"Halloween’s around the corner, with investors treated to fresh all-time highs in U.S. stocks and nary a trick in sight. But as any scary movie aficionado will tell you, the most formidable frights begin when you’re the most complacent.
This year’s compilation of Wall Street’s chilling charts highlights concern about a debt-laden Corporate America, eerie developments in volatility markets and the ills in industrial sectors of the economy. . . "
Here are the ghoulies that petrify the professionals.
These Are the Charts That Scare Wall Street
By Luke Kawa Terrifying trade talks, skeletal earnings spook analysts ‘Fear of Fear’ rise spurs nightmares of ‘Volpocalypse’ sequel
HERE'S JUST ONE: Maxwell Grinacoff, derivatives and quantitative strategist at Macro Risk Advisors:
FRAGILE: Handle with Care
– Looking at just top-line realized volatility gives a simplified picture of actual market fragility.
"In statistics, the frequency of unusual moves is measured via kurtosis. In the chart shown, we calculate the 1Y kurtosis of S&P 500 daily returns, attempting to measure the frequency of tail moves and quantify the ‘fragility’ of the index by year over the past two decades. We note that S&P 500 fragility has been steadily increasing over the past 5Y and is on pace to meet/possibly surpass last year’s metrics (think drawdowns like February and October-December 2018).
Even in the doldrums of 2017, a 40 basis point move dictated a one standard deviation move in the index (based on an average 20-day realized volatility of sub-7%). That said, a 50-100 basis point move in the S&P was considered outsized at the time!
Worth noting that 2017 witnessed >0.50% daily returns ~20% of the year.
< Here's one picture that's worth more than just a few thousandwords, two hours of your time watching a video-on-demand, and history going back to a bygone era in the 1880's. It's the next step in the development process after passing through the Mesa Planning & Zoning Board. It's been years in the making - Rogue Columnist Jon Tilton called it The Real Estate Industrial Complex _________________________________________________________________________
What's on the Line? Millions of dollarsin acreage that was previously zoned as agricultural land - The Boyle Family 860-acre Dairy Farm - and a parcel of state-owned land all around The Hawes Interchange close to Mesa's Elliot Road Tech Corridor, where water lines were expanded from Ellsworth Road to Signal Butte and the Signal Butte Water Treatment Plant got built. (There's more background and history from previous posts on this blog from October 2017 farther down) _________________________________________________________________________
Here's City Staff Planner Tom Ellsworth making a presentation on Water Asset Management in front of a public Mesa City Council Study Session earlier this month on October 7, 2019. There's $800,000,000 on-the-table and on the agenda for Capital Improvement Project for discussion.
_________________________________________________________________________________ Here's City Staff Planner Tom Ellsworthappearingagainlast week 5 days ago
24 October 2019
Planning & Zoning Meeting - 10/23/2019
Views at time of upload to this blog = 7 Note: 4 items were asked to be removed from the Consent Agenda for individual consideration - Items 8a - 8d.
City Planner Tom Ellsworth has put them all together since they are related
Comments are asked to be withheld until conclusion of the staff presentationjust to keep things on track . . and there's some people from the airport
Let's fast-forward to now in the first decade of the 21st century, to see and read some "nice stories" how this wealth-creation rolls out Blogger Note: Any number of stories published in mainstream media can be adapted to tell the story
Story #1 Sympathy for a Bygone-Era ... but here's the plan
East Valley's last dairy farmers look to develop 860 acres, leave areaThis is from October 2017 by Lily Altavena
"As he looks out at acre after acre of his dairy farm, Jim Boyle Jr. is not wistful at the idea of leaving the land his family has farmed for 40 years. He's hopeful.
"The East Valley had a large number of dairies, and they’ve all been replaced by development," he said. "Which, you know, is good in a lot of ways, most of those guys were able to sell their land and build bigger dairies."
Boyle Jr.'s dairy is one of five in the neighborhood near southeast Mesa involved in a massive, 860-acre zoning request. . . "How massive is it?
Their decision hinges on Mesa annexing and zoning the land to increase its value for sale to a developer.
If the dairymen are successful in zoning the primarily-agriculture land to housing, commercial and other uses, it's likely they'll pack up and sell . .
The neighborhood borders Gilbert.
Christened the "inner loop" by those in the planning effort, it's the area near Loop 202 around Elliot and Hawes Road. The Hawes Interchange Much of the land falls within Maricopa County and will require annexation into Mesa before development could take off. . .
