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05 February 2023

It’s a swing state — Arizona

Far from being bowed by what happened in 2022, the MAGA set in Arizona appear further emboldened to try for office. . .

Is Arizona Truly a Purple State—or Just Anti-MAGA? Katie Hobbs Is About to Find Out.

newrepublic.com › article › arizona-purp...

3 days ago · The new Democratic governor is setting a moderate tone for her early days in office, but trouble is already brewing with the state GOP.

elections

Arizona Republicans fear they may blow it again

Sinema’s party switch has opened the door. The fear is their candidate may walk into the frame

By Holly Otterbein, Burgess Everett and Ally Mutnick

02/01/2023 04:30 AM EST

"Kyrsten Sinema’s defection from Democrats should be a golden opportunity for the GOP. But two high-profile 2022 election losers in Arizona are eyeing Senate runs in 2024, sparking angst among Republicans that they will blow an increasingly winnable race.

Republican Blake Masters, who lost his Senate bid last year by 5 percentage points, is setting himself up for another potential run, talking to consultants and making calls about the contest. Some Arizona GOP strategists are treating it as a foregone conclusion that he’ll jump in, although a person familiar with his moves said he is truly undecided at this point and just testing the waters.

“Just look at what happened in the last two elections. You in no way have to guess what happens when MAGA candidates ignore bread-and-butter issues that Arizonans care about,” said Barrett Marson, an Arizona-based GOP strategist. “Kari Lake is not governor. Blake Masters is not senator. Republicans have to get back to basics.”

The trends have alarmed more establishment Republicans, who are privately discussing ways to head them off. GOP consultants have gone so far as to encourage Masters to run for the House instead of the Senate due to his high unfavorability ratings and the exorbitant amount of money it would take to rehabilitate his reputation in a statewide race, according to a person familiar with the conversations. Republicans believe Lake and Masters are unlikely to run against each other. . .

✓ There are rumors that Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) could retire, opening up a safe red seat and helping ease what could be a crowded field in the contest. Gosar batted down that speculation in a brief interview with POLITICO: “No, I’m not leaving. I still think I’d like to see this majority go to the White House and the Senate.”

. . . “In Arizona Republicans are stuck with a ragtag band of failed candidates,” said Nora Keefe, a spokesperson for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “We are confident we will stop Republicans in their effort to take this Senate seat.”

Asked about Lake’s interest in a Senate run, Wren said that “her focus right now is the lawsuit — that hasn’t changed.” A person close to Lake characterized her position as “the door’s not being closed” to a Senate campaign.

✓ Other potential candidates for Senate include Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, Rep. Juan Ciscomani, unsuccessful 2022 Senate candidate Jim Lamon, and businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson, who lost to Lake in last year’s primary. . .

Establishment Republicans have shown particular interest in trying to get Robson and Ciscomani into the race, eager to avoid a repeat of 2022, when expectations of a red wave ended in a net Democratic gain in Senate races. Robson, a self-funder, contributed millions of dollars from her own bank account to her gubernatorial campaign last year, only to lose to Lake in the primary. . .

✓ The ultimate dream candidate for traditional Republicans is former Gov. Doug Ducey, though few think that is a possibility after he passed on a Senate campaign last year, and clashed with Trump over the 2020 presidential election.

“He’s made it pretty clear he’s not interested, but he’d be a great option,” Thune said. . .

One candidate who has ruled out a run is Kelli Ward, former chair of the Arizona Republican Party. She told POLITICO she was not looking at another Senate bid — she ran in 2016 and 2018 — or a run for the House. The state party is now run by Jeff DeWit, who helped Trump with his 2020 run. The Arizona GOP did not respond to requests for comment. . .

✓ Lamb, like Masters, is a Lake ally. Lamb is speaking with consultants, sources said, and is expected to make a decision early this year. Lamb spokesperson Corey Vale said he is “seriously considering running for the United States Senate.”

Lamon spokesperson Stephen Puetz said that “[i]f a winning candidate emerges, he will strongly back that person — if not, Jim will run in 2024.”

Though Lake’s advisers insist that she is currently dialed in on her lawsuit to reverse the election, she found time to mention Gallego at a rally Sunday that was otherwise focused on her legal efforts, referring to him as “the AOC of Arizona.”

Lake remains popular within the GOP rank-and-file in Arizona. She appeared to cheers at the state party’s convention in Phoenix on Saturday and drew a large crowd at her rally the following night.

Lake had “supporters show up on a Sunday night in January of the odd year to simply hear her speak,” said Brady Smith, an Arizona-based GOP strategist and former Lake aide. “She’s demonstrated that she still wields the loyalty of the GOP base; anyone eyeing the Senate race has to factor that into their calculus.”

David Siders contributed to this report.