What COVID-19 means for the US death rate

Understanding the pandemic through excess deaths

Every year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) uses historical trends and patterns to calculate an expected number of deaths in the United States. Experts later compare this projected number to the actual number of people who passed away. If the number was higher than expected, these are called “excess deaths.” COVID-19 caused thousands of excess deaths in 2020, and the Delta variant has the potential to do the same in 2021.

Deaths in the US increased by 30% in 2020, with 572,000 more Americans dying than projected. Coronavirus was the leading cause of death in spring and winter 2020, overtaking the usual top causes of cancer and heart disease.    COVID-19 deaths decreased by summer 2021 to the point where they did not impact the US death rate. However, the CDC has not released the complete cause of death data for August and September, meaning excess deaths from the Delta variant cannot yet be determined.  See the numbers for the first half of 2021 here. Where do refugees resettle? With Afghans seeking resettlement in the US after the American military withdrawal and Haitian migrants coming to the border in Del Rio, Texas, the issue of resettling refugees has been in the news lately. But immigration, refugees, and asylum seekers have been hot topics for several decades and presidential administrations. Here's what the numbers say.

Between 2010 and 2021, the top five states for accepting refugees were Texas and California (each accepting more than 50,000 refugees total), New York, Michigan, and Arizona.    Despite these being the top five states for refugee resettlement, others took in large shares of refugees over the past 11 years. Ohio was in the top five states for resettlement in 2016, 2017, and 2018. Kentucky was in the top five for 2019 and 2021.   African countries have sent the most refugees to the US in the last four fiscal years. Seventy-seven percent came from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Learn more, including how the government determines resettlement locations, at USAFacts. The poverty rate increased in 2020 The US poverty rate rose in 2020 while Americans lost health insurance and income. These changes were more acute for some Americans than others, depending on race and location. USAFacts has more on how this breaks down, including:  By the end of 2020, there were 3.3 million more people in poverty than the year before — the first poverty rate increase in six years. Nationwide, 37.2 million people lived in poverty.

Poverty increased most for Hispanic households compared to other races and ethnicities, growing by almost 2 percentage points to 17%.   Median household income decreased 2.9% last year, from $69,560 in 2019 to $67,521. Regionally, median household incomes dropped by 3.2% in the Midwest and 2.3% in the South and West.  See more about the current poverty rate in this report.  One last fact

Last Thursday, Congress passed a continuing resolution to fund the government at current levels through December. The House and Senate must still raise the federal debt limit by October 18 or risk the US defaulting on its spending obligations. Learn more about what that means here.