The group of dairy farmers plan to take their zoning application to Mesa later this year, according to Jordan Rose, the attorney representing the farmers. The group wants to work with city officials to refine the plan for approval by the City Council next year. The proposed land-use plan so far includes residential, urban mixed-use, commercial and office space areas. . .
Here's the history-angle to the story: A long history in dairy farming
". . . Boyle Jr.'s family has been dairy farming in Arizona since the 1880s, and in the Phoenix area since the 1920s. His grandfather milked cows. His father milked cows. In the 1970s, the family's dairy landed in the Mesa area.
It was a popular spot for dairies: Dutch dairy farmers, too, settled in the vast expanse of agricultural land around the same time . . .
Blogger Note: remember the word "Dutch" --- it's part an even BIGGER STORY involving over 11,000 acres in Pinal County that started off by the City of Mesa selling off lands.
History continues: ". . . But that was back when farmland was more prevalent than strip malls. In the intervening years, the landscape changed. . ."
Blogger Note: The City of Mesa bought up almost 4,000 acres in what used to the General Motors Proving Grounds to facilitate, among other things two "Community Facilities Districts", Master-Planned gated secluded high-end gated communities named Cadence at Gateway and Eastmark.
Blogger Note: The low acreage-assessments for lands growing citrus and other crops are easily converted into a higher-value assets in transactions handled by "friends-and-family" when purchased and sold for housing, autoplexes, strip malls and shopping centers.
"Ever since World War II, with the rapid urban expansion of the city, all of the Valley cities, agriculture has just kind of disappeared, . . ???
According to the article by Lily Altavena, someone in the area around the dairy farm "is enthusiastic that the dairies may give way to development and so are her neighbors, she said. "At this point, we’re excited for anything," she said.
Trying to sell the land as it's zoned now would yield little, Boyle Jr. said.
"Nobody wants the land, there’s not a demand for (agricultural zoning)."
The plan the dairymen are putting together includes single-family homes, commercial, office, and park space.
District 6 Mesa City Councilmember Kevin Thompson is quoted as saying that he
"does not want to see hasty planning. He wants the area to grow strategically, with opportunities for businesses to expand, maybe more office space. Big companies have moved in right across the freeway in the Elliot Road Technology Corridor near Signal Butte. Apple has a massive data center. A Niagara bottling facility is under construction down the street. . .
Let’s work together to figure out what’s the best thing to put there and not just put housing up because that’s the easiest way to sell property and make a buck," Thompson said.
The proposed inner loop development is not in the corridor, but there is talk to extend the area to include the land, a city spokesperson said
The dairymen want a decision by around spring 2018.
Lily Altavena, The Republic | azcentral.com Published 5:00 a.m. MT April 19, 2018
"The City Council voted on a $10 million contract April 16 with Nesbitt Contracting Company, approving street widening, storm-water harvesting areas, new street lights, landscaping, a new traffic signal and and other aesthetic improvements. (scroll down for new water line and Signal Butte Water Treatment Plant )
The major infrastructure investment comes as leaders hope the once-deserted stretch of desert will turn into a hub for technology companies.
"I see it a lot like Price Road corridor (in Chandler) or like Silicon Valley, once you build it, the others will come," ???
Kevin Thompson, the Mesa councilman representing the district that includes the tech corridor, said.
But whether the $10 million in improvements is worth the taxpayer investment remains to be seen.
The area is expected to see an influx of data centers over the next few years.
Will Elliot Road be metro Phoenix's next tech hub?
William Jabjiniak, Mesa's economic development director, said the push to develop the stretch of Elliot Road into a tech corridor is "all about the jobs." ???
However, it's unclear how many jobs the area will host, as nearly all of the data centers are still in early phases.
According to this small snippet from AZ Central's reporter, companies that have bought on the Elliot Road tech corridor include:
Niagara Bottling announced a 450,000-square-foot highly-automated bottling facility in the area last year, bringing about 50 jobs to Elliot Road.
Digital Realty, formerly Dupont Fabros, bought more than 50 acres of land with plans to develop a data center, according to the city's economic development office and property records. No specific construction has been announced.
Technology company EdgeConnex also recently bought property along the corridor with plans to develop a data center, according to city documents. A spokesman would not say how many jobs the proposed data center would bring.
