Covid. It’s On. Again just when you think it's over. . .

Covid. It’s On. Again.

Ryan McCormick, M.D. - Substack

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Covid. It's On. Again. - by Ryan McCormick, M.D. - Examined

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How to be less of a sitting duck for the holidays with Covid, flu, and RSV on the prowl.

RYAN MCCORMICK, M.D.

DEC 20, 2023

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RSV, influenza A, and Covid are increasing rapidly. In some areas exponentially. The JN.1 variant is very contagious. The World Health Organization named it a variant of interest. Furthermore:

The WHO said JN.1 doesn't appear to cause a higher public health risk than other SARS-CoV-2 variants, but it warned that it could trigger a surge in COVID-19 alongside rises in other viral and bacterial infections, especially in countries entering their winter seasons—a combination of factors that would worsen the respiratory disease burden.

The WHO said JN.1 appears to have higher immune-evasion properties than the BA.2.86 parent virus. The agency added that, despite some reduction in JN.1 neutralization, evidence so far suggests that the monovalent XBB.1.5 vaccines are likely effective, and scientists around the world are actively monitoring the impact of the vaccine.

RSV seems to be peaking, which means there is a lot of it. CDC influenza maps are getting uglier. I am also seeing people with back to back infections involving some mix of these three or another virus.

Ways to reduce risk over the holidays

Some ideas, updates, and reminders:

• If you are sick, stay home. 
• Covid is not always showing up reliably on home tests early in the disease anymore. It could also be influenza, RSV, or whatever else out there. A study just published in Clinical Infectious Diseases found :
  Peak viral load seems to be on the fourth day of symptoms.
  Using Ct values to predict rapid antigen results, the researchers estimated a sensitivity of 30% to 60% on the first day of symptoms, rising to 80% to 93% on the fourth day of symptoms.
  Early in the pandemic, they wrote, a single negative antigen test had "reasonable negative predictive value," with studies reporting 90% to 95% sensitivity in the first week of symptoms. Now, overall predicted sensitivity in the first week is about 60% to 80%. . .
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