26 September 2024

Grumpy's SubStack: THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF

It’s important to highlight that while the Pentagon has released an updated inventory of transferred weapons, facilitating comparison with previous aid packages, air-to-ground munitions are not explicitly listed.


Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.

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ALONG THE CONTACT LINE 

GSAFU Morning Report

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Sep 25 stated that day 946 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.

During the past day, 159 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 2 missile strikes, 59 air strikes, 600 drone strikes and more than 3,500 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.

At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.


Air Force Daily Report

On the night of September 26, 2024, the enemy attacked Sumy region with two missiles of an unknown type from the Belgorod region, Odesa region with four Kh-59/69 guided air missiles from the Black Sea. Also, the occupiers launched 78 "Shahed" type attack UAVs over Ukraine (launch areas: Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Orel, Kursk - Russian Federation).

Air force, anti-aircraft missile forces, mobile fire groups and units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine were involved in repelling the enemy's air attack.

As a result of the anti-aircraft battle, four Kh-59/69 guided air missiles and 66 attack UAVs were shot down. Eight enemy drones were lost by location in several regions of Ukraine (there was no information about casualties or destruction). One returned to Russia, another remains in the airspace of Ukraine, combat work is underway.

Anti-aircraft defense worked in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Sumy, Poltava, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson, and Kharkiv regions.


The Russian Border Incursion

Ukraine continues offensive operations in Glushkovsky Raion.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Sep 25 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in Glushkovsky Raion west of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on Sep 25, but there were no confirmed Ukrainian advances in the area. Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks south and southwest of Glushkovo near Novyi Put and Veseloye.

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations on the edges of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on Sep 25, but did not make any confirmed advances. Russian sources claimed that fighting continued southwest of Korenevo near Krasnooktyabrskoye; southeast of Korenevo near Lyubimovka, Darino, and Nikolayevo-Darino; east of Korenevo near Olgovka; and southeast of Sudzha near Plekhovo.

Russian forces continued counterattacks along the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on Sep 25, but did not make any confirmed advances. Russian Presidential Aide Alexei Dyumin claimed on Sep 25 that he has no doubt that Russian forces will "completely liberate" all of Kursk Oblast in the "near future" according to the Russian General Staff's plan. 

Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on Sep 25 that elements of the Russian 6th Air Force and Air Defense Army, including its 105th Mixed Aviation Division, 899th Assault Aviation Regiment, 15th Army Aviation Brigade, 332nd and 440th separate helicopter regiments; and 2nd and 32nd air defense divisions are operating in Kursk Oblast, alongside other Russian units that ISW has previously observed in the area. Russian milbloggers noted that Russian border guards continue to operate in Kursk Oblast. 


The Khortytsia operational-strategic group

(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )

Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 Russian attacks near Vovchansk and Tykhe.


Kupyansk Sector:  Russian Forces carried out 9 unsuccessful offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Synkivka, Kruhlyakivka and Lozova, 2 engagements continue. 


Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 21 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Novosadove, Zarichne, Yampil and Bilhorivka. 10 engagements continue. The situation is tense.  


Siversk Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment in the last 24 hours.


Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 7 offensive actions near Hryhorivka, Chasiv Yar and Klishchiivka. 1 engagement is currently ongoing.


Toretsk Sector:  Russian forces carried out 9 offensive actions with air support near Toretsk, Shcherbynivka and Nelipivka. 2 engagements continue.


The Tavria operational-strategic group

(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)

Pokrovsk Sector : The most intense attacks were in this direction today.  Russian forces conducted 53 attacks against Ukrainian defences in this area over the last day in the vicinity of Novotoretske, Hrodivka, Lysivka, Novohrodivka, Marynivka and Selydone. The situation is complicated, but controlled by the Defense Forces. Ukrainian forces are making efforts to prevent the advancement of the enemy.