Not to be confused with EdgeConnex, networking company EdgeCore recently broke ground on a 1.25-million-square-foot data center campus, according to the city. The Denver-based company is investing about $150 million into the data center.
Data centers aren't necessarily regional employment centers, according to Bart Hobjin, an economics professor at Arizona State University. They are often highly automated and need few people to operate.
> But Mesa officials are looking beyond the data centers — to the tech companies that will want to "cluster" around the centers, Jabjiniak said.
"Often data centers attract other high-tech companies," he said.
> That's why the city aims to boost its infrastructure around the area, trumpeting special dark fiber connections useful to companies with high-tech operations.
Jabjiniak also said the big companies behind the data centers will generate a substantial amount of tax revenue. > Mesa isn't offering tax breaks to companies coming to the corridor, instead focusing on boosting infrastructure. > The state does, however, offer tax breaks for data centers.
Hobjin concurs with Mesa's strategy, especially as companies in California relocate to less expensive states, like Arizona.
"We have the skilled local labor supply," he said.
Thompson says the roadway improvements will help neighboring communities such as Eastmark, which need the expanded infrastructure to keep up with the pace of development.
"I’m hopeful that we’ll end up with an employment corridor to go along with that," he said.
". . . And if the $10 million gamble pays off, the economic benefits could have an effect beyond Mesa, as people from across metro Phoenix gather around job centers.
"If a zone like this is a success ... this is not only beneficial for the city of Mesa, this is beneficial for the whole metro area," Hobjin said.
It's hard to ignore some stories, like the latest one from Investigative Reporter Craig Harris. It's that catch-all thing > Public-Private Partnerships FRIENDS-AND-FAMILY CONNECTIONS
New financial records show that an East Valley charter school chain, American Leadership Academy, paid at over $45 million to companies owned by its founder, Glenn Way, or one of his relatives
JOB-SHARING / OVER-LAPPING JURISDICTIONS/INCOME ON-THE-SIDE Maricopa County Assessor in Fed Custody in Utah for possibly related crimes and fraud [we might know the true story at this rate of trickle]
The Maricopa County Board of Supervisors voted unanimously Monday to suspend Assessor Paul Petersen, who is accused of running a human smuggling scheme involving pregnant women from the Marshall Islands brought to the U.S. to give birth for adoptions
The Mormon Church has been significantly involved in politics for generations, and in the age of Donald Trump, some of the church’s leaders have been more outspoken about the need for civil discussion and finding common ground
Attorney General Mark Brnovich is making a last-ditch effort to quash a proposal to create a 330-room Omni hotel and a 30,000-square-foot conference center on land that is owned by Arizona State University.
New financial records show that an East Valley charter school chain, American Leadership Academy, paid at over $45 million to companies owned by its founder, Glenn Way, or one of his relatives
Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey has said he’s open to local governments enacting ordinances that vary from state law, specifically in the areas of public health and safety
A new study shows that Arizona is the worst in the nation when it comes to rising college costs. The report put out by the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities revealed cuts to higher education and rising tuition pushes more costs onto students
Facing a rising prison population, Kansas has transferred 120 inmates inmates to a private prison in southern Arizona. The Kansas Department of Corrections said private prison operator Core Civic recently flew the medium- and maximum-custody inmates to its Saguaro facility in Eloy.
POLITICS: 3 OF ARIZONA'S CONGRESSMEN: Loops that's Debbie Lesko
On Wednesday, dozens of Republican members of Congress stormed the closed-door proceedings of the House impeachment inquiry at the U.S. Capitol. The standoff caused what some witnesses said was a five-hour delay before Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Laura Cooper could bring her testimony behind closed doors
Mesa taxpayers REJECTED this in 2018 < Take a Look - a closer look MESA VOTER TIMES November Special Election Edititon Basic Literacy: Can't they spell the word Edition correctly, or at least proof-ready their own copy before mailing-out thousands??
