alphabet, will produce an urban district that fully integrates technology and data collection into its design.

If the project is successful, it may influence the way future “smart” neighborhoods are constructed.

 

 

10% Discount Tickets: BYU Summit @ Mesa Arts Center Tomorrow

Unlike the recent Sold-Out Book Signing for Pete Sousa's book of Obama photographs that attracted a crowd of over 1,600 people standing in line for two hours waiting to get in the doors, some seats for this event need to get filled with an hour of discount tickets - and you're invited to come early to enjoy ahead of the show a BYU Creamery Ice Cream and BYU Brownie social before appearances by members of the General Presidency.     
BYU Summit - Phoenix - 2018: Finding Your Strength
Sa7 27 Jan 2018 @ Ikeda Theater 7 pm
Presented by BYU Alumni Relations and the BYU Phoenix Arizona Chapter
Spend an evening full of fun and inspiration with BYU alumni, family, and friends. 

• BYU Vocal Point: BYU's premier 9-man a cappella ensemble.
• Sheri Dew:  Deseret Book CEO & Deseret Management Corp. EVP, Author, Speaker, former Relief Society General Presidency
• Robbie Bosco: BYU Athletics administrator, former BYU & NFL player, QB of the 1984 National Championship team
• Matthew O. Richardson: BYU VP, oversees Athletics and Advancement, former Sunday School General Presidency

Come early for a BYU Creamery Ice Cream and BYU Brownie social with alumni and friends, and to meet Cosmo!
GET YOUR TICKETS HERE > here 
Offer: 10% off all tickets 
Promo Code: BYUAZ18

So Excited! + So Thrilled! > 9 Days in May: Gigantic Humanoid Alien Inflatable

. . . there's more - Same day May 4 the monthly Motorcycles on Main event + on May 6 Opening Party for American Alliance of Museum’s (AAM’s) Conference ++ May 11, Mesa Contemporary Arts Museum opens exhibitions of figurative work in all five galleries, which will be complemented by Fantastic Planet, and coincide with Second Friday in downtown Mesa.
Thanks to Casey Blake for sending this press release:
Mesa Arts and Culture Department to present U.S. Debut of Fantastic Planet

Australian Artist’s Giant Interplanetary Aliens to Invade Downtown Mesa

Mesa Arts and Culture Department to present U.S. Debut of Fantastic Planet

by Amanda Parer

Large-scale art installation Fantastic Planet landing in Mesa, AZ in early May, 2018. 

January 24, 2018 (Mesa, AZ) – Six gigantic inflatable humanoid figures will land in downtown Mesa May 4-13, 2018, where they will be installed for two large public events, a calendar of ancillary programming, and thousands of visiting museum professionals.

 

The light installation Fantastic Planet will be viewable for free across several blocks in the heart of downtown Mesa. Timed to put Mesa’s best foot forward for the opening night party of the American Alliance of Museum’s (AAM’s) Conference on May 6, the installation of the monumental inflatable sculptures by Australian artist Amanda Parer is expected to draw additional visitors from across the Valley and beyond.

The nine-day installation will kick off on Friday, May 4, 2018, with a free community celebration at several sites in downtown Mesa on a night coinciding with the monthly Motorcycles on Main event. Two days later, it will be the featured highlight of AAM’s Opening Night Party, hosted by Mesa Arts Center/Mesa Contemporary Arts Museum, i.d.e.a. Museum and Arizona Museum of Natural History. AAM’s annual national conference hosts more than 5,000 museum professionals from across the United States. The following Friday, May 11, Mesa Contemporary Arts Museum opens exhibitions of figurative work in all five galleries, which will be complemented by Fantastic Planet, and coincide with Second Friday in downtown Mesa.

Fantastic Planet was inspired by the 1973 Czech/French film of the same name, and the May event in Mesa will mark the installation’s first time in the United States. Parer says of the work, “These giants from afar will give audiences the impression that they have just landed and are quietly and gently exploring our ‘fantastic planet’.” The six, giant illuminated humanoid figures will be strategically placed, in consultation with the artist, on buildings (and one on the ground) at Mesa Arts Center, i.d.e.a. Museum and in the heart of downtown Mesa.

 Specific locations for the installation, along with details about the kick-off and other related events, will be announced in the coming weeks.

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To get a sense of scale, view this one-minute video.

Related content:

Fantastic Planet - parerstudio - Amanda Parer

https://www.parerstudio.com/fantastic-planet/

 

Six giant illuminated humanoid figures will invade the planet this year. These giants from afar will give audiences the impression that they have just landed and are quietly and gently exploring our 'fantastic planet'. As with Parer's globally successful public art exhibit Intrude, these forms will not be randomly placed ...

Fantastic Planet Archives - parerstudio - Amanda Parer

https://www.parerstudio.com/category/exhibitions/fantastic-planet/

 

Glowing Sculptures Carry a Global Message. Australian artist Amanda Parer has her sights set on a global invasion with her dramatic, illuminated sculptures. Her oversized, inflatable creations have been exhibited across the world at a variety... 0. 0. September 19, 2016 In Exhibitions, Fantastic Planet ...

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Mesa Arts Center is located at One East Main Street in downtown. More information can be found at MesaArtsCenter.com.

