28 September 2024

ABROAD POV: The Electoral College & American Politics 2024 | WELT

Nobody can look to the future. Forecasts were often wrong before elections, Trump's victory in 2016, for example, did not predict „FiveThirtyEight “, although the portal is usually very reliable. 
In addition, even small changes in the political mood can affect the election. 
If you want to know the result, you have to be patient.

HARRIS AGAINST TRUMP

The tightest presidential election in these US states has been decided for 60 years

From Sebastian Gubernator, Jutta Setzer
As of: 01:10 a.m.Reading time: 5 minutes
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sourceAlex Brandon / AP / dpa; REUTERS / Piroschka Van De Wouw; Assembly: WORLD infographic
Trump gegen Harris: Die knappste US-Wahl seit 60 Jahren – die Umfragen im  Überblick - WELT

In the surveys, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are fighting a tight race. Whoever wins the election decides in seven states. WELT explains what the situation in the Swing States looks like – and to whom the demoscopes currently attribute somewhat higher chances.
A few weeks before the US presidential election, only one thing is certain: it will be tight. 
According to Harry Enten, a CNN survey expert, the tightest race for the White House has been running for more than 60 years.

Ducks recently referred to it that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris separated at most a few percentage points in the surveys of the past few weeks. 
  • A struggle for the presidency was so scarce last in 1960 when John F. Kennedy competed against Richard Nixon and won. Before all the other elections since then, a candidate had a clear lead for at least several weeks.
Harris can draw some hope from individual surveys. According to their TV duel with Trump on 10 September, she won the debate. And according to a survey by the AP news agency and the Norc research center, the democrat is seen in a slightly better light than in July after President Joe Biden withdrew his candidacy.

Nevertheless, everything is still open. When it comes to who the Americans would choose, the candidates are so close together that there is hardly a clear lead. In a recently published CNN / SRS survey, 

  • Harris comes to 48 percent, just one point more than Trump. 
  • The error rate is given as three percentage points. 
The portal „FiveThirtyEight “, which is part of ABC News, the Democrat sees 49 percent just ahead of the Republican, who accounts for 46 percent.
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Who on the 5th November gets the majority nationwide, does not matter anyway, because the US electoral system is known to be based on the Election principle
Not the candidate with the most votes wins, but the one with the most voters. Anyone who receives the majority of the votes of the population in a state unites the votes of all delegates of this state.




Democrats and Republicans are currently focusing on seven so-called swing states: 
  • Wisconsin, 
  • Michigan, 
  • Pennsylvania, 
  • Nevada, 
  • Georgia, 
  • Arizona and 
  • North Carolina. 
Swing States mean states that neither Democrats nor Republicans can be firmly assigned. In the United States, they are also called „Battleground States “.
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sourceInfographic WORLD
In six of these countries, Joe Biden won the majority in the 2020 election. North Carolina has fallen to the Republicans in almost all presidential elections in recent decades, with the exception of Barack Obama's victory in 2008. In November Harris could have a chance to win the state over. In the surveys, she and Trump are almost on par there.

The portal „FiveThirtyEight “, named after the 538 voters in the so-called Electoral College, collects surveys from various institutes, weights them and calculates average values from them. 

The following graphic shows how the values developed in the Swing States. 
The desired state appears with a click on the selection menu.
  • „FiveThirtyEight “ combines these surveys with other data, such as the economic situation, and with political factors such as the fact that candidates tend to do well in their home countries. 
  • From this, the demoscopes calculate the probability with which a state will fall to a candidate. 
  • No forecast is yet possible in most Swing States; in Michigan and Wisconsin, experts see a probability of more than 60 percent for a Harris victory.
To become US president, a candidate needs at least 270 voters. 
  • Based on the states that experience has shown will vote democratically or republican, the „New York Times “ currently assumes that Harris has 226 voters on their side. 
  • Trump would therefore come to 219. 
  • The election results in the Swing States decide on the remaining votes.

Depending on their size, the states make up different numbers of voters. So it's not just about how many swing states a candidate wins, but also what they are. 
Despite all the uncertainties, if you believe the surveys, Harris is currently leading the northern Swing States, Trump is ahead in most of the southern states.
„FiveThirtyEight “ currently predicts 286 votes in Electoral College for Harris and 252 for Trump. 
  • Harris would win the election.
  • It would also be conceivable that Trump would receive the southern states and additionally Nevada. 
  • Then Harris would come to 270 voters, only two more than their rival – it would be the tightest victory since the presidential election in 1876. 
  • In other constellations, Trump would win the election.

Statisticians also calculate the probability that candidates will get a majority in Electoral College
  • At the moment, Harris can give herself a little more hope with 58 percent 
  • – the chances for Trump are a good 41 percent but far from bad. 
So these numbers also show how tight the race for the White House is.
Nevertheless, the gap in votes at Electoral College could end up being unexpectedly large. 

After all, forecasts are uncertain and no one knows how the mood in the Swing States will change. 

„FiveThirtyEight “ estimates the chance that Harris will win a landslide and receive more than 350 votes in Electoral College at least 20 percent. 
Trump is five percent.

Nobody can look to the future. 

Forecasts were often wrong before elections, Trump's victory in 2016, for example, did not predict „FiveThirtyEight “, although the portal is usually very reliable. 

In addition, even small changes in the political mood can affect the election. If you want to know the result, you have to be patient.
2024 Election – FiveThirtyEight



Election 2024: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris Polls and Odds - Newsweek


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