ABOUT THE MESA VOTER TIMES: This is from the header on the front page of this 8-page propaganda piece ". . . As supporters of this proposal, we have launched The Mesa Voter Times to educate the community regarding this proposal and other important education issues facing our community." _________________________________________________________________________
Did you get this postcard sent to you in the mail too?? MESA'S STRONG LEGACY OF PUBLIC EDUCATION! so it says a strong legacy Huh? Among the best in one of the worst - in The State of Arizona that ranks #49 out of 50 states in the entire nation. Great was to measure performance! _________________________________________________________________________ OK. and they want more money! And make that automatic for six more years, please! __________________________________________________________ You get what they get paid for - jobs with no performance demands Paid for by The Mesa Alliance for Educational Excellence, 421 E. University Dr., Mesa, AZ 85203. Not authorized by any candidate TRY THIS LINK > https://yesformesaschools.org Accountability and Transparency – Link to Finance Reports for Mesa Schools _________________________________________________________________________
STOP RIGHT THERE: In these uncertain financial times, this is a proposal once again to raise taxes by $34,000,000 in the first year alone AND it approves six more years in advance of about the same level of spending. Throwing money at a system just won't fix it! Mesa Public Schools is an 'under-achieving' public education system that has delivered a poor performance track-record for decades for students after they enter 3rd grade - and all the way through community colleges. This propaganda does not bother to tell you that. That's just one thing. > The Superintendent of Mesa Public Schools Michael Cowan was forced to resign last year for 'financial irregularities" or so they didn't say when the line spoon-fed to the public was that 'he got a calling to go an LDS mission" to an undetermined location!
Attract Jobs – Protect Our Quality of Life Isn't there already a QUALITY OF LIFE sales tax here in Mesa for that? Why Support Mesa Schools? Mesa’s schools have built a long-standing reputation for being among the best in the entire State of Arizona. Quality, competitive schools are one of the key reasons that we enjoy such a safe, family-friendly community. HUH? Among the best in the entire State > THAT IS NOTHING TO BRAG ABOUT! Arizona CONSISTENTLY ranks #49 in all 50 states off low academic standards and failure to deliver basic proficiency standards. Arizona ranks 48th in school funding and we are far behind when it comes to investing in our schools.
________________________________________________________________________________ The mailing stamp states Presort Standard US Postage Paid Phoenix, AZ Permit No. 1021 PAID FOR BY MESA EDUCATION ALLIANCE. NOT AUTHORIZED BY ANY CANDIDATE OR CANDIDATE COMMITTEE _________________________________________________________________________ MESA PUBLIC SCHOOL FOUNDATION Source: https://www.guidestar.org/profile/86-0550594
Mission
The Mesa Foundation For Educational Excellence (The Foundation) operates as a support entity to the Mesa Unified School District No 4. The Foundation is a broadly based non-profit community organization whose purpose is exclusively educational and charitable, and is used to secure and distribute contributions for the benefit of students enrolled and adults working in the Mesa Unified School District.
Principal Officer: Darlene Brinkerhoff
Main Address:
549 N Stapley Dr
Mesa, AZ 85203
EIN: 86-0550594
IRS Filing Requirement: This organization is required to file an IRS Form 990 or 990-EZ.
Cause Area (NTEE Code): Scholarships, Student Financial Aid, Awards (B82)
PROGRAMS + RESULTS
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O Yeah. Baby! Let the Good Times roll in the luxury rental market in Southeast Mesa and Zip Code 85209. Just how good can it get in those old Superstition Vistas dreams Roc Arnett had not so very long ago . . .let's just rename a few of the parcels "Mountain Vista". Forget about all those so-called superstitions - there's a big pay-off in what used to be called 'just dirt' > here's a press release 9 hours ago from Connect Media for your interest: Thayer Manca Ends Hold on Arizona’s Avia 266, Sells for $45M
October 28, 2019
Thayer Manca Residential ended its hold on the 266-unit Avia 266 in Mesa, AZ, selling the multifamily property to Geringer Capital for $45.3 million. The Seattle seller acquired the property in January 2015 for $19.2 million, investing close to $4 million in renovations. CBRE’s Tyler Anderson,Sean Cunningham, Asher Gunter and Matt Pesch represented the seller. “The community’s appeal combined with the market’s fundamentals created significant buyer interest,” said CBRE’s Pesch.
The property at 2354 W. University Dr. has one- and two-bedroom units, with amenities including two swimming pools, fitness facility, resident clubhouse, parcel pending locker and a dog park. “Avia 266 provided us with an amazing opportunity to harness a true value-add repositioning strategy, in an effort to grow investor capital,” Thayer Manca’s Joe Manca said. “We are very confident in the greater Phoenix market, and it remains a focus of ours as we continue to grow our portfolio.” READ MORE > Connect Commercial Real Estate
HERE'S JUST ONE:
