...No one can tell the future
28 September 2024
ABROAD POV: The Electoral College & American Politics 2024 | WELT
Nobody can look to the future. Forecasts were often wrong before elections, Trump's victory in 2016, for example, did not predict „FiveThirtyEight “, although the portal is usually very reliable.
In addition, even small changes in the political mood can affect the election.
If you want to know the result, you have to be patient.
The tightest presidential election in these US states has been decided for 60 years
From Sebastian Gubernator, Jutta Setzer
In the surveys, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are fighting a tight race. Whoever wins the election decides in seven states. WELT explains what the situation in the Swing States looks like – and to whom the demoscopes currently attribute somewhat higher chances.
A few weeks before the US presidential election, only one thing is certain: it will be tight.
According to Harry Enten, a CNN survey expert, the tightest race for the White House has been running for more than 60 years.
Ducks recently referred to it that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris separated at most a few percentage points in the surveys of the past few weeks.
Ducks recently referred to it that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris separated at most a few percentage points in the surveys of the past few weeks.
- A struggle for the presidency was so scarce last in 1960 when John F. Kennedy competed against Richard Nixon and won. Before all the other elections since then, a candidate had a clear lead for at least several weeks.
Nevertheless, everything is still open. When it comes to who the Americans would choose, the candidates are so close together that there is hardly a clear lead. In a recently published CNN / SRS survey,
- Harris comes to 48 percent, just one point more than Trump.
- The error rate is given as three percentage points.
Not the candidate with the most votes wins, but the one with the most voters. Anyone who receives the majority of the votes of the population in a state unites the votes of all delegates of this state.
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Democrats and Republicans are currently focusing on seven so-called swing states:
- Wisconsin,
- Michigan,
- Pennsylvania,
- Nevada,
- Georgia,
- Arizona and
- North Carolina.
The portal „FiveThirtyEight “, named after the 538 voters in the so-called Electoral College, collects surveys from various institutes, weights them and calculates average values from them.
The following graphic shows how the values developed in the Swing States.
The desired state appears with a click on the selection menu.To become US president, a candidate needs at least 270 voters.
- „FiveThirtyEight “ combines these surveys with other data, such as the economic situation, and with political factors such as the fact that candidates tend to do well in their home countries.
- From this, the demoscopes calculate the probability with which a state will fall to a candidate.
- No forecast is yet possible in most Swing States; in Michigan and Wisconsin, experts see a probability of more than 60 percent for a Harris victory.
- Based on the states that experience has shown will vote democratically or republican, the „New York Times “ currently assumes that Harris has 226 voters on their side.
- Trump would therefore come to 219.
- The election results in the Swing States decide on the remaining votes.
Depending on their size, the states make up different numbers of voters. So it's not just about how many swing states a candidate wins, but also what they are.
Despite all the uncertainties, if you believe the surveys, Harris is currently leading the northern Swing States, Trump is ahead in most of the southern states.„FiveThirtyEight “ currently predicts 286 votes in Electoral College for Harris and 252 for Trump.
- Harris would win the election.
- It would also be conceivable that Trump would receive the southern states and additionally Nevada.
- Then Harris would come to 270 voters, only two more than their rival – it would be the tightest victory since the presidential election in 1876.
- In other constellations, Trump would win the election.
Statisticians also calculate the probability that candidates will get a majority in Electoral College.
- At the moment, Harris can give herself a little more hope with 58 percent
- – the chances for Trump are a good 41 percent but far from bad.
After all, forecasts are uncertain and no one knows how the mood in the Swing States will change.
„FiveThirtyEight “ estimates the chance that Harris will win a landslide and receive more than 350 votes in Electoral College at least 20 percent.
Trump is five percent.
Nobody can look to the future.
Nobody can look to the future.
Forecasts were often wrong before elections, Trump's victory in 2016, for example, did not predict „FiveThirtyEight “, although the portal is usually very reliable.
In addition, even small changes in the political mood can affect the election. If you want to know the result, you have to be patient.
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