Kurakhove Sector:  The enemy, supported by aviation, made 23 assaults on Ukrainian positions near Ukrainsk, Tsukuryne,  Hirnyk and Heorhiivka. 7 engagements continue.


Vremivka Sector:  Russian forces made 8 assaults against Ukrainian positions near Vuhledar and Vodiane. 1 engagement is ongoing. 


Orikhiv Sector: Russian forces made 2 assaults against Ukrainian positions near Robotyne. 1 engagement is currently ongoing.


The Odesa operational-strategic group

(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)

Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, the situation has not changed significantly. Russian forces made 2 unsuccessful attempts to force Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.


TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES

Nothing major to report.


THE HOME FRONT

Three energy infrastructure facilities struck in overnight Russian strikes - Ukrainian PM 

An overnight Russian drone and missile strike targeted three Ukrainian energy transmission facilities, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Sept. 26.

"But the Russian terrorists did not achieve their goals — Ukraine's energy system is operating in a balanced mode, no power cuts are planned," he added in a post on Telegram.

Shmyhal said one of the facilities targeted was in Mykolaiv Oblast in southern Ukraine, but did not specify the location of the other two.

Ukrainian forces downed 66 out of 78 Shahed-type drones and four Kh-59/69 cruise missiles launched by Russia overnight from, the Air Force reported.

Eight more drones were "lost" in a few regions and another one "went back to Russia," it added.

On the morning of Sept. 26, Russian forces also launched three Kinzhal ballistic missiles.

Russia launched nine coordinated attacks against Ukraine's electricity infrastructure between March and August, striking facilities in 20 oblasts, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sept. 25 during his speech at the U.N. General Assembly in New York.

"This is how Putin is preparing for winter — hoping to torment millions, millions of Ukrainians… Ordinary families — women, children… Ordinary towns, ordinary villages," Zelenskyy said.


RUSSIAN WORLD

Kremlin Says New Nuclear Doctrine Is 'Warning' to West

The Kremlin said Thursday that an updated nuclear doctrine allowing Moscow to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states should be seen as a warning to the West.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday announced plans to broaden Russia's rules on the use of its nuclear stockpiles, allowing it to unleash a nuclear response in the event of a "massive" air attack.

The proposals would also permit Moscow to respond with nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states, where they were being supported by nuclear powers — a clear reference to Ukraine and its Western backers.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the planned changes "must be considered a specific signal."

"A signal that warns these countries of the consequences if they participate in an attack on our country by various means, not necessarily nuclear," Peskov told reporters.

Without mentioning Ukraine by name, Peskov said Russia's "nuclear deterrence is being adjusted on account of elements of tension that are developing along the perimeter of our borders."

He also said there was "no question" of Russia boosting its nuclear arsenal.

The proposed changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine, which Putin himself has the power to approve, come as Ukraine is seeking permission from Western allies to use long-range precision weaponry to strike targets deep inside Russia — so far to no avail.

Kyiv says it is necessary to target Russia's airfields and military infrastructure that it uses to launch attacks on Ukraine, though the White House is cautious about enabling further escalation.

The West has accused Putin of irresponsible nuclear saber-rattling throughout the Ukraine war, with the Kremlin leader having issued multiple threats about Moscow's willingness to deploy its nuclear weapons.


Google Restricts Account Creation in Russia, Digital Ministry Says

Google has restricted the creation of new accounts inside Russia, state media reported Thursday, citing Russia’s Digital Communications Ministry. The Moscow Times reports

Authorities said that Telecom operators reported a “significant decrease in the number of SMS messages sent by” Google to users in Russia, referring to messages the tech company uses to verify new account creation.

While two-factor authentication via SMS for existing Google accounts remains functional, the Digital Communications Ministry warned that this service may not continue indefinitely. It advised users to back up their data, consider switching to alternative authentication methods or move to domestic services instead of Google.

Earlier this month, users in Russia reported that they could no longer register new Google accounts using Russian phone numbers. However, according to some reports, problems with that began months earlier.