 

Mayor John Giles: Track Record for LGBTQ Equality

Time-and-time again in spite of repeatedly stating publicly that "It's the right thing to do", John Giles whose election campaign race to the office of the Mayor ran on his prowess as a college track star and cyclist climbing higher, his public performance while in-office has been disappointing, stalled by not exercising the leadership skills to get the job done - that has not gone un-noticed on this hyper-local blog.

Mayors Against LGBT Discrimination Coalition Gathers to Discuss Progress and Future Efforts

By Shane Stahl • January 25, 2018 • 3:17 pm

"Today, January 25, dozens of members of Mayors Against LGBT Discrimination gathered in Washington, D.C. for the 2018 meeting of the coalition, which coincides with the coalition’s 1-year anniversary and the U.S. Conference of Mayors Winter Meeting.

Freedom for All Americans created the Mayors coalition as a way to build and elevate support for non-discrimination protections for LGBTQ people nationwide.
Source: https://www.freedomforallamericans.org
QUESTION: Is Mayor John Giles running away from support for Non-Discrimination protections here in Mesa, the most conservative city in America?

“Mayors play an invaluable role in protecting and advocating for all of their constituents at the local level,” said Masen Davis, CEO of Freedom for All Americans. “Across the country, more than 250 cities have implemented comprehensive nondiscrimination protections for LGBT people that allow them to fully participate and thrive in their communities. In an administration that is increasingly advancing an agenda that harms LGBT people, Mayors Against LGBT Discrimination will continue to provide leadership and opportunities for cities to be at the forefront of advancing fairness and equal treatment for all Americans.”
Freedom For All Americans is proud of the work of the coalition, and excited to see it grow as we continue into 2018!To see a full summary of today’s meeting, click here — then be sure to view all our coalition members here.

The Mayors Against LGBT Discrimination Coalition

Mayors Against LGBT Discrimination is a bipartisan coalition of municipal leaders dedicated to securing inclusive nondiscrimination protections for all, including lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender individuals, at all levels of government. We recognize the special role mayors play in protecting the rights and safety of residents and in advancing policies that move our communities and our country forward. See all of the 299 coalition members from 48 states and the District of Columbia who have joined the Mayors Against LGBT Discrimination coalition. 
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Coalition Members: Arizona

• Greg Stanton Phoenix
• Mark Mitchell Tempe
• Jonathan Rothschild Tucson

 

Source: https://www.mayorsagainstlgbtdiscrimination.org/coalition/

Mesa City Budget = "Non-Issue" ?? Says Who? Mesa Is Deep In Debt

 In some comments in the opening minutes of the Mesa City Council Study Session on Monday, January 22, 2018 City Manager Chris Brady appeared relieved when the Final Budget Audit done in-house became what he called "a Non-Issue" by getting placed as an item on the Consent Agenda where all items are usually approved all at once and in one fell swoop without any questions or comments from either any member of the public or any of the six Councilmembers.

THE TAKE-AWAY:   (Bad accounting is) really undermining our democracy's ability to knowledgeably participate."

The Mesa City Council 'Squad'

Chris Brady -who is the City's Chief Executive - was cued to make some comments by Mayor John Gilesthat the audit was put on the Consent Agenda instead of facing questions or comments from any member of the public or any six Mesa Councilmembers who usually fall into step into unanimous and fast approval of the entire Consent Agenda.

That's what works here in Mesa when so few people in the community of almost 500,000 are actively engaged in participation in their elected government or even bother be interested in what city officials are doing - the hidden cost? Every taxpayer's debt burden is almost $6,000 

There's some excellent research and attention to details in this report published yesterday by AZ Republic reporter Jessica Boehm, updated just this afternoon 25 Jan 2018 at 2:06 pm MT
Blogger's Note: There are numerous posts on this blog going back to last year and before about these accounting methods, unfunded liabilities, and the dangers of increasing Bond Debt that bankrolls the costs of Suburban Sprawl
Phoenix, Mesa earn 'D' grades in financial-health review due to pension debt

"The Valley's two largest cities earned "D" grades in an annual review of government financial health because they don't have enough money to pay their bills.

Truth in Accounting, a national fiscal watchdog non-profit, released its "Financial State of the Cities" report this week, which analyzes the financial audits of the 75 most populous cities in the country. . . "

Mesa's shortfall is $784.6 million, or $5,900 per taxpayer.

Mesa also has a hefty unfunded retiree healthcare liability of $646 million, which adds to its problem, Truth in Accounting CEO Sheila Weinberg said.

"We can't ignore that," Weinberg said. But cities have tried to in the past, she said.

'Phony government accounting'

Apparently it wasn't Mesa City Manager Chris Brady who got put on-the-hook by the reporter:

"Mesa Chief Financial Officer Michael Kennington said the city responsibly manages all of its expenses, including pension and retiree health-care costs.

"While we applaud the Truth in Accounting group’s effort to provide ‘easy-to-understand’ financial information about local governments, we don’t agree with the methodology used or with several of the subjective assumptions made and don’t really understand the purpose of this report," Kennington said in a statement. 

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What voters should know

Weinberg said

it's critical that residents are educated about their city's financial health and understand the consequences of growing debt.

"If they knew the city was running deficits, maybe they would have voted for somebody different," she said. "

(Bad accounting is) really undermining our democracy's ability to knowledgeably participate."

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Link to the source > click here