Census Bureau suggests 'significant' number of noncitizens missed in 2020 tally

Simulation estimates nearly 1/5 of noncitizens unaccounted for

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New results from a U.S. Census Bureau simulation suggests a significant number of noncitizens were missed in the 2020 census, a national head count during which the Trump administration tried but failed to prevent people in the country illegally from being tallied.

A simulated head count by the statistical agency utilized 31 types of administrative records from government agencies and third-party sources to produce estimates of the U.S. population on April 1, 2020 that could be compared to the survey-like responses used in the last official tally of every U.S. resident. The simulation was an experiment which doesn't change the results of the once-a-decade count of every U.S. resident that helps determine political power and the distribution of $1.5 trillion in federal funding in the U.S.

Almost a fifth of noncitizens found in the administrative records had addresses that couldn’t be matched in the 2020 census, suggesting that "a significant fraction of noncitizens" were missed, according to the U.S. Census Bureau report released Friday. By comparison, that same figure was 5.4% for citizens.

US CENSUS UNDERCOUNTED BLACKS, HISPANICS IN 2020

Using administrative records from government agencies that have records on immigration, welfare programs, motor vehicle registrations and other data, the test tallied 2.3% more people than in the actual census in 2020 that produced a head count of 331 million U.S. residents, primarily because the simulation captured more noncitizens residing in the U.S., the report said.

The simulation was a test to see how good a job administrative records perform in counting historically undercounted groups like racial and ethnic minorities, renters and young children. Its results actually bumped up the numbers for Hispanic and Black residents, two groups who were undercounted in the 2020 census, respectively, by 8.3 million people and 2.8 million people, the report said.