Meanwhile, in August, Russian users began experiencing widespread outages on YouTube, followed by slower loading speeds across the country.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, authorities have accused YouTube and Google of spreading “terrorist” anti-war content, fueling speculation that the video-streaming website might be blocked entirely.


NEWS WORLDWIDE

Biden announces $8 billion in military aid for Ukraine

U.S. President Joe Biden announced more than $8 billion in military assistance for Ukraine on Thursday to help Kyiv "win this war" against Russian invaders, using a visit by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to make a major commitment. Reuters reported on Thursday.

The aid includes the first shipment of a precision-guided glide bomb called the Joint Standoff Weapon, with a range of up to 81 miles (130 km). The medium-range missile gives Ukraine a major upgrade to the weapons it is using to strike Russian forces, allowing the Ukrainians to do it at safer distances.

The bomb, capable of striking targets with high accuracy, is to be dropped from fighter jets. Biden will not announce that Washington would let Ukraine use U.S. missiles to hit targets deeper in Russia, a U.S. official said.

Supporting Ukraine, which Russia invaded in February 2022, has been a U.S. top priority, Biden said in a statement.

"That is why, today, I am announcing a surge in security assistance for Ukraine and a series of additional actions to help Ukraine win this war," said Biden, who leaves office in January.

The bulk of the new aid, $5.5 billion, is to be allocated before Monday's end of the U.S. fiscal year, when the funding authority is set to expire. Another $2.4 billion is under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which allows the administration to buy weapons for Ukraine from companies rather than pull them from U.S. stocks.

This will provide Ukraine with additional air defense, unmanned aerial systems and air-to-ground munitions, as well as strengthen Ukraine's defense industrial base and support its maintenance and sustainment requirements, Biden said.

Under his plan, the president said, the Defense Department will refurbish and provide Ukraine with an additional Patriot air defense battery and more Patriot missiles.

Biden ordered the Pentagon to expand training for Ukrainian F-16 pilots, including by supporting the training of an additional 18 pilots next year.

Zelenskyy thanked Biden and the U.S. Congress for the new military aid package, saying Ukraine would use it "in the most efficient and transparent manner".

"I am grateful to the United States for providing the items that are most critical to protecting our people," Zelenskiy said on X, mentioning the Patriot battery, drones and long-range missiles.


REPUBLICAN CRITICISM OF ZELENSKYY

Before meeting Biden at midday (1600 GMT), Zelenskyy is due to meet Democratic and Republican leaders at the Capitol. Reuters reports

Ukraine's defense has largely received bipartisan support in the U.S., but it was not clear how many Republicans would make time to sit down with Zelenskyy amid rising criticism of his government from party leaders, including Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate.

Trump has been criticizing the Ukrainian president as he campaigns for the Nov. 5 election and, at least for now, turned down a request from Zelenskyy for a meeting.

The former president was sharply critical of Zelenskyy on Wednesday, telling a campaign rally in North Carolina, "We continue to give billions of dollars to a man who refused to make a deal, Zelenskyy."

Trump also blamed Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, his Democratic presidential opponent, for allowing Russia's invasion.

Many congressional Republicans have been furious about Zelenskyy's visit on Sunday to a munitions factory in Scranton, Pennsylvania, where Biden grew up. The Republican-led House of Representatives Oversight Committee opened an investigation into Zelenskyy's trip.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican who is not expected to meet Zelenskyy on Thursday, demanded that he fire his ambassador to Washington for planning the Scranton trip, although he told reporters this demand was not a threat to oppose military aid.


MILITARY & TECH

Pentagon Unveils $375 Million Aid for Ukraine, the AGM-158 JASSM Cruise Missiles May Be Included

The United States has announced a new $375 million military aid package for Ukraine, delivered through the Presidential Drawdown Authority, meaning the equipment is sourced from existing Pentagon stockpiles. Prior to this announcement, there had been widespread speculation about the package’s potential contents. Defense Express reports.

There were rumors that the aid might include the AGM-158 JASSM cruise missiles or AGM-154 JSOW precision-guided bombs, which could theoretically be adapted into long-range cruise missiles for Ukrainian use. However, the official contents of the package are as follows:

  • Air-to-ground munitions;

  • Ammunition for the HIMARS, 155 mm, and 105 mm artillery systems,

  • The Javelin anti-tank missiles, AT-4 grenade launchers, TOW anti-tank missiles;

  • The M1117 armored vehicles, MRAPs, light tactical vehicles, armored bridge layers;

  • Patrol boats;

  • Small arms, engineering equipment, ammunition, spare parts, and auxiliary equipment.

The inclusion of air-to-ground munitions is notable, as this term is being used for the first time in the U.S. aid packages. Previously, “precision aerial munitions” phrase was used, which covered guided aerial weapons like the AGM-88 HARM, JDAM-ER, and SDB. This shift in terminology suggests the possible introduction of new munitions intended for aircraft targeting ground positions, possibly indicating the provision of the AGM-158 JASSM or AGM-154 JSOW.

. . .-- Despite this, the quantities of some other items can be estimated. For instance, the package includes additional 150 M1117 armored vehicles, 9 bridge layers, and over 10 patrol boats. Many other items remain unspecified or are listed in general terms, such as “over 100” or “over 1000”, which remains consistent with prior packages.


Grumpy Here - Reuters citing information from the Pentagon reported on Sep 26 that the JSOW was included in the latest package announced by Biden.


Russia modifies Shahed drones with Starlink antennas

Ukrainian forces have reportedly destroyed a Russian Shahed-136 long-range attack drone equipped with a Starlink satellite communication terminal. Defence Blog reports

The terminal is believed to provide a stable satellite communication link for the transmission of data, such as photos, videos, and telemetry information, potentially enhancing the drone’s effectiveness in reconnaissance and strike missions.

The discovery, first reported by Ukrainian military sources, raises questions about Russia’s use of commercial satellite technology to improve the operational flexibility of its unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

One possible application of the Starlink-equipped drone is to enable real-time control of the Shahed UAV during reconnaissance missions. This would allow operators to adjust their targeting based on live intelligence gathered in proximity to the objective.

“This capability presents a new challenge, as it allows the enemy to select targets dynamically during a mission,” one Ukrainian official said, emphasizing the potential risk posed to operational airfields and other critical infrastructure.

By integrating Starlink, Russian forces could theoretically extend the range of communication between the operator and the drone, bypassing traditional radio-frequency control systems that can be disrupted or jammed. The satellite link offers more resilient communication, even in contested or jammed environments.

“If these drones can now be manually controlled with satellite support, they become even more dangerous,” one military noted, pointing out that the Shahed drones have already been a significant threat in previous strikes.

The Shahed-136, originally an Iranian-made drone, has been widely used by Russian forces in Ukraine for kamikaze-style attacks. The addition of satellite communication capabilities could enhance the drone’s accuracy, making it a more formidable weapon in Russia’s aerial campaign.


New Russian long-range drone falls into Ukrainian hands

Residents of Ukraine’s Sumy region, near the border with Russia, recently found a new Russian long-range drone, identified as the “Gerbera.” Defence Blog reports

The discovery, made in an open field, prompted immediate action from local authorities, with bomb disposal units swiftly dispatched to the scene. Upon investigation, the drone was determined to pose no immediate threat, though its presence has raised concerns about the evolving use of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) by Russian forces.

“The drone itself was not armed, but it’s important to remember that enemy UAVs are often equipped with explosive devices,” said Ihor Cherniak, head of the Sumy region’s bomb disposal unit. “If you find a suspicious object, especially in open areas, do not attempt to move or examine it yourself.”

The Gerbera drone complements the widely deployed Iranian-designed Shahed long-range attack drones. The Gerbera, like its predecessor, features a large delta wing, but with cranked leading edges. Unlike the Shahed, which has horizontal stabilizers on the wingtips, the Gerbera uses a more conventional single vertical tailfin, located just ahead of a single pusher propeller powered by an internal combustion engine.

Preliminary Ukrainian assessments suggest that the Gerbera has a wingspan of around 2 meters (6.5 feet), slightly smaller than the Geran-2, which spans about 2.5 meters (8.2 feet). Its versatility could allow it to serve in multiple roles, including strike, reconnaissance, or electronic warfare, depending on its payload.

The discovery of the Gerbera drone adds to growing evidence of Russia’s efforts to diversify its drone capabilities in the conflict. While the Shahed drones have been used extensively for one-way attacks, the Gerbera’s design suggests a broader range of applications, including potential jamming or reconnaissance missions.

Ukraine’s military intelligence is currently analyzing the drone to determine its full capabilities.


That’s it for today’s Draft folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing, its free!


Feel free to share this update with your friends. Heroyam Slava!

RELATED

Top Republican Mike Johnson wants Ukrainian ambassador to US Oksana Markarova fired, ahead of Zelenskiy visit

 

Speaker of US Congress demands dismissal of Ukraine’s Ambassador Markarova and accuses her of interfering in election



Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, addressed a statement to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, demanding the immediate dismissal of Ukraine's Ambassador to the US, Oksana Markarova, due to alleged interference in the US election.
House speaker wants Ukrainian ambassador fired over Zelensky's Pennsylvania  trip | The Independent
  • Johnson published a corresponding statement on his page in the X social network.

The Speaker accused Markarova of having organized Zelenskyy's visit to a plant in Pennsylvania where weapons for Ukraine are produced.
 
Zelenskyy was accompanied by representatives of the Democratic Party, but no Republicans were invited. 
Johnson said that Zelenskyy's visit was "clearly a pre-election campaign and clearly interference in the election."


US House Speaker demands dismissal of Ukraine's Ambassador over ''election  interference'' | Ukrainska Pravda

"This short-sighted and deliberate political move has resulted in Republicans losing confidence in Ambassador Markarova's ability to serve this country fairly and effectively as a diplomat. She must be removed from office immediately," 
Johnson said in a statement.

In conclusion, the Speaker noted that support for ending the war in Ukraine continues to be bipartisan, but this situation can "taint" them.

Top Republican wants Ukrainian ambassador to US fired, ahead of Zelenskiy visit 


"Support for ending Russia's war against Ukraine continues to be bipartisan, but our relationship is unnecessarily scrutinized and needlessly tarnished, when candidates who lead the first place in the presidential election from the Republican Party are targeted in the media by officials in your government," Johnson wrote.
"These cases must not be repeated," he concluded.



It will be recalled that sources close to Donald Trump said that he has no plans to meet with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.


At the same time, Zelenskyy explained that the "victory plan" prepared by him, which he will present, in particular, to US President Joe Biden, is a plan to strengthen Ukraine and does not require cooperation from the Russians to achieve success.

US House speaker urges Zelenskyy to remove Ukrainian ambassador
US House speaker urges Zelenskyy to remove Ukrainian ambassador
Russian Market on X: "The U.S. House Speaker is demanding that Zelensky  fire Ukraine's Ambassador to the United States, Oksana Markarova, for  interfering in the U.S. elections. Do you agree? https://t.co/Lja5VqBtyo" /


TOP STORIES
Top US Republican wants Ukrainian ambassador fired over Zelenskiy factory  visit | Reuters

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Kamala Harris, Volodymyr Zelenskyy discuss ongoing war in Ukraine | FOX ...

Hmmm, there's a long delay - took a  while of 17 minutes in a 26-44-minute media appearance to get